Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Food Security"— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Change and Food Security in the CaribbeanUsing scenario analyses for decision supportAdrian TrotmanChief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ag)Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
2State of agriculture and food in the Caribbean Agriculture’s contribution to the economies of CARICOM states have been on the decline since the 1970sNet agricultural trade moved from being a surplus of US$2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft document 2007)Losses in preferential markets for traditional crops in EuropeExcept for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states became net importers of foodThe Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life into the agriculture and related sectors
3Recent Climate-related Impacts Flooding in Guyana in affected 37 % of the population, 34 deaths, approximately US$55 million in damage to the agricultural sector. A similar, but smaller-scale event the following year resulted in total losses to the sector of US$22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006).In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US$40 million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern for 30,720 ‘employees’ (OECS 2004). Spice industry set back 10 years.An intense drought event in caused US$6 million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007).Coral reef deterioration, fish kills
4Projected Climate Change 90% chance that temperatures will rise across the Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oClikely (66%) that sea levels will rise in the Caribbean during this centuryrainfall is likely (66%) to decrease in the Greater Antilles (particularly in June & August) – however, projected decrease in annual precipitation in the region of 5 to 15% in Caribbean basinWITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN
5highlighting CARICOM members The Caribbean Regionhighlighting CARICOM members
6Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues, food security policy prioritiesand development goalsCaribbeanInitial effort in identifying which S/holders are relevant and important: different in each regionThree regional examples of stakeholder concerns about GEC; also list of food policy goals (note that may not be connected).IssuesIncreasing extreme eventsChanges in sea currents & level‘Ridge-to-Reef’ impacts of land degradationKey Policy GoalsIncreasing food self-sufficiencyImproving trade policies & competitivenessImplementing CSM and the CSMEExample StakeholdersNational ag, env & tourism ministriesRegional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA)Regional research bodies(FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)
7Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGsGEC DRIVERSChanges in:Land cover & soils, AtmosphericComp., Climate variability & means,Water availability & quality,Nutrient availability & cycling,Biodiversity, Sea currents& salinity, Sea levelFood System ACTIVITIESProducingProcessing & PackagingDistributing & RetailingConsuming‘Natural’DRIVERSe.g. VolcanoesSolar cyclesFood System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, EnvironmentalSecurity, and other Societal InterestsDRIVERS’ InteractionsSocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,Cultural contextScience & TechnologyFoodUtilisationFoodAccessSocialWelfareFoodAvailabilityEnviron CapitalSocioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesionSource: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. (2006) A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.
8GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Funded by ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept3 main starting issuesExtreme weather, climate, sea levelLand use esp. “ridge-to-reef”Regional governance & CSMEPreferential trade
9GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Who was involved?~30 people; 2 workshops & writing tasks over 6 monthsSocial and natural scientists from regional research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH)Social and natural scientists from national research institutions (e.g. universities, national labs)Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g. CARICOM, IICA)Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of Ag)International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP)GECAFS scenarios group
10Environmental Management GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Based on the Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentWorld DevelopmentGlobalization RegionalizationGlobal OrchestrationOrder from StrengthProactive ReactiveEnvironmental ManagementTechnoGardenAdapting MosaicSource: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)
11Main Climate-related Drivers Same across the GECAFS Caribbean ScenariosGlobal CaribbeanCaribbean Order from StrengthCaribbean TechnoGardenCaribbean Adapting MosaicTemperature MeanGlobal: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree CelsiusRainfall Mean / VariabilityGlobal: Increase globally, but diverse spatial patterns Caribbean: Large uncertainty (potential: decrease in average, but increase in intensity)Hurricanes, Tropical depressionsGlobal: Increase with increase sea temperature (maybe) Caribbean: Uncertainty (potential: increase in frequency)Sea levelGlobal: Increase by 25 to 30 cm Caribbean: Increase by 25 to 30 cm -> more storm surges, salt-water intrusionSource: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
12Main Socioeconomic Drivers Differ across the GECAFS Caribbean ScenariosPopulation growth & fertility ratesLife expectancy & Age structureMigration (rural-urban)Economic GrowthEquityFinancial flowsUnemploymentRegional CooperationInvestments into agri science & technologyInvestments into human capitalDominant agricultural food policySubsidiesImport / Export Regulations & Focus(Relative) Price of foodTransport costTourismKind of Governance, Political AgendasEmergence of new markets (India, China; Green markets)US - Cuba SituationSecurity situationSource: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
13Other GEC DriversConsequently differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios(example for land use change)Global CaribbeanCaribbean Order from StrengthCaribbean TechnoGardenCaribbean Adapting MosaicLand Use ChangeHigh land use intensity plus abandoned marginal areasAgriculture not for staple food, but niche marketsNew urban areas on ‘good’ agricultural areasSome ‘land zoning’At first like GC scenario, then shift, leads to mixMarginal land to provide basic food needsUse of good land for cash-crop areas, follow profits / exportSpecialized agriculture for niche marketsLand use highly intensive, very productive agricultureProactive land managementMore ‘integrated’ agriculture, more use of current marginal.More small-scale, yet intensive, production of niche productsCurrent marginal lands will be brought into productionSource: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
14Analysis of Food Security Outcomes Components & Elements (reminder)Food SecurityFOOD UTILISATIONFOODACCESSAffordabilityAllocationPreferenceNutritional ValueSocial ValueFood SafetyAVAILABILITYProductionDistributionExchangeFood Systems comprise a number of activities related to food production and preservation; food processing and packaging; food distribution and retail; and food consumption. In addition to underpinning food security, these activities give rise to a number of other outcomes many of which contribute to and influence other societal goals such as employment, health and social and environmental conditions.
15Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES  Developments described per scenario for eachFood Security element (example for Food Access component)Food AccessGlobal CaribbeanCaribbean Order from StrengthCaribbean TechnoGardenCaribbean Adapting MosaicAffordabilityLower food pricesIncome increaseFish price goes up, due to limited availabilityLower economic growth, less incomeincrease in food prices, also of staple food GEC shocksIncomes increaseDifferent national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over timeModerate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increasesAllocationetc…PreferenceSource: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
16Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES  Developments systematically assessed per scenario for eachFood Security element (example for Food Access component)Food AccessGlobal CaribbeanCaribbean Order from StrengthCaribbean TechnoGardenCaribbean Adapting MosaicAffordability+---Lower food prices (+) Income increase (+)Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-)Lower economic growth, less income (--)Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-)Incomes increase (+)Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time (-)Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-)AllocationOPreference+ / -Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
17Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES  Assessments plotted based on FS conceptsper scenarioGlobal CaribbeanProduction++Food SafetyIncrease+DistributionCaribbean Order From Strength_Social Value_ _DecreaseInter-Regional ExchangeCaribbean TechnoGardenIntra-Caribbean ExchangeNutritional ValueCaribbean Adapting MosaicPreferenceAffordabilityAllocationSource: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
18GECAFS Scenarios Approach key outcomesraises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholdersraises awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchersintegrates information from different fields to explore possible developmentssystematically structures debate relating to environmental issues and food securitybuilds science-policy regional “team” based on shared vision, understanding and trusttests downscaling methodswill be extended to other regions under GEF proposal (in prep)