1. Factors Influencing

2. Presidential Decision Making

3. 1. Time Available How much (quantity) time does the president have?
If severe time constraints are involved, the situation is defined as a crisis.
Possible last minute commutation of a death sentence

4. Nuclear War: 30 minutes away

5. Nuclear War in Europe Scenario

6. Commuting a death sentence

7. 30 month sentence commuted by Pres
30 month sentence commuted by Pres. Bush after “Scooter” Libby named a CIA operative

8. Foreign Embassy Attack

9. Should he have left?

10. 2. Amount of Prior Study and Preparation
Readiness

11. The decision to try to send men to the moon would involve this factor
The decision to try to send men to the moon would involve this factor. Was the US ready when Kennedy challenged the country to win the space race?

12. How much is really known about the Iranian Nuclear program
How much is really known about the Iranian Nuclear program? How far along? Who is it a threat to? (defensive war, preemptive war, or proactive war)

13. M1A Abrams Tank destroyed in Iraq.

14. Roadside bomb crater Iraq
Humvee destroyed in Iraq by roadside bomb.

15. "As you know, you go to war with the Army you have
"As you know, you go to war with the Army you have. They're not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time."
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

16. How much did Kennedy really know about how far the missiles in Cuban were from being ready for launch?

17. 3. Importance of the Issue
How important is the issue really?

18. Flag Burning: Is it the deciding factor on who to vote for?

22. Illegal Immigration: Who wants them and why and who does not want them and why?

23. Potential nuclear war over Cuba or Iran v
Potential nuclear war over Cuba or Iran v. the decision to see Alvin and the Chipmunks

24. 4. Personal Beliefs
The president’s political ideology as well as any other convictions that influence decision making.
JFK (Liberal, Catholic)
Bush ’43 (Conservative, Protestant)
Carter (Conservative Democrat, Baptist, supported prayer in school)

26. 5. Prior Experience This factor is one of the most important.
Consider President Bush ’41 making decisions regarding foreign intelligence.
JFK had backed down to the USSR at the Bay of Pigs, the Vienna Conference, and over the Berlin Wall

27. Two terms Representative from Texas.
Ambassador to the United Nations
Chief of the U. S. Liaison Office in the People's Republic of China
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Chairman of the Republican National Committee

29. 6. Style of Decision Making
How does the president make decisions?

30. Truman: A loner

31. Carter: Small Inner Circle

32. Clinton: Larger Group

33. 7. Formal Rules Written rules: the US Constitution Federal laws
Commander-in-chief
Federal laws
Civil Rights Act of 1965
Treaties
NATO, SEATO
Declarations
Monroe Doctrine
Axis-of-Evil

34. Commander-in-Chief

35. Civil Rights Act of 1965

39. 8. Informal Rules Tradition Protocol
Red Mass: Sunday before SCOTUS term
Protocol
Seating at a state dinner
Press protocol in the White House
Other unwritten rules that govern behavior of the president (i.e. “chain of command”)

40. Red Mass

41. State Dinner

42. Press Conference

43. 9. Available Resources
Tangible things that the president has at his disposal.

44. Truman only had two of the Atomic Bombs. So what do you target?

45. U2 Spy plane to gather data and how many ships will it take to blockade Cuba?

46. Available Military Resources
As of 2003, the United States occupied over 700 installations in over 36 countries worldwide. Some of the largest contingents are:
Germany 75,603
Japan (US Forces Japan) 40,045
South Korea (US Forces Korea) 29,086 Italy 10,449
United Kingdom 10,331

47. 10. Status Relationships
People who have face-to-face or easy contact with the president and influence decisions

48. Nixon and Kissinger

49. Bush and Blair

50. Clinton and Blair

51. 11. External Decision Makers
People who influence the president but never actually communicate with the president
Hostages in Iran influenced Carter’s attempted rescued.
Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Starving refugees in Darfur
Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground."
"The enemy has a vote on this," Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

52. Hostages in Iran influenced Carter’s attempted rescued.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

53. DARFUR, SUDAN

54. Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground."
"The enemy has a vote on this,"
Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

55. 12. Public Opinion The opinion of the populace.
Both domestic and international
Public opinion is a tough factor because presidents have so much influence on it, it is sometimes difficult to determine which came first, the decision or public opinion.

57. James David Barber’s The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House.
Positive
Negative
Active
ADAPTIVE: Confident, flexible; create opportunities for action; enjoy the exercise of power & do not take themselves too seriously; power is used as a means to achieve beneficial results.
F. D. Roosevelt, H. Truman, J. F. Kennedy, G. Ford (G. W. Bush 1st term)
COMPULSIVE: power is a means to self-realization; expend great energy on tasks derive little joy; preoccupied with whether failing or succeeding; low self-esteem; inclined to rigidity & are highly driven; problem managing aggression.
W. Wilson, H. Hoover, A. Lincoln, L. B. Johnson, R. Nixon, (J. Kerry, A. Gore, H. Clinton)
Passive
COMPLIANT: superficially optimistic; seek to be loved; easily manipulated; have low self-esteem overcome by an ingratiating personality; react rather than initiate.
W. H. Taft, W. Harding, R. Reagan, W. Clinton
WITHDRAWN: respond to a sense of duty; avoid power; low self-esteem compensated by service to others; respond rather than initiate; avoid conflict and uncertainty; emphasize principles, procedures; an aversion to politicking.
C. Coolidge, D. Eisenhower, G. Washington, (G.H.W. Bush, G. W. Bush 2nd term?)