1. ISMOR 22 Paul Stoddart Operational Analysis Air Warfare Centre

2. Dstl

4. Measuring Progress in Air Operations

5. Measuring the E in EBO

6. Famous Person Quote “We only fully understand something when we can measure it” “We only fully understand something when we can measure it” Lord Kelvin

7. Measuring the E in EBO

8. Measure of Effectiveness answers the Commander’s question “How well are we doing?”

9. Why bother with MoEs?  After all, we win and we win quickly  Gulf 9140 days  Bosnia12 days  Kosovo78 days  Gulf 0328 days

11. Measuring the E in EBO

12. The Operational Cycle  O BSERVE  O RIENT  D ECIDE  A CT

13. The Operational Cycle  O BSERVE  O VER-REACT  D ENY  A POLOGISE

14. The operational loop ASSESS

15. The operational loop ASSESS DECIDE

16. The operational loop ASSESS PREP DECIDE

17. The operational loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE

18. The operational loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE

19. The operational loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE Practical Cognitive

20. The operational loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE Practical Cognitive

21. The operational loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE Practical Cognitive Slow Fast

22. Inside our own OODA loop ASSESS EXECUTE PREP DECIDE Practical Cognitive Slow Fast Inside our own OODA loop

23. Misplaced focus “Airmen have become driven by process not strategy”

24. Strategic Objective Strategy to Task

25. Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Strategy to Task

26. Tactical Objective 1.1 Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Strategy to Task

27. Tactical Objective 1.1 Tactical Task 1.1.1 Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Strategy to Task

28. Tactical Objective 1.1 Tactical Task 1.1.1 Action 1.1.1.1 Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Strategy to Task

29. Tactical Objective 1.1 Tactical Task 1.1.1 Action 1.1.1.1 Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Strategy to Task Measure of Effect 1 Measure of Effect Measure of Effect 2 Measure of Effect

30. Air Campaign - breakdown  Operational Objectivesx  Tactical Objectivesy  Tactical Tasksz  Targets/actionsseveral per TT  Total analysis taskHuge

31. Scoring method Score for any level = sum of scores for the next level down

32. Element 7 Element 6 Element 3 Element 4 Element 5 Element 1 Element 8 Element 2 System level modelling

33. Element 7 Element 6 Element 3 Element 4 Element 5 Element 1 Element 8 Weight Element 2 System level modelling

34. Element 7 Element 6 Element 3 Element 4 Element 5 Element 1 Element 8 IADS Effectiveness Weight Summing Weight Summing Element 2 System level modelling

35. Measuring the E in EBO

36. Know your enemy StudyORBATandORSYS

37. Outcome Spectrum

38. Potential solutions  Historical Analysis of operations and campaigns from an EB perspective  Build database of Historical Analysis findings

39. HA Database  What effects were sought?  What actions were taken?  What MoEs were used?  What effects actually resulted?  What effects should have been sought?  What actions should have been taken?  What MoEs should have been used?

40. Education, education, education  Educate airmen in EB-perspective Air Power history  Educate airmen to have same understanding of air power actions, effects and MoEs as they do of platforms and systems

41. “Culinary” EB  We have the books on nutrition: i.e. the doctrine  We have the place setting: i.e. the presentation of results  We do not have the cook book: i.e. the recipes, the ‘how to do it’

42. Balance of Knowledge ActionEffect ORBATORSYS DoctrineEB examples WeaponsEB MoEs

44. Scoring method Element result x weighting = score Aggregation of sub-level scores =result for ‘parent’ element at next higher level