1. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 1 U. Washington Tsunami Certificate Program Course 2: Tsunami Warning Systems Session 10 Tsunami Warning Messages July 29, 2007 8:30-9:20am

2. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 2 Outline Response criteria –Basis –Example –Flow charts Message Types Message Content Graphical Products WMO standards

3. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 3 Response Criteria Initial TWC response must be as quick as possible –Base initial response on seismic processing and well-planned procedures –Especially critical for regional events Set procedures for all possible earthquake scenarios Supplemental message procedures can not be so scripted –Too many possible situations –More time to contemplate decisions –Analyst judgment comes into play more as the event proceeds Response criteria normally set conservatively –Infrequent events –Much uncertainty – especially just after origin time

4. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 4 Response Criteria How to best convey the response criteria to analysts? –Criteria clearly displayed in center –Run simulations regularly –Set up a practice machine –Set up an automatic prompt (next slide)

5. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 5

6. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 6 Response Criteria Basis for criteria –Historical data –Tsunami Models Especially important where no historical data exists For example, Gulf of Mexico –Tectonic setting –Comparative analysis If there is no historic data, can the area be compared to other regions with history? –Geologic setting Landslide potential?

7. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 7 Tsunamis impacting WCATWC AOR Moment Magnitude # QuakesYear of tsunamiMaximum Distance where 0.5m amplitude tsunami recorded (km) Source Zone 7.0-7.538187380S. Oregon 13% triggered tsunamis 192720S. California 1946220British Columbia 198920C. California 1992150N. California 7.6-7.88181220S. California 25 % triggered tsunamis 1969850Kamchatka

8. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 8 Tsunamis impacting WCATWC AOR > 7.8131899 (1)130Gulf of Alaska 77% triggered tsunamis 1899 (2)360Gulf of Alaska 1946Tele-tsunamiE. Aleutian Is. 1957Tele-tsunamiC. Aleutian Is. 1958230Gulf of Alaska 1964Tele-tsunamiGulf of Alaska 1965550W. Aleutian Is. 1986120C. Aleutian Is 1987200Gulf of Alaska 199680C. Aleutians

9. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 9

10. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 10

11. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 11 Message Types Most countries have their own definitions for warning, watch, etc. There is no international standard for definitions U.S. just re-defined its definitions Messages must be understandable to primary recipients

12. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 12 Message Types - Warning Tsunami Warning: –A Tsunami Warning is issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers when a potential tsunami with significant widespread inundation is imminent or expected. Warnings alert citizens that widespread, dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents is possible and may continue for several hours after arrival of the initial wave. Warnings also alert emergency management officials to take action for the entire tsunami hazard zone. Appropriate actions to be taken by local officials may include the evacuation of low-lying coastal areas, and the repositioning of ships to deep waters when there is time to safely do so. Warnings may be updated, adjusted geographically, downgraded, or canceled. To provide the earliest possible alert, initial warnings are normally based only on seismic information. Warning means big wave could come – head to high ground

13. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 13 Message Types - Advisory Tsunami Advisory: –A Tsunami Advisory is issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers due to the threat of a potential tsunami which may produce strong currents or waves dangerous to those in or near the water. Coastal regions historically prone to damage due to strong currents induced by tsunamis are at the greatest risk. The threat may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival, but significant widespread inundation is not expected for areas under an Advisory. Appropriate actions to be taken by local officials may include closing beaches and evacuating harbors and marinas, and the repositioning of ships to deep waters when there is time to safely do so. Advisories are normally updated to continue the Advisory, expand/contract affected areas, upgrade to a Warning, or cancel the Advisory. Advisory means strong surges possible, but no inundation expected – Get off the beach

14. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 14 Message Types - Watch Tsunami Watch: –A Tsunami Watch is issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers to alert emergency management officials and coastal citizens of an event which may later impact the Watch area. The Watch area may be upgraded to a Warning or Advisory (or canceled) based on updated information and analysis. Therefore, emergency management officials and coastal citizens should prepare to take action. Watches are normally issued based on seismic information without confirmation that a destructive tsunami is underway. Watch means that a wave may have been generated that could impact your area – stay tuned

15. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 15 Message Types - Information Information Statement: –An Information Statement is issued to inform emergency management officials and coastal citizens that an earthquake has occurred. In most cases, Information Statements indicate there is no threat of a destructive tsunami affecting the issuing Tsunami Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility and they are issued to prevent unnecessary evacuations as the earthquake may have been felt in coastal areas. An Information Statement may, in appropriate situations, caution about the possibility of destructive local tsunamis. Information Statements may be re-issued with additional information, though normally these messages are not updated. However, a Watch, Advisory or Warning may be issued for the area, if necessary, after analysis and/or updated information becomes available. Information generally means that no danger is expected – enjoy the beach

16. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 16 Message Content Exercise – What should be in the message???

17. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 17 Message Creation Not enough time to create messages on the fly –Must be automatically created based on some control information Source location Magnitude Tsunami arrival times at points of interest Observed wave heights Evaluation options specified by analyst Pre-defined criteria Analyst must have ability to modify message Language –Difficult to issue in other languages Can be done, but hard to modify

18. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 18 Message Content Basic content of tsunami messages: –Header (WMO standard) –Headline (who is in a warning) –Evaluation (impact threat) –Observed wave heights –Earthquake information –Tsunami arrival times –Background information (watch/warning definitions) –Follow-up message information Public messages –Easier to read

19. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 19 Message Content Supplemental messages: Flow charts can provide guidance for supplemental bulletins –Upgrades to warning –Downgrade to Advisory –Cancellation All clear Still minor danger –Final Supplement See web site for example messages

20. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 20 Messages – Graphical Products Break out here and look at WCATWC and PTWC web sites Future improvements: –Max wave height (energy directionality) maps –Telescoping warning/advisory/watch maps –Inundation maps for certain sites

21. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 21 WMO product headers (PTWC) WEPA40 PHEBTSUPAC Tsunami Warnings, Watches, and Advisories PTWC Pacific Area-of-Responsibility WEPA42 PHEB TIBPAC Tsunami Information Statements PTWC Pacific Area-of-Responsibility WEHW40 PHEBTSUHWX Tsunami Warnings, Watches, and Advisories Hawaii WEHW42 PHEBTIBHWX Tsunami Information Statements Hawaii SEHW70 PHEBEQIHWX Tsunami Information Statements PTWC Pacific Area-of-Responsibility WEIO21 PHEBTSUIOX Tsunami Watches Indian Ocean Region WEIO23 PHEB TIBIOX Tsunami Information Statements Indian Ocean Region

22. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 22 Message Example WEPA43 PAAQ 230944 TIBWCA TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 244 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006...THIS TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT IS FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA ONLY... NO - REPEAT NO - WATCH OR WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STATES AND PROVINCES LISTED ABOVE. EVALUATION BASED ON MAGNITUDE AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION THE EARTHQUAKE WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI DAMAGING TO CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA OR ALASKA. IN COASTAL AREAS OF INTENSE SHAKING LOCALLY GENERATED TSUNAMIS CAN BE TRIGGERED BY UNDERWATER LANDSLIDES. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS MAGNITUDE - 6.8 TIME - 0140 AKDT OCT 23 2006 0240 PDT OCT 23 2006 0940 UTC OCT 23 2006 LOCATION - 16.4 NORTH 102.5 WEST - OFF COAST OF GUERRERO MEXICO DEPTH - 21 MILES

23. Paul Whitmore, NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska TWC, July 29, 2007 UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 23 Tsunami Warning Messages - Summary 1.Initial response must be pre-planned for all possible scenarios. 2.Response criteria can become complex over large AORs. Information must be presented in a clear way to the analysts. 3.Message types and meanings vary between countries and there is no international standard. In the U.S.: Warning -> Evacuate to max expected limit Advisory -> Move away from the beach Watch -> Stay tuned for more information Information -> No danger 4.Messages must be composed automatically based on source parameters.