1. The blue economy: new threats and opportunities to sustainable use of marine resources
Gillian Cambers, SPC, GCCA: PSIS project

2. Outline
1. Regional vulnerability assessment 2. How will climate change affect fisheries and aquaculture resources? 3. How will these changes affect economic development and food security and how should we adapt?

3. 1. Approach used Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Adaptations, policies and investments needed to maintain productivity

4. Vulnerability assessment
88 authors
36 institutions
Summary for policy makers

5. 2. How will climate change affect fisheries and aquaculture resources
Tuna
Coral reef fish
Freshwater fish
Coastal aquaculture
Pond aquaculture

6. Projected effects on skipjack tuna
A2 emissions scenario
Catch in 2009
1.75 million tonnes
~ USD 2.2 billion
2000
Effects due to:
Increases in sea surface temperature in eastern Pacific
Shift of prime feeding areas to the east (convergence between the Warm Pool and Pacific Equatorial Divergence Province)
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)

7. Effects on skipjack tuna catches
West (average) A2
2035
2050
2100
~ +10% 0%
~ -20%
East (average) A2
A22035
2050
2100
+35-40%
+40-45%
+25-30%
Changes relative to average catch

8. Projected effects on coral reef fish
A2 emissions scenario
Today
2035 (-2 to -5%)
Effects due to:
Increased sea surface temperature and more frequent bleaching
Ocean acidification
Greater runoff of nutrients due to higher rainfall
Cyclones of greater intensity
(-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)

9. Effects on freshwater fish catch
A2 emissions scenario
2035
2050
2100
+2.5%
+2.5 to +7.5%
+2.5 to %
Effects due to:
Increased air temperature
Higher flow rates
Increased freshwater habitat

10. Coastal aquaculture commodities
A2 emissions scenario
Pearls
Shrimp
Seaweed
Marine ornamentals
2035
2050
2100
Effects due to:
Increased sea surface temperature
Ocean acidification
Greater runoff of nutrients
Sea-level rise
More-intense cyclones

11. Pond aquaculture commodities
Tilapia
A2 emissions scenario
2035
2050
2100
Effects due to:
Increased surface air temperature (faster growth rates in ponds)
Higher rainfall (more places to build ponds)

12. Summary of changes in production
A2 emissions scenario
Resource
West
East
2035
2050
2100
Tuna
Negligible
Coastal fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Aquaculture
*Fish in ponds
*Coastal commodities

13. 3. How will these changes affect economic development and food security and how should we adapt?

14. Key points
Small PICTs in east with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits!
Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly in large PICTs in west where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to size of economies)

15. How should PICTs adapt? To reduce the threats
To harness the opportunities

16. Adaptations (economic development)
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Skipjack tuna move km along the equatorial Pacific , depending on ENSO events
The vessel day effort management scheme allows the fleet to follow the fish and ensures that all PNA countries still receive some benefits
Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters can purchase and trade fishing days depending on the location of the tuna.
VDS has potential to be modified regularly to accommodate movement of tuna to the east
Ask

17. Adaptations (economic development)
Energy audits of industrial fishing vessels
Addresses likelihood of near-term rises in fuel costs
Will assist national fleets from PNG and Solomon Islands that may have to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries
Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets

18. How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?
Plans are to provide 35 kg of fish per person per year as populations grow
Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

19. Where will the fish come from?
By increasing access of coastal communities to tuna

20. Only tuna can fill the gap
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)

21. Adaptations (food security)
Restore and sustain fisheries and their habitats
Increase access to tuna for subsistence fishers with low-cost, inshore Fish
Aggregating Devices (FADs)
Store and distribute low value tuna and bycatch from industrial fleets to urban areas
Develop pond aquaculture

22. Summary Economic development
East gains, where PICTs have high dependence, west has loses but effects on GDP are small
Food security
Contribution of coastal fisheries will decrease, but gap can be filled mainly by tuna
Pond aquaculture favoured by climate change

23. Summary
Adaptations
Win-win adaptations available for economic development and food security
Adaptations need to be implemented urgently for coastal fisheries to reduce natural and man made impacts and build resilience to climate change

24. Acknowledgements Many
We are most grateful to AusAID for their investment in helping to build a solid foundation of knowledge about the vulnerability of the fisheries and aquaculture sector to climate change – a foundation that can be used to inform effective management.