1. "Spoonfeeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon." ~EM Forster PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 6

2. Class Agenda Announcements Dale Carnegie Competition Debriefing Assignment for Next Class

4. Competition Points As of 11/06/2015 Winners Losers Group #Points 1424 223 1219 118 1518 416 9 1716 514 8 1114 313 1813 1012 611 1311 710 169

5. Dale Carnegie Groups 5 and 6 presenting today Groups 7 and 8 are presenting Monday

6. Dale Carnegie Principles Don't criticize, condemn or complain. Give honest and sincere appreciation. Arouse the other person an eager want. Become genuinely interested in other people. Remember that a man's name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language. Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves. Talk in the terms of the other man’s interest. Make the other person feel important and do it sincerely. Avoid arguments. Never tell someone they are wrong If you're wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically. Begin in a friendly way. Start with questions the other person will answer yes to. Let the other person do the talking. Let the other person feel the idea is his/hers. Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view. Sympathize with the other person. Appeal to noble motives. Dramatize your ideas. Throw down a challenge. Begin with praise and honest appreciation. Call attention to other people's mistakes indirectly. Talk about your own mistakes first. Ask questions instead of giving direct orders. Let the other person save face. Praise every improvement. Give them a fine reputation to live up to Encourage them by making their faults seem easy to correct. Make the other person happy about doing what you suggest.

7. Competition Results Group 2 won! They receive 5 points All other ground received 3 points

8. Competition Debriefing Exercises Now get ready for more points! Receive 1-3 points awarded by Coplin

9. Things to remember… Take notes today to help with your module Groups who are called on should find as many errors as possible

10. Module 4 Debriefing Instructions - We will call two representatives from your group - It is possible for your group to be called on more than once - Confer with your groups quietly so that you don’t give away the answers to other groups.

11. Module 4 Competition Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University, in Syracuse, New York is too high. Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

12. Data Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment School YearFirst Year Drop Out Rate 2012-20137.6% 2013-20148.3% 2014-20159.9% 2015-2016e9.1%

13. State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid Exercise 7.1 and 7.2

14. State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 Bullet 1: Not stated as a societal problem. No geographic location. No too much/too little Bullet 2: Correct Bullet 3: Correct

15. Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain the most significant benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain the most significant cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot.

16. Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot. Problem 1: Most obvious benefit not listed – The dropout rate will decrease. Problem 2: Incorrect justification. Should justify WHY you chose the rating (1, 2, 3) rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Problem 3: Same as Problem 2. Doesn’t justify rating. Also, this justification is incorrect because spending more money would cost more. Correct: This should have a rating of 2 because the high cost is a burden on the university.

17. Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time PeriodNumber of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 20127.6%Professor Coplin 20138.3%Professor Coplin 20149.9%Professor Coplin 20159.1%Professor Coplin

18. Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time PeriodNumber of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 2012 2012-2013 7.6%Professor Coplin 2013 2013-2014 8.3%Professor Coplin 2014 2014-2015 9.9%Professor Coplin 2015 2015-2016e 9.1%Professor Coplin Problem 1: Should be in academic years and indicate which years are estimate. Problem 2: Incomplete title. Should say: Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University (2012-2016e) Problem 4: Incorrect source. Correct: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment Problem 3: No specific variable within the brackets. Should be: Percentage of Drop Outs

19. Exercise 8.2A A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1% School YearDrop Out Rate 2012-20137.6% 2013-20148.3% 2014-20159.9% 2015-2016e9.1%

20. Exercise 8.2A A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1% School YearDrop Out Rate 2012-20137.6% 2013-20148.3% 2014-20159.9% 2015-2016e9.1% Problem 1: APPLIES TO BOTH BULLETS! Incorrect calculation. Uses data points for the last two years instead of the first two years. Correct Calculation: [(8.3 – 7.6) / 7.6] X 100 = 9.2%

21. Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2015-2016 Second year: 2017-2018 Third year: 2019-2020 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

22. Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2015-2016 Second year: 2017-2018 Third year: 2019-2020 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years. Bullet 2: Poor justification. Should talk about the expected rapidness/slowness of the policy’s effect and possibly how the years will show how steadily/dramatically changes will occur. Bullet 1: Incorrect spacing of years. Need consistent intervals.

23. Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3.

24. Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3. No title. Correct using these years: Historical and Forecast Graph for First Year Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: 2012-2018f No source. Correct: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment Y-axis should have title: Percentage of First Year Drop Outs X-axis title should be “Academic Years” Change Title and Axis Values (i.e. 2012 should be 2012-2013) Data points should have numerical values above them. Only forecasted for 2 years! *Need 3 Seven years because policy was implemented in 2015

25. Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows an increase in the dropout rate. The trend is approaching the outer limit which is why the graph starts to level off for the last forecast.

26. Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows an increase in the dropout rate. The trend is approaching the outer limit which is why the graph starts to level off for the last forecast. Correct: Forecast generally follow the same pattern as the historical data UNLESS a special event or condition occurs that will affect the forecast OR the trend approaches an outer limit.

27. Helpful Hints Be sure to justify the rating (1, 2, 3) you give the benefit or cost rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented. Label forecasted and estimated data points! Use the Maxwell Manual and follow directions on how to do a graph, but could vary on the computer software you are using. Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be ameliorated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

28. For Next Class Complete 8.2 to 8.4 if you know what is good for you Module 4 due on Wednesday, 11/11 Community Service forms due 12/4 http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/paf101