1. CITY OF GREATER GEELONG

2. OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION ISSUE 1: Visitation Data [NVS/IVS] ISSUE 2: Economic Contribution of Tourism to Economies [Dept of RET report] ISSUE 3: Accommodation Data [Survey of Tourist Accommodation] ISSUE 4:Economic Impact of Infrastructure Investment

3. CITY OF GREATER GEELONG

4. 656,000 domestic overnight visitors 29,000 international visitors 1,088,000 domestic daytrip visitors Total Visitors: 1,773,000 OFFICAL DATA NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL VISITOR SURVEY (TRA)

5. Purpose: Estimate visitation to Phillip Island Understand the holiday home sector Estimate the economic impact of the local economy Program Survey of Holiday Home Owners Accommodation Audit PAVE (Visitor Modelling) LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM: BASS COAST TOURISM AND ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 2009

6. Urban Enterprise local research tells us: 790,000 visitors staying in holiday homes 435,000 visitors staying in commercial accommodation 123,000 staying with friends and relatives Total overnight visitors data: 1.3 million Total overnight visitors NVS/IVS data: 656,000? Other data to verify results 480,000 visitors to the Penguin Parade (200,000+ international). IVS DATA: 29,000? LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM RESULTS

7. IVS Data is unreliable at the tourism region level and LGA level (except for Melbourne) NVS Domestic overnight data often understates visitation for regions that have a large holiday home sector or a large VFR market NVS Domestic overnight data is often unreliable at the LGA level due to low sample size It is difficult to assess the accuracy of daytrip data NVS data is good for benchmarking between regions, however if we want to understand the economic impact of tourism, verifying data at the local level is important KEY FINDINGS – NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL VISITOR SURVEY DATA

8. CITY OF GREATER GEELONG

9. 2.4% of Output in the Peninsula Region attributed to tourism OFFICIAL DATA ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF TOURISM

10. Purpose: Understand the importance and profile of the Holiday Home Sector Estimate the economic impact of tourism in light of the disturbing Dept of RET results Program: Survey of Holiday Home Owners Accommodation Audit PAVE Modelling Economic Impact Assessment LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM MORNINGTON PENINSULA HOLIDAY HOMES RESEARCH AND TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT [DRAFT]

11. LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM RESULTS Dept of RET: $1.1B and 2.4% of Total Output $2.2 Billion in Direct and Indirect Expenditure 11,329 Total Jobs attributed to tourism 30% of Mornington Peninsula Jobs attributed to Tourism Data includes expenditure on holiday homes

12. KEY FINDINGS – DEPT OF RET MODELLING The RET model uses personal and business income as the basis for calculating total output, however in the case of MP personal income is mostly derived from outside of the region The research does not include holiday home expenditure as tourism related expenditure The modelling ignores jobs data, which is a more important local indicator on industry importance. – Large business that generates large $s may not have high flow on to the local economy For those who do not understand the geographic definition of the Peninsula Region, the data is misleading as it includes Frankston

13. CITY OF GREATER GEELONG

14. OFFICIAL DATA SURVEY OF TOURIST ACCOMMODATION (ABS) Survey of Tourist Accommodation Tells us: 17 Establishments in MRS 272 Guest Rooms Occupancy Rate of 34%

15. Purpose: To identify and promote opportunities for accommodation investment in Victoria To strengthen the argument and articulate demand for accommodation Program: Accommodation Audit Demand Assessment PAVE model Survey of Tourist Accommodation LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM MACEDON RANGES ACCOMMODATION STUDY

16. 821 guest rooms and over 2000 guest beds LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM RESULTS Survey of Tourist Accommodation: 272 Guest Rooms and 34% Occupancy

17. Data is good for Melbourne which has very large establishments Most of regional Victoria has small establishments, many of which do not operate on a purely commercial basis: Owner/occupiers, small motels The occupancy rates represent the poor quality of stock present in Regional Victoria The data does not differentiate on quality, scale, facilities and type of establishment The data paints a poor picture to potential investors SURVEY OF TOURIST ACCOMMODATION – KEY FINDINGS

18. CITY OF GREATER GEELONG

19. Purpose: Identify investment projects Identify the economic contribution of projects in the Great Ocean Road Program: Identify investment projects Identify project cost Identify likely number of ongoing jobs Use Replan to: – Identify short term impacts – Identify long term impacts LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM: GREAT OCEAN ROAD PRODUCT GAP AUDIT & REMPLAN

20. 6 specific tourism investment projects such as: Port Campbell & Lock Ard Interpretive Centre – Short term: $281M, 710 jobs, long term: $19M, 99 Jobs 3 Enabling infrastructure projects Great Ocean Walk – Short term: $21M, 71 jobs, long term ?? Great Ocean Road Upgrade: – Short term: $114M, $293 jobs, long term?? Avalon Airport – Short term: $32M, 32 Jobs, long term: $519M LOCAL RESEARCH PROGRAM RESULTS

21. Short term construction costs can be calculated easily using Remplan or other Input/ Output models Very difficult to predict the long term impact of infrastructure projects that are “Enablers” such as roads, tracks and trails Primary survey’s of visitors or businesses following completion of an infrastructure projects may assist to understand the impact KEY FINDINGS: ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTS FOR INFRASTURCTURE PROJECTS

22. Economic impact assessments are reliant on the quality of inputs such as visitation statistics, construction cost estimates and potential jobs. National Visitor Survey Data is a good starting point for regional data, however at the Local Government Level data should be scrutinised International Visitor Survey Data is dodgy for regional areas CONCLUSIONS

23. Survey of Tourist Accommodation data can be detrimental paints a detrimental picture of accommodation demand in Regional Victoria Local Government should consider using primary visitor surveys, business surveys and accommodation surveys to learn more about tourism industry CONCLUSIONS