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Understanding the Impacts of Incremental Gas Supply on the Flow Dynamics Across the North American Grid Canadian Institute Vancouver, BC November 20, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Understanding the Impacts of Incremental Gas Supply on the Flow Dynamics Across the North American Grid Canadian Institute Vancouver, BC November 20, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Understanding the Impacts of Incremental Gas Supply on the Flow Dynamics Across the North American Grid Canadian Institute Vancouver, BC November 20, 2006 James Kendell, Director, Natural Gas Division Energy Information Administration (EIA) James.Kendell@eia.doe.gov www.eia.doe.gov

2 U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumpti on, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 15% 21% Net Imports Consumption Production HistoryProjections 22.4 18.8 26.9 20.9 Average Wellhead Price (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 2004 2030 2004 Dollars $5.49 $5.92 Nominal Dollars $5.49 $11.20 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

3 Sources of Increment al U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2004-2030 Growth in Alaskan Production Growth in Unconventional Growth in LNG Imports Base Production (all sources) (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

4 Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Region, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Northeast Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mountain Southwest Mid-continent Gulf Offshore Alaska West Canada Elba Is. Cove Point Everett Canada LNG Gulf LNG East Canada 1.70 0.59 -1.07 -0.30 0.46 1.39 -0.11 -0.26 Pacific Offshore -0.03 0.62 0.56 -2.15 0.08 0.71 0.44 2.48 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Negative Positive Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Region, 2004-2030

5 U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Census Division, 2004 and 2030 U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Census Division, 2004 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

6 Pacific Census Division Natural Gas Consumption, 2003-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Electric Power Industrial Commercial Residential History Projections

7 Natural Gas Consumed for Canadian Oil Sands Production, 2005-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Office of Oil and Gas

8 Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Capabilities into California, Oregon, and Washington (million cubic feet per day) 6,000 0 2,000 8,000 10,000 Capacity as of November 2005 4,000 From Canada From Central Region To Mexico To/From Central Region From Southwest From Central and Southwest Regions Source: EIA, Office of Oil and Gas

9 Primary Flows Secondary Flows Pipeline Border Crossing Specific LNG Terminals Generic LNG Terminals Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions and Network Source: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Pacific (9) Mountain (8) CA (12) AZ/NM (11) W. North Central (4) W. South Central (7) E. South Central (6) E. North Central (3) S. Atlantic (5) FL (10) Mid. Atlantic (2) New Engl. (1) W. Canada E. Canada MacKenzie Alaska Canada Offshore and LNG Mexico Bahamas Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions and Network

10 Natural Gas Flows into the Pacific Region, 1990-2030 Natural Gas Flows into the Pacific Region, 1990-2030 (billion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

11 Natural Gas Flows into California, 1990-2030 Natural Gas Flows into California, 1990-2030 (billion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

12 U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Price in Three Cases, 1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) Reference High Price Low Price Projections History $5.92 $7.71 $4.97 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

13 Natural Gas Production in Three Price Cases, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

14 U.S. Net Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas in Three Price Cases,1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Reference Low Price High Price ProjectionsHistory Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

15 Natural Gas Flows into the West Coast in the High Price Case, 1990- 2030 Natural Gas Flows into the West Coast in the High Price Case, 1990-2030 (billion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

16 U.S. Net Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas in Three Technology Cases, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Slow Reference Rapid History Projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Slow Reference Rapid

17 Natural Gas Flows into West Coast in the Rapid Technology Case, 1990- 2030 Natural Gas Flows into West Coast in the Rapid Technology Case, 1990-2030 (billion cubic feet) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

18 Periodic Reports James Kendell James.kendell@eia.doe.gov Periodic Reports Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006 Examples of Special Analyses “Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2006 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec. 2003 www.eia.doe.gov

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