1. 1 Typhoon Track and Intensity Simulations by WRF with a New TC-Initialization Scheme HIEP VAN NGUYEN and YI-LENG CHEN Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

2. 2 Outline + Review on TC-initialization + A new TC-initialization technique + Results + Statistical evaluation for four typhoons over the South China Sea in 2006 + Summary

3. 3 Review on TC-initialization + TCs form and develop over open ocean where observations are few. + The initial conditions for meso-scale models are interpolated from coarse resolution global analysis + The analyzed initial vortices are too large and too weak (Kurihara et al., 1993). + Vortex specification: removing the analyzed vortex, construct a bogus vortex, and insert the bogus vortex to the observed TC location (Iwasaki et al., 1987; Mathur, 1991; Kurihara et al., 1993)

4. 4 TC initialization can be divided into three groups: (1)a bogus vortex constructed by model integration; (Kurihara et al., 1993; Lui et al., 1997) (2) a bogus vortex constructed by analytic empirical functions; (Fujita, 1952; Holland, 1980; Chan and Williams, 1987; Iwasaki et al., 1987; Mathur, 1991; Nam and Davis, 2001; Kwon and Cheong, 2009). (3) a bogus vortex constructed by three- (3DVAR) or four- dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) with bogus data as one of observation sources. ( Zou and Xiao, 2000; Pu and Braun, 2001; Zhao at al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2008)

5. 5 Assumptions: + In a short period of time (<1 hour), the TC moves, however, its structure does not change significantly. + TC structure at the initial time is a function of environment conditions including SST, land surface properties, environment winds and other environment meteorological variables. Methodology: Integrate model for a short period of time (dt=1hour), the vortex structure at t=t0+dt is used to construct vortex structure at the initial time (t=t0) for the next cycle run. The initial TC in the model is well adjusted to the environment after a number of cycle runs. Objectives: To propose a new TC-initialization technique for WRF model with an initial bogus vortex which is well adjusted to the environment and compatible with the WRF model employed.

6. 6 Separate the vortex part The cycle process only applies for the vortex part and in a radius of R from the current TC center. A variable, F, is first separated into vortex part and environment Where: F V, F E are the vortex part and environment part of F, respectively

7. 7 Separate the vortex part (cont) F E is computed using modified methods of Kurihara et. al. (1993) Where [ ] round an argument to the nearest whole number Delta is horizontal grid resolution in km for each domain.

8. 8 Where dx, dy are the differences x and y directions between observed TC center and simulated TC center at t+dt Cycle runs After each cycle, the vortex part is updated with The weighting function, W, is similar to that in Kwon and Cheong (2009)

9. Typhoon Morakot (2009) Time: 00 UTC 6 August, Observed: Pmin=960 mb Vmax=38 m s -1 The difference in vortex part between the analysis and after vortex initialization for the NT run for (a) SLP (hPa) and (b) 10 m wind vector (m s-1

10. Time: 00 UTC 6 August, Observed: Pmin=960 mb Vmax=38 m s -1 East-west cross section along TC center (23.0 N) Thick: SLP Thin: 10 m wind speed WB CTRL NT SLP U10 SLP U10 SLP U10

11. MORAKOT (2009) Radar reflectivity at 1200 UTC 8 August, 2009 for (a) observed simulated reflectivity of more than 25 dBz for (b) the NT, (c) CTRL and (d) WB runs after 60 h of integrations NTWB CTRL obs

12. 12 Compare with QuikScat at 10 UTC Aug 6 2009 Black cross is satellite estimated TC center Core is too weak, eye is too large, not right location, wind is too weak CTRL QuikScat CTRL QuikScat Morakot 2009

13. 13 Compare with QuikScat at 10 UTC Aug 6 2009 Black cross is satellite estimated TC center Wind near the core is too weak, so does TC intensity, wind is too strong outside WRF Bogus QuikScat Morakot 2009

14. 14 Compare with QuikScat at 10 UTC Aug 6 2009 Black cross is satellite estimated TC center Morakot 2009 New scheme QuikScat

15. 15 Typhoon Chanchu (2006) Vertical-eastwest cross section through the center at 0000 UTC 15 May + horizontal wind speed (contour, m s- 1), + vertical wind vector (vector, m s-1) + total condensate mixing ratio (g kg-1) for cycle number (a) 4, (b) 20, and (c) 80.

16. 16 Statistical verification for the four typhoons over the South China Sea in 2006 The name, number of run cases, and initial time in 2006 for the four TCs used for the experiments Name No of forecastsInitial time Chanchu40000 UTC 14 May, 1200 UTC 14 May, 0000 UTC 15 May, 1200 UTC 15 May Durian30000 UTC 02 December, 1200 UTC 02 December, 0000 UTC 03 December Prapiroon20000 UTC 02 August, 1200 UTC 02 August Xangsane20000 UTC 29 September, 1200 UTC 29 September

17. 17 Super Typhoon Chanchu (2006) Mean absolute errors for four typhoons (2006) over the South China Sea WB CTRL NT WB CTRL NT WB CTRL NT

18. 18 Mean error statistics for all four typhoons Forec ast Time Track error (km) Max WSP error (m s-1) Min SLP error (hPa) NTCTRLWBNTCTRLWBNTCTRLWB 00220221264431 63061362161084225 1246685721511104129 185069893149113827 2457801063119133223 305182113498132620 3686113 476142014 428411813265614 11 481031351465441478

19. 19 Summary on model initialization + A model self-bogus vortex was constructed for WRF to provide high-resolution initial conditions for tropical cyclone simulations. + Three separate simulations including CTRL, WB, NT were performed for seven typhoons over NWP +The NT runs show advantages in generating realistic vortex features including SLP, winds, warm core, and TC size. +The NT scheme shows significant improvements in TC simulations including asymmetric structure, track + The NT scheme shows advantages in intensity simulation at forecast period up to 36h

20. 20 Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Hawaii. We also would like to thank the USDA Forest Service; the University of Hawaii/Maui High Performance Computing Center (UH/MHPCC) for helping to fund this research; the Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research (JMAR)/NOAA for funding the publication costs; Profs. F. F. Jin, P.-S. Chu, D. E. Stevens, and K. F. Cheung for their comments; Mei-Yu Chang and Dr. S.-C. Lin of Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, for the land surface data and rainfall data used in this research.

21. 21 Nguyen, H. V., and Y.-L. Chen, 2011: High Resolution Initialization and Simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009). Mon. Wea. Rev. 139,1463-1491 Nguyen, H. V., and Y.-L. Chen, 2011: WRF Initialization and Simulations of Four Typhoons in 2006 over the South China Sea. (In Preparation). Main reference