1. DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

2. INITIAL CONDITION: 1 st January 2016 Experimental Extended range prediction Experimental Extended range prediction

3. Real-time forecast based on 1 st January 2016 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members). Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578

4. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

5. Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

6. Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

7. Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

8. Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

9. Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

10. Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

11. The next 20 days forecast indicates that  Western disturbance activities are likely to cause precipitation over the western Himalayan region during all 4 pentads with above normal precipitation during 2 nd pentad.  A feeble easterly wave trough is likely to cause normal rainfall activity over southern parts of Tamil Nadu during the first pentad.  Remaining parts of India is likely to experience dry weather which is normal during this part of the season.  Below normal night minimum temperatures are likely over south peninsula during 1 st pentad and over Gangetic planes and parts of central India during 3 rd pentad.  A fresh spell of MJO associated convective anomaly is expected to appear over African region and expected to move eastward towards Indian ocean. Key points from the present forecast