1. FAOCGIARWMO

2. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Fundamental Questions

3. Examples of human activities leading to GEC: Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production Global Environmental Change

4. Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

5. Activities Producing food Processing & packaging food Distributing & retailing food Consuming food and Outcomes of the activities contributing to: Food Security Environment Other societal interests both influenced by the interactions between and within biogeophysical and human environments (“drivers”) Food Systems

6. FOOD UTILISATION Food System Outcomes related to Food Security & Key Elements FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange

7. To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Goal

8. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Research Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support

9. 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research i.Food Systems Concepts ii.Vulnerability Concepts iii.Scenario Construction iv.Decision Support Systems 2. Food Systems Research in i.Indo-Gangetic Plain ii.Caribbean iii.Southern Africa Research Approaches

10. Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography Economics Socio-political context Cultural context Science & Technology Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenarios for analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nutrient availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level Food System OUTCOMES contributing to: Food SecurityEnvironment & Other interests Naturally- induced drivers e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Interactions among DRIVERS Societal Interests (as relating to Food Systems)

11. 1.What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems? 2.What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses? 3.What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional- level factors relevant to food systems? Scenario Development questions

12. 1.Improve understanding of the underlying interactions between food systems and GEC 2.Analyse elements of global scenarios important for regional- level issues 3.Determine appropriate methods for linking global scenarios to regional scale 4.Develop conceptual frameworks for scenario construction at regional scale 5.Construct a set of prototype scenarios for the Caribbean region as a proof of concept ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional food security policy formulation (2005)

13. Two possibilities for linking scenarios across scales (1) 1.Take full stories of global scenarios and “translate” into regional stories. 2. Develop regional scenarios based on: rationale for choosing global scenarios the assumptions global scenarios make and the outcomes of global scenarios ensuring that outcomes of regional scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global scenarios.

14. Apr:Rome WS on methods for multi-scale linking in scenarios May-Aug:Review global scenario approaches for GECAFS interests Plan Caribbean Scenarios exercise Sep:Regional WS1: Outline main uncertainties of Caribbean Scenarios for GECAFS research Outline Focal Questions Develop first draft scenarios set Sep-Nov: Develop prototype Caribbean scenarios using two cross- scale methods Nov: Regional WS2: Finalise prototype scenarios Compare cross-scale methods Dec: Finalise Report and develop follow-up ICSU Caribbean research will feed into proposed SANREM work ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional food security policy formulation