1. Objective: Students will discover the role of public opinion polls in order to justify why the government needs to know what people are thinking. Warm Up: (1) Why is it important for the government to utilize public opinion polls when making decisions?

3. 1.What is the thesis of this cartoon? 1.How responsible should politicians be for the health of the economy?

4. What is Public Opinion?

5. Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things o Not easy to measure o The opinions of active and knowledgeable people carry more weight Public Opinion Polls: an investigation into public opinion conducted by interviewing a random sample of people o Usually scientific…but be careful!

6. Measuring Public Opinion The history of opinion pollshistory o In the 1800s - straw polls (unofficial votes) o By the 1930s - modern and relatively accurate polling techniques developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and othersGallup

7. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information The Role of Polls in American Democracy o help politicians figure out public preferences o Does it make politicians think more about following the polls? o The wording of questions makes a difference  Are questions ‘loaded’?

8. Modern Polling Characteristics * Sampling: participants must have an equal chance of being chosen for the pollSampling - Need a “Random” sampleRandom * Valid Questions: questions need to be phrased and ordered in a fair way (clear, fair, unbiased) * How Poll is Taken: respondent needs to have some knowledge of issues; pollsters appearance/ tone can’t influence responses - methods include: phone [use of Interactive Voice Response (IVR)], mail, and in-person interviews

9. Modern Polling Characteristics * Analysis & Results Reporting: Many factors must be observed Margin of Error (MOE): The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll o For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a margin of error of only +/- 3%

10. What happens when the sample size increases? Sample Size Sampling Error (+ or -) * 2,430  2.0 * 1,536  2.5 * 1,067  3.0 * 600  4.0 * 150  8.0 * 42  15.0

11. What do you think…think 1. What point is Jon Stewart trying to make? 2. Do these polls used in the video clip accurately reflect American public opinion? Why?

12. Polling Question Comparison Question 1: Should laws be passed to eliminate all possibilities of special interests giving huge sums of money to candidates? Yes = 99% No = 1% Question 2: Should laws be passed to prohibit interest groups from contributing to campaigns, or do groups have a right to contribute to the candidate they support? Prohibit Contribution: 40% Groups Have Right: 55%

13. Another Shaky Question A. Sometimes you hear it said there should be a law to ensure that a certain number of federal contracts go to minority contractors. Do you favor such a law? Favor Law: 43% Oppose Law: 57% B. The Congress of the US—both the House of Representatives and the Senate—have passed a law to ensure that a certain number of federal contracts go to minority contractors. Do you favor such a law? Favor Law: 57% Oppose Law: 43%

14. Problems with Polls Yes/no answers pose problems when the issues admit to shades of gray Often people will attempt to please the interviewer Sometimes people don’t really know anything about the topic Push polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by pretending to be a polltaker Exit Polling…

15. Technology and Opinion Polls The advent of telephone polling o Easier and less expensive than door-to-door polling o But many entities are conducting “polls” and “market research” so nonresponse rates have skyrocketed o Cell Phone Only Homes  Young people  Hard to know who has cell phone and home phone #’s Internet polling o Many unscientific “nonpolls” are seen on the Internet o In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling could escalate as did telephone poll rates

16. What are the differences?

17. Exit Polls * Definition: interviewing voters on Election Day as they leave (exit) the voting site (1) predict winners before votes are tallied (2) provide valuable information about voters and their preferences  helps us understand the outcome Edison Media Research  provide exit polling for ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News

18. Explain how this cartoon is making a reference to Exit Polls.

19. Exit Poll Problems * Reliable data? - Florida in 2000 * Certain people asked to participate more than others? * Should we predict winners before some states finish voting?

22. Cleavages in Public Opinion

23. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior * Cleavages: characteristics that creates division between groups when it comes to beliefs and voting behaviors o Demographic influences - education and economic status o Religious influences - denominations, groups such as evangelicals o Race and ethnicity influences o Gender influences o Geographical influences

24. What are some of the problems with public opinion polls?

25. African American and White Opinion

26. Figure 6.5 How Americans Participate in Politics? Class, Inequality, and Participation How might this data correlate with Public Opinion data?

27. The Gender Gap Men have become increasingly Republican since the mid-1960s Women have continued to identify with the Democratic Party at approximately the same rate since the early 1950s This reflects attitudinal differences between men and women about the size of government, gun control, social programs, and gay rights

28. Generational Gaps on the Issues Survey by Washington Post/Henry J. Kaiser Foundation/Harvard University, August 2-September 1, 2002, as reported in Elizabeth Hamel et al., "Younger Voters," Public Perspective, May/June 2003, p. 11.

29. Identify Ideological Voting Trends… Using the data on the next slide, describe the ideological voting trends in the following categories: (1) Gender (2) Race (3) Educational Attainment (4) Religion (5) Family Income (6) Size of Community

31. Public Opinion & Public Policy

32. Public Opinion and Policy Making General public believes that leadership should pay attention to popular opinion Limits on government action  Public opinion is strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies o Limits of polling…

34. Public OpinionPublic Opinion! This video clip is a satire about polling. What is the message of this satire?