1. Shorter and Long Run Impacts on the Deforestation Frontier An econometric estimation of the Anthropogenic deforestation drivers in the Tri-Border Region of Brazil, Bolivia and Peru Cesar Delgado, Dalia Amor, Joseph Sexton, Fernando Colchero, Alexander Pfaff. International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future Manaus – Brazil. Nov 17-20 2008

2. Tri-Border Region & the Inter-Oceanic Highway International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future Study Area Interoceanic highway: - Paved - Unpaved PERU BRAZIL BOLIVIA

3. The Study Area 13 million ha. of Low Tropical Wet Forest Triple border – Peru 33% – Brazil 43% – Bolivia 24% Rio Branco Brasileia Cobija Cobija Inambari Assis Puerto Maldonado Senador Guiomard Xapuri Iberia Alerta Mavila Porvenir Planchon International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

4. Methods I: General Approach Remote Sensing.-Remote Sensing.- quantify current geospatial deforestation trends and patterns, regionally and within each country. Econometric EstimationEconometric Estimation.- GLM Binomial Logistic Model to quantify the difference between country deforestation rates and between the impacts of specific anthropogenic drivers, with a focus upon shifts on road impacts along space/time. Projections.-Projections.- Probability of deforestation spatial location by regression’s maximum likelihood estimators. International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

5. Methods II: Deforestation Remote Sensing 2 Landsat Images Mosaics from 1989 and 2000. Radiometric correction at surface reflectance and sub- pixel RMS error geometric correction Final Binary grid (Forest=0, human made clearcut=1) Supervised classification by spectral signature extraction (150 signatures per image). International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

6. Methods III: Econometric Estimation Dependant Variable: hectare resolution binary deforestation grid (y=0 forest, y=1 no forest) Independent Variables: International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

7. Results I: Deforestation Spatial Analysis Total Deforested Area by Years 1989 20002007 Increase in Annual Deforestation Rates International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

8. Results II: Land use changes in the Temporal Scale International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future 198920002007 Spatial (Countries) and temporal context are main players in the way how deforestation unfoldsSpatial (Countries) and temporal context are main players in the way how deforestation unfolds

9. Results III: Econometric Estimation International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

10. Results III: Spatial Deforestation Projections All 3 countries, by 2025, ignoring national borders Again projection to 2025, controlling for countries’ varied historic dynamics In a preliminary fashion, include also the influence of Protected Areas International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

11. Conclusions I Spatial context matters.-Spatial context matters.- clearing and its variables vary by country Temporal context matters.-Temporal context matters.- as developments unfolds in locations, see shifts in the impacts on deforestation of potential factors. – example of continued improvements in Inter-Oceanic not leading to ongoing changes in local clearing patterns. – in contrast, expansion of cities usurps more influence as does the ongoing development of new secondary roads. International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

12. Conclusions II Bolivia reaps the benefits of the Inter-Oceanic by border cities such as Cobija, without developing its own road infrastructure to the rest of Bolivia. Shows the fastest city expansion in the region. Combining the above, despite shifts over time within Bolivia still some more recent deforestation seems shaped by the Inter-Oceanic suggesting some spillover from Brazil. Predicting Peruvian Amazon rates remains a challenge International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future

13. Special thanks to: My wife and kidMy wife and kid Dalia Amor CondeDalia Amor Conde Alexander PfaffAlexander Pfaff The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy SolutionsThe Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions International Scientific Conference. Amazon in Perspective - Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future