1. PPA SUMMIT 2014 BMA HOUSE LONDON “Capital, Carbon &Efficiency-Trade offs in the Waste to Resources Transition” NOVEMBER 25 th 2014 Peter Jones OBE ecolateraljones@btinternet.com

3. ….where we are now…. A Semi-Circular Economy?

4. Structural Shifts in the “waste” Sector New TECHNOLOGY entrants attracted by tax “push” gate fees of £100 plus. Shift from gate fees to output sales of recyclate as capacity expands. Ripple out to wider “energy” markets due to structural disinvestment in Centralised networks. Entry of end market (non waste) players such as- DS Smith, Peel,Air Products, AMEC, Stobart, Supermarket logistics & parcels players.

5. UK Waste Mass in Millions of Tonnes 1997 2013 Landfill Organics 80 24 Collection (C+I) 80 40 Municipal 29 24 Recycling 1 16 Exports 1 14 Incineration 3 6 Compost 1 4 Landfill Aggregates 40 Sub10 AD 3 4 MRFs - 26 TOTAL 238 168

6. The Scale of Transformation- Carbon / Organics £m 1997 2013 Landfill 620 2000 (Tax 1536) Collection 320 200 Municipal 1400 1440 Recycling 60 1000 Incineration 300 800 Composting 200 800 Exports - 40 AD 100 170 MRFs - 1000 TOTAL 3000 7450

7. The Demise of the Major 8 1997 Sector GVA £4.1 bn. with Top 8 @ 28%- £1.2 bn. 2011 Sector GVA £10bn. with Top 8 @ 45% - £4.5 bn. 2014 Sector GVA £11.2bn. with Top 8 @ 35% Net of Landfill Tax - £3.2bn. £1.5bn held by “Fast 50” new entrants.

8. FIBRE COMPETITION Recovered Timber to domestic chip and Pellets Virgin timber to Power Stations RDF/SRF to mainland EU Cement & Power plants (Nil to 2.4m tpa in 2 years) Innovative Gasification routes Recovered timber to Nordics

9. ……… THE BEARS ARE WASTECOS, ENERGYCOS & LOGISTICS OPERATORS WHO’SE BEEN EATING MY PORRIDGE?

10. Energetic Subsidies p/Mw % share Coal 20 35% Oil 55 3% Gas 400 37% Electricity 600 Nuclear 3300 15% Renewables 5000 3% Source Blyth- EV.Lords Select Committee.

11. “Old McDonald’s Farm” at DECC Dedicated solid biomass Biomass co-firing Dedicated bio-liquids EFW Anaerobic Digestion Dedicated Biogas Gasification-Pyrolysis Renewable CHP……here a ROC, there a ROC, everywhere a ROC ROC.

12. The Lights Go Out??? Source: DTI

13. Farm Co-op AD Plant in Denmark Source: Greenfinch

14. WPC - TEES VALLEY GASIFIER Specifications: G65 model 1000 tpd Waste (330,000 tpa) 65,000 NM 3 per hour of syngas Status: Fabrication in Malaysia is complete Delivery to site in Q1 2013 Dimensions: Weight: 204 tonnes Height: 25 m Width: 9 m CAPEX £300m

15. 15 Industry Overview  Use of Recycled Content as a Proxy for Carbon Makes Us Uneasy  We Need “Push” Not “Pull”  With Limited Supply We Could End Up with “Recyclate Wars”  Certainly Do not want to Prioritise between Customers on Limited Recyclate Availability  Nor to be Asking Our Fibre Suppliers to do the Same

16.      kgs The Zero Waste Game Boomerang Note: Process emissions before net off energy incineration gasifier plasma anaerobic digestion aerobic composting landfill High Lo

17. LAST ONE STANDING -MARKET DRIVEN ECONOMICS 1.MAXIMISE ENERGETIC EFFICIENCY OF FEEDSTOCK CONVERSION 2.SELL OUTPUTS FOR THE HIGHEST VALUE per EMBEDDED GIGAJOULE 3.OPERATE WITH THE LOWEST CARBON FOOTPRINT FOR COLLECTION,PREPARATION AND TRANSITION (across the reverse logistics chain)

18. RISK BLOCKERS in Materials Erratic Government Strategies Subsidies rather than Tax Push No Integrated Data Capture strategy Incoherent Locational policies Multiplicity of measurement (tes./therms/kwh/litres/gj et al)

19. ADDRESS the WEAKNESSES Real time data Gj input taxes Carbon emissions taxes/credits Producer liability Sewage plants E-DOC Scrap £13 bn. fossil support Scrap renewables subsidies Flat rate Gj input taxes CO2 emissions taxes

20. Peter T. Jones O.B.E ecolateraljones@btinternet.com www.ecolateral.org