1. 4.1 - 1 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Lecture Slides Elementary Statistics Eleventh Edition and the Triola Statistics Series by Mario F. Triola

2. 4.1 - 2 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 4 Probability 4-1 Review and Preview 4-2 Basic Concepts of Probability 4-3 Addition Rule 4-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics 4-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability 4-6 Probabilities Through Simulations 4-7 Counting

3. 4.1 - 3 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Section 4-7 Counting

4. 4.1 - 4 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Key Concept In many probability problems, the big obstacle is finding the total number of outcomes, and this section presents several methods for finding such numbers without directly listing and counting the possibilities.

5. 4.1 - 5 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Fundamental Counting Rule For a sequence of two events in which the first event can occur m ways and the second event can occur n ways, the events together can occur a total of ways.

6. 4.1 - 6 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Test Question Imagine that you are taking a test. The first question is True/False, the second is a multiple choice question with four possible answers, and the third question is multiple choice with 6 possible answers. If you didn’t study, and must select answers to the three questions totally at random, what is the probability of getting them all correct?

7. 4.1 - 7 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Notation The factorial symbol ! denotes the product of decreasing positive whole numbers. For example, By special definition, 0! = 1.

8. 4.1 - 8 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Factorials

9. 4.1 - 9 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. A collection of n different items can be arranged in order n! different ways. (This factorial rule reflects the fact that the first item may be selected in n different ways, the second item may be selected in n – 1 ways, and so on.) Factorial Rule

10. 4.1 - 10 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Permutations Rule (when items are all different) If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of permutations (or sequences) of r items selected from n available items (without replacement) is Requirements: 1.There are n different items available. (This rule does not apply if some of the items are identical to others.) 2.We select r of the n items (without replacement). 3.We consider rearrangements of the same items to be different sequences. (The permutation of ABC is different from CBA and is counted separately.)

11. 4.1 - 11 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Permutations Evaluate the expression: 5 P 3

12. 4.1 - 12 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Permutations Rule (when some items are identical to others) Requirements: 1.There are n items available, and some items are identical to others. 2.We select all of the n items (without replacement). 3.We consider rearrangements of distinct items to be different sequences. If the preceding requirements are satisfied, and if there are n 1 alike, n 2 alike,... n k alike, the number of permutations (or sequences) of all items selected without replacement is

13. 4.1 - 13 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Permutation Rule In this classroom, there are 5 males and 4 females. How many different ways are there for the nine of us to line up at the door when the bell rings?

14. 4.1 - 14 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Combinations Rule Requirements: 1.There are n different items available. 2.We select r of the n items (without replacement). 3.We consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same. (The combination of ABC is the same as CBA.) If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of combinations of r items selected from n different items is

15. 4.1 - 15 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Combination Problem The eight of you decide to start the Statistics Club at RHS. How many way are there to select a President, Vice-President, and Treasurer? How many ways are there to select a three member recruitment committee?

16. 4.1 - 16 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. When different orderings of the same items are to be counted separately, we have a permutation problem, but when different orderings are not to be counted separately, we have a combination problem. Permutations versus Combinations

17. 4.1 - 17 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Recap In this section we have discussed:  The fundamental counting rule.  The permutations rule (when items are all different).  The permutations rule (when some items are identical to others).  The combinations rule.  The factorial rule.