1. Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST
생산운영관리
Ch. 5. Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services (전략적 생산용량 계획)
Hansoo Kim (金翰秀)
Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

2. 이번주 까지 했어야 하는 일들… 읽기: Chapter 17, and Chapter 5, 5s
Play with MS-Project®

3. Ch.17 중요 요점 What is Project? What is Project Management?
Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling
Matrix Organization,
WBS (Work-Breakdown-Structure)
Network Diagram
AON, AOA
Gantt Chart
PERT/CPM
Finding Critical Path
Forward Calculation/Backward Calculation
Project Management Problem
Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule?
Is the project over or under cost budget?
Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?
Crashing

4. X X X OM Overview Class Overview (Ch. 0) Operations, Productivity,
and Strategy
(Ch. 1, 2) X
Project Management
(Ch. 17)
Strategic
Capacity
Planning
(Ch. 5, 5S)
Process
Selection/ Facility Layout; LP
(Ch. 6, 6S) X
Mgmt of Quality/ Six Sigma Quality
(Ch. 9, 10)
Queueing/
Simulation
(Ch. 18)
Supply Chain Management
(Ch 11)
Location Planning
and Analysis
(Ch. 8)
JIT &
Lean Mfg System
(Ch. 15)
Demand Mgmt Forecasting
(Ch 3)
Aggregated Planning
(Ch. 13)
Inventory Management
(Ch. 12)
MRP & ERP
(Ch 14)
Term Project

5. OM Expert가 되기 위해서…

6. 학습목표 생산용량계획의 중요성을 설명할 수 있다 생산용량을 정의하고 측정하는 방법을 토의 한다
유효생산용량의 결정요소들을 기술한다
생산용량 대안 개발과 관련된 주요 고려사항들을 토의한다
생산용량 대안을 평가하는 데 유용한 도구들을 간단히 기술한다

7. Terms (용어) 영어 중국어 瓶颈作业 预期币值标准 盈亏平衡点 完全信息预期价值 运营能力 运营能力缓冲 现金流 规模不经济
Bottleneck operation
瓶颈作业
Expected monetary value(EMV)criterion
预期币值标准
Break-even point
盈亏平衡点
Expected value of perfect information(EVPI)
完全信息预期价值
Capacity
运营能力
Laplace
Capacity cushion
运营能力缓冲
Maximax
Cash flow
现金流
Maximin
Diseconomies of scale
规模不经济
Minimax regret
Economies of scale
规模经济
Payoff table
结算表
Outsource 外包
Regret (opportunity loss)
Present value 现值
Risk 风险
Bounded rationality
有限理性
Sensitivity analysis
灵敏度分析
Certainty
Suboptimization
局部最优化
Decision tree
决策图标
Uncertainty 7

8. Capacity(运营能力, 생산용량) Planning
Capacity (생산용량): 한 생산 단위가 처리할 수 있는 최대 부하 the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle.
Eg. # of bicycle assembled in an hr
생산용량에 포함되는 요소들
Equipment (설비)
Space (공간)
Employee skills (작업능력)
생산용량계획 수립시 기본질문들… The basic questions in capacity handling are:
What kind of capacity is needed? (어떤 종류의 생산용량이 필요한가?)
How much is needed? (얼마나 필요한가?)
When is it needed? (언제 필요한가?)
Over-capacity?
Under-capacity?

9. 생산용량 결정의 전략적 속성 미래에 발생할 수요를 충족하는 능력에 영향을 준다 생산용량 결정은 생산비용에 영향을 준다.
생산용량은 보통 초기 투자의 주요 구성요소이다.
생산용량 결정은 장기적 관점의 의사결정이다.
생산용량 결정은 경쟁력에 영향을 미친다.
생산용량 결정에 따라 관리의 용이성이 달라질수 있다.
글로벌화로 인해 생산용량 결정이 더 중요해지고 복잡해 졌다.
생산용량결정은 충분한 시간을 두고 결정해야할 중요한 의사결정이다.
Capacity Decisions are Strategic!!!

10. 생산용량의 정의 Design capacity (설계용량) Effective capacity (유효생산용량)
설계시 결정된 최대 산출물이나 서비스 용량
Maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed for
Effective capacity (유효생산용량)
설계용량에서 인적요인 또는 기타 이유로 인한 공제량을 뺀 용량
Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrap
Actual output (실제산출률)
실제 산출률 – 유효생산용량을 초과할수 없음
Rate of output actually achieved--cannot exceed effective capacity.

11. Efficiency(효율) and Utilization(이용률)
Actual output
Efficiency =
Effective capacity
Utilization =
Design capacity
Both measures expressed as percentages
Example 1
Design capacity = 50 trucks/day
Effective capacity = 40 trucks/day
Actual output = 36 units/day
Key to improving capacity ~ |Efficiency – Utilization|

12. 유효생산용량에 영향을 미치는 요인 Determinants of Effective Capacity
Facilities (시설)
Design (설계)
Location (위치)
Layout (배치)
Environment (환경)
Product/service (제품/서비스)
Product or service mix (제품/서비스 믹스)
Process (프로세스)
Quantity capabilities(양적 능력)
Quality capabilities(품질 능력)
Human factors (인적 요인)
Job content(직무 내용)
Job design(직무 설계)
Training and experience(훈련과경험)
Motivation(동기유발)
Compensation(보상)
Learning rates(학습 속도)
Absenteeism and labor turnover(결근 및 퇴직률)
Policy(정책)
Operational(운영)
Scheduling(스케줄링)
Materials management(자재 관리)
Quality assurance(품질 보증)
Maintenance policies(보전 정책)
Equipment breakdowns(장비 고장)
Supply chain(공급사슬)
External factors (외적요인)
Product standards(제품 표준)
Safety regulations(안전 규제)
Unions(노조)
Pollution control standards(공해 관리 기준)

13. 생산용량계획의 주요 의사결정 Key Decisions of Capacity Planning
필요생산용량 Amount of capacity needed
여유생산용량 (Capacity cushion) = (100% - Utilization)
Timing of changes
Need to maintain balance
Extent of flexibility of facilities
Capacity cushion – extra demand intended to offset uncertainty
수요의 불확실성을상쇄시키기 위한 추가적인 생산 용량

14. 생산용량계획 절차: Steps for Capacity Planning
미래 필요 생산용량 추정 (Estimate future capacity requirements)
현재 생산용량 평가 (Evaluate existing capacity)
대안 파악 (Identify alternatives)
재무 분석 수행 (Conduct financial analysis)
정성적 요인 평가 (Assess key qualitative issues)
대안 선택 (Select one alternative)
실행 (Implement alternative chosen)
결과 모니터링 (Monitor results)

15. 생산용량소요 예측 Forecasting Capacity Requirements
Long-term vs. short-term capacity needs
Long-term relates to overall level of capacity such as facility size, trends, and cycles
Short-term relates to variations from seasonal, random, and irregular fluctuations in demand
Figure5-1
Common demand patterns

16. 생산용량 계산 (Calculating Processing Requirements)
년간 용량이 2000시간/기계 라면, 우리는 5800시간을 확보하기 위해 2.9대의 설비가 필요하다 5,800 (hours)/2,000 (hours/mc) = 2.90 machines

17. 서비스용량계획: Planning Service Capacity
Need to be near customers (용량과 고객이 근접함)
Capacity and location are closely tied
Inability to store services (서비스 용량은 저장이 안됨)
Capacity must be matched with timing of
demand
Degree of volatility(휘발성) of demand
Peak demand periods

18. 생산용량, 자체생산이냐 구매냐? In-House or Outsourcing*
가용생산 용량 Available capacity
전문성; Expertise
품질; Quality considerations
수요의 특성; Nature of demand
원가; Cost
위험; Risk
Make or Buy?
Outsource(외주): 외부공급자로 부터 제품과 서비스를 공급받는 것 obtain a good or service from an external provider

19. 생산용량 대안 개발 (Developing Capacity Alternatives)
시스템을 유연하게 설계하라 Design flexibility into systems
수명주기 단계를 감안하라 Take stage of life-cycle into account
시스템 사고로 생산용량 변경에 접근하라 Take a “big picture” approach to capacity changes (not to be sub-optimal)
생산용량을 덩어리 (Chunk)로 다룰 준비를 하라 Prepare to deal with capacity “chunks”
생산용량소요를 평준화 하도록 시도하라 Attempt to smooth out capacity requirements
최적 운영수준을 파악하라. Identify the optimal operating level

20. 병목공정 Bottleneck Operation
sub optimization
Bottleneck operation: An operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations
일련의 공정들 중에서 생산용량이 가장 작은 공정
Figure 5.2
Operation 1 20/hr.
Operation 2 10/hr.
Operation 3 15/hr.
10/hr.
Bottleneck
Maximum output rate limited by bottleneck

21. 규모의 경제 Economies of Scale
규모의 경제: 산출률이 최적수준 이하면, 산출률을 늘리면 단위 당 평균 원가는 내려간다.
Diseconomies of scale
규모의 비경제: 산출률이 최적수준이상이면 산출률을 늘리면 단위 당 평균 원가는 올라간다

22. Economies of Scale Minimum cost & optimal operating rate are
functions of size of production unit.
Figure 5.5

23. 대안 평가 Evaluating Alternatives
비용-조업도 분석 (Cost-volume analysis)
손익분기점 Break-even point
재무분석 (Financial analysis)
현금 흐름 (Cash flow)
현재 가치 (Present value)
의사결정 이론 (Decision theory)
대기행렬 분석 (Waiting-line analysis)

24. 비용-조업도 관계 Cost-Volume Relationships
FC = Fixed cost
VC = Total variable cost
v = Variable cost per unit
TC = Total cost
TR = Total revenue
R = Revenue per unit
Q = Quantity or volume of output
QBEP = Break-even quantity
P = Profit
TC=FC+VC
VC=Q*v

25. 손익분기점 분석 Break-Even Analysis

26. Example 3
Adding a new line of pies, which will require leasing new equipment for a monthly payment of $6,000. Variable costs would be $2.00 per pie, and pies would retail for $7.00 each.
How many pies must be sold in order to break even?
What would the profit (loss) be if 1,000 pies are made and sold in a month?
How many pies must be sold to realize a profit of $4,000?
If 2,000 can be sold, and a profit target is $5,000, what price should be charged per pie?
SOLUTION

27. 복수손익분기점 문제: Break-Even Problem with Step Fixed Costs
                                                             
EXAMPLE 4

28. 의사결정 이론 Decision Theory
Ch. 5S

29. Product and service design
Decision Theory
Decision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including:
Capacity
planning
Product and service design
Location
planning
Equipment
selection

30. Decision Process Identify the problem
Specify objectives and criteria for a solution
Develop suitable alternatives
Analyze and compare alternatives
Select the best alternative
Implement the solution
Monitor to see that the desired result is achieved

31. Decision Environments
Certainty - Environment in which relevant parameters have known values
Risk - Environment in which certain future events have probable outcomes
Uncertainty - Environment in which it is impossible to assess the likelihood of various future events
1. Profit per unit is $5. You have an order for 200 units. How much profit will you make? (This is an example of certainty since unit profits and total demand are known.)
2. Profit is $5 per unit. Based on previous experience, there is a 50 percent chance of an order for 100 units and a 50 percent chance of an order for 200 units. What is expected profit? (This is an example of risk since demand outcomes are probabilistic.)
3. Profit is $5 per unit. The probabilities of potential demands are unknown. (This is an example of uncertainty.)

32. Decision Making under Certainty (확정성하의 의사결정)
Payoff table
Solution:
Choose the alternative with the highest payoff
If demand is low, take “small facility” alternative
If demand is moderate, take “Medium facility” alternative
If demand is high, take “Large facility” alternative

33. Decision Making under Uncertainty (불확정성하의 의사결정)
Maximin - Choose the alternative with the best of the worst possible payoffs
Maximax - Choose the alternative with the best possible payoff
Laplace - Choose the alternative with the best average payoff of any of the alternatives
Minimax Regret - Choose the alternative that has the least of the worst regrets

34. Decision Making under Uncertainty (불확정성하의 의사결정)
Maximin
(b) Maximax
(c) Laplace
For the Laplace criterion, first find the row totals, and then divide each of those amounts by the number of states of nature (three in this case).
(d) Minimax Regret (Opportunity Losses)

35. Decision Making Under Risk (위험(불확실성)하의 의사결정)
Risk: The probability of occurrence for each state of nature is known
Risk lies between the extremes of uncertainty and certainty
Expected monetary value (EMV) criterion:
The best expected value among alternatives
Determine the expected payoff of each alternative, and choose the alternative with the best expected payoff
When demand probabilities are distributed as follows
low = .30, moderate = .50, and high = .20.

36. 의사결정 나무 (Decision Tree)
Decision tree: a Schematic representation of the available alternatives and their possible consequences.

37. Example
A manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct. The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small. Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in order to maximize expected monetary value.

38. (평균완전정보비용) Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
Expected value of perfect information: the difference between the expected payoff under certainty and the expected payoff under risk
Expected value of perfect information
Expected payoff under certainty
Expected payoff under risk - =
In the previous example,

39. 민감도 분석 Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis: Determining the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff
Useful for decision makers to have some indication of how sensitive the choice of an alternative is to changes in one or more of these values
Example 5s-8

40. 요약
Capacity Planning
Decision Theory

41. HW# Review all Solved Problems on Ch. 5, 5s
Do not need to hand-in (좋지?!)

42. To be OM Expert !!!
Capacity Planning
& Decision Theory