1. Accelerating the rise of solar energy
Geoffrey S. Kinsey, PhD
Zuva Energy Consulting
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
June 20, 2014

2. My background

3. Demand
=11.2 TWh
1 quad=293 billion kWh

4. Kilowatt-hours to gallons-of-gas equivalent
33 kilowatt-hours [kWh]
1 gallon
A Tesla Model S can go 90 miles on 33 kW-h

5. Some gasoline equivalents
33 kW-hr of energy is in one gallon of gasoline:
Driving 300 miles, 25 mpg:
Driving 300 miles, electric car:
Flying from New York to Los Angeles:
Leaving a 40-W cable box on 24/7, per year:
Energy to get water to LA, per capita, per year:
Clothes dryer, per year
42” Plasma TV, 2 hours per day, per year:
42” LED TV, 2 hours per day, per year: 1 12 3 50 10 14 30 7 2

6. Energy efficiency

7. Which is most expensive?
…It depends…

8. The externalities…

9. The externalities…

10. Our comfy climate

12. The externalities…

15. Does CO2 absorb sunlight?

17. Effects on the cryosphere

19. Probability=100%
So this is happening. We’re now left with slowing it...

20. Projections

21. What does +6° C look like? ?

22. What does -6° C look like?

23. Doubt exists…

24. Credible doubt?

25. Doubt exists…

26. Doubt exists…

27. Doubt vs. credible doubt

28. The “period of consequences”

29. Leave the fossil fuels in the ground
Solutions
Winston Churchill, November 12, 1936:
Efficiency
Conservation
Solar
Wind
Storage
(Nuclear)
Leave the fossil fuels in the ground

30. Energy Resources
Non-renewable energy resources are stores of energy which form over millions of years…
Renewable energy resources are stores of energy which can be recycled or replaced by natural processes in less than 100 years.

31. FOSSIL FUELS 85% of the world’s commercial energy
COAL
NATURAL GAS
OIL

32. Electricity capacity in the U.S.

33. How many “solar energies” are there?
“Solar energy” (sunlight)
Wind
Hydroelectric
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Natural gas

34. ? Solar Energies Not solar: “Solar energy” (sunlight) Nuclear Wind
Hydroelectric
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Geothermal ?

35. Passive Solar Construction
Solar Thermal Energy
Passive Solar Construction

36. Solar hot water (not electric!)

37. Solar Electricity

38. Solar energy in space: satellites

39. Solar cells on Earth: where there are no outlets

40. Solar energy in space
Opportunity, April 2014
Someday… For ?

41. Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP)
The solar landscape
Silicon PV
Thin-Film PV
diffuse collection
SOLAR
concentration
Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP)
Concentration PV
(CPV)

42. Solar thermal: utility-scale energy

43. Solar cells on Earth: solar cars?

44. Solar cells on Earth: solar planes?

45. Solar cells on Earth: residential

46. Solar cells on Earth: utility scale

47. Solar cells on Earth: concentration PV

48. Concentration Photovoltaics (CPV)

49. The PV tipping point?
Source: EPIA

50. World PV Capacity: 2013
140 GW=

51. …mostly in Europe
Source: EPIA

52. U.S. vs. Germany…

53. Who's wearing the training wheels?

54. Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP)
The solar landscape
Silicon PV
Thin-Film PV
diffuse collection
SOLAR
concentration
Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP)
Concentration PV
(CPV)

55. Photovoltaic (PV) module: components

56. Photovoltaics (PV)
direct conversion of sunlight into electricity is efficient
semiconductor materials are expensive

57. Laboratory efficiencies
Cell at 25°C, standard spectrum

58. Module operating efficiency: 1/3 of the sun
coefficients per ASTM E :
34.5%
34.2%
33.3%!
33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL
G. S. Kinsey, W. Bagienski, A. Nayak, R. Gordon, V. Garboushian, “Advancing Efficiency and Scale in CPV Arrays”, IEEE J. Photovolt., vol. 3, no. 2, pp , doi: /JPHOTOV , 2013.

60. Soitec Solar's 44-MW Touwsrivier power plant

62. =11.2 TWh
1 quad=293 billion kWh

63. How much land area do we need?

64. How much land area do we need?

66. How much land area do we need?

67. How much land area do we need?

70. Sooooo… How do we pay for it?

71. Electricity consumption: example

72. PV for residential use

73. Levelized cost comparison
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013"

74. PV cost: a rapidly moving target
5.7 kW of modules: $24,000 (2007)
$5,000 (2012)

75. The German Feed-in Tariff (FiT)
Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2013

76. Soft costs dominate
Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2013

77. Electricity capacity in the U.S.

78. Soft costs Customer acquisition Installation
Permitting, inspection, interconnection

79. It hasn't been this way for long…
Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2013

80. Annual energy

81. Germany peaked at ~40% solar power!
A good day for solar
Germany peaked at ~40% solar power!

82. Solar takes hold in Germany

83. Germany's paperwork
Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at:

84. Paperwork in the U.S.
Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at:

85. Paperwork in the U.S. 18,000 jurisdictions Average delay: 70 days
Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at:

86. What's different? Feed-in tariff
this shifts the incentive from $/W to ¢/kW-h
Reduces perceived risk
Incentivizes long-term energy generation, long-lasting (durable) arrays
Minimal permitting
Renewables given priority
Scale

87. Residential vs. utility scale in the USA
Germany
California Valley Solar Ranch
(250 MW on trackers)

88. Heilbronn, Germany, April 30, 2011
Who needs a tracker?
Heilbronn, Germany, April 30, 2011

89. Who needs a tracker? increases $/W:
(“$” go up, but the “W” stays the same!)
greater installation complexity
moving parts, complex installation, O&M, etc.

90. The need for tracking Want TW-h, not just GW:
Utility demand: flat output & high capacity factor  requires tracking hardware

91. CPV example: Amonix

92. The duck curve

93. 2013 (actual)
2020 (CAISO estimate)

94. horizontal N-S tracker
fixed, latitude tilt
solar, CAISO
wind, CAISO
net load, CAISO

95. Supply and demand: irradiance vs. electrical load

96. Leave the fossil fuels in the ground
Solutions
Efficiency
Conservation
Solar
Wind
Storage
(Nuclear)
Leave the fossil fuels in the ground

97. Cost
Energy doesn’t like to be stored long-term potential for cost reduction is limited.
Short-term cost reduction of 30-50%!

98. “Vehicle-to-grid”

99. Vehicle to grid

100. How hard is charging?

101. “Vehicle-to-grid”

103. Storage: vehicle-to-grid

104. http://www. clean-coalition

105. Fossil fuel plants have problems, too

106. http://www. clean-coalition

107. Solutions: energy trading

108. Solutions: demand response

109. Solutions: energy storage

110. Solutions: curtailment

111. Solutions: combined

112. Conclusion

115. Backup slides

116. Why can't we get nearer to 100%?

117. Why can't we get nearer to 100%?
Water pressure from rain high above the dam is used before it reaches the dam
Rain that lands below the dam is lost

118. Solar spectrum

119. Terrestrial Spectrum: Available Current

120. Band edge limitation: silicon (single-junction) cell
Eg=1.1 eV (~1130 nm)
Photons with energy > Eg thermalize down and lose energy
Photons with energy < Eg pass through the cell unabsorbed

121. Semiconductor band edge limitation
Energy [eV]
Si:
1.1 eV0.7 V
Eg=1.1 eV (~1130 nm)
Silicon (Single Junction)
2 photons converted to current at 0.7 V

122. Semiconductor band edge limitation
Energy [eV]
Ge:
0.7 eV0.3 V
GaAs:
1.4 eV1.1 V
Si:
1.1 eV0.7 V
GaInP:
1.9 eV1.6 V
Silicon (single junction)
III-V (multijunction)
3 photons converted to current at 3.0 V
less photon energy lost to heat
2 photons converted to current at 0.7 V

123. Fracking

125. Operating efficiency: 1/3 of the sun
coefficients per ASTM E :
34.5%
34.2%
33.3%!
33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL
G. S. Kinsey, W. Bagienski, A. Nayak, R. Gordon, V. Garboushian, “Advancing Efficiency and Scale in CPV Arrays”, IEEE J. Photovolt., vol. 3, no. 2, pp , doi: /JPHOTOV , 2013.