1. Casey McCabe Global Change: Biome Perspective

2. (Illustration by Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation.)

3.  Carbon sink through primary production  Stores less than boreal and tropical  51% in living biomass  37% in dead wood, litter and soil  Important for regional carbon budgets (Bonan 2008, Pan et al. 2011)

4.  Contribution to global water cycle and cloud formation  Rates vary across forest types  Forests and crops have higher evaporative cooling than grasslands  Forests have l0w albedo compared to grassland/crops  Land use change in past converted large amount of temperate forest to cropland  Highly managed (Bonan 2008, Jackson et al. 2008, Peters et al. 2013)

5. Physicochemical Changes Indirect Effects & Feedbacks Megadisturbance

6. (Pautasso et al. 2012)

7. Temperature Precipitation CO 2 2013 IPCC Report

8.  Increased evaporation  Biological effects  Changes in phenology  Range shifts  Increased rain vs. snow and snow melt  Heat stress  Changes in growth rate ▪ Increases and decreases (van Mantgem 2009, Keenan et al. 2014)

9.  Very variable according to region  Increases in eastern U.S., northern Europe, southeast Asia  Decreases in western U.S., southern Europe, northeast Asia, and eastern Australia  Some areas with increased drought or flooding  Flooding can increase or reduce nutrient levels  Drought can cause tree death and increase susceptibility to pests, pathogens, and fire (2013 IPCC Report, Bentz et al. 2010, Millar and Stephenson 2015)

10.  Atmospheric CO 2 is increasing  Positive for plant growth and water-use efficiency ▪ Response may be limited by water and nutrients (Silva and Anand 2013) 2013 IPCC Report

11. (Bonan 2008)

12.  Temp =  Evaporation =  Evaporative Cooling  Transpiration  Drought  Temp =  Snow =  Yearly Soil Moisture  CO 2 =  Transpiration =  Drought Tolerance

13.  Temp =  Photosynthesis =  Carbon Sink  CO 2 =  Photosynthesis =  Carbon Sink  Water =  Photosynthesis =  Carbon Sink

14. (Keenan et al. 2014)

15. (Millar and Stephenson 2015)

16.  Baseline mortality of trees is increasing  Dead trees release large amounts of carbon  Old-growth forests store more carbon (van Mantgem et al. 2009)

17.  Overall, increase in large disturbances across the globe related to global change forcings  More intense droughts, fires, biotic outbreaks, and heat waves (Dale et al. 2001, Millar and Stephenson 2015)

18.  Increasing due to temperature increase  20.4 million hectares of forest in the US impacted by biotic forcing (10 Massachusetts) annually  The most expensive disturbances for humans  Magnitude of disturbance can equal or surpass that of direct climate forcings ( Bentz et al. 2010)

19. (Flower and Gonzalez-Meler 2015)

20. Bentz, B. J. et al. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60, 602–613 (2010). Bonan, G. B. Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 320, 1444–1449 (2008). Dale, V. H. et al. Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51, 723–734 (2001). Flower, C. E. & Gonzalez-Meler, M. A. Responses of temperate forest productivity to insect and pathogen disturbances. Annu. Rev. Plant Biol. 1–23 (2015). Jackson, R. B. et al. Protecting climate with forests. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, (2008). IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).12. Keenan, T., Gray, J. & Friedl, M. Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 598–604 (2014). Millar, C. I. & Stephenson, N. L. Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science 349, 823–826 (2015). Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science 333, 988–993 (2011). Pautasso, M., Döring, T. F., Garbelotto, M., Pellis, L. & Jeger, M. J. Impacts of climate change on plant diseases-opinions and trends. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 133, 295–313 (2012). Peters, E. B., Wythers, K. R., Zhang, S., Bradford, J. B. & Reich, P. B. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes. Can. J. For. Res. 950, 939–950 (2013). Silva, L. C. R. & Anand, M. Probing for the influence of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on forest ecosystems across biomes. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22, 83–92 (2013). van Mantgem, P. J., Stephenson, N. L., Byrne, J. C., et al. Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323, 521–524 (2009).