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London Investor Show Trends for 2016: The Silent Megacrash & Depression, creeping up on you since 2011 with Francis D Hunt aka ‘The Market Sniper’
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Introduction & Session Plan www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Introduction Who am I? Why should you care? What I am going to tell you today 2. The Detail I. MegaCrash Part 1 – The Banks III. MegaCrash Part 2 – China, Cargo & Commodities III. MegaCrash Part 3 – The Indices
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Introduction & Session Plan www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 4. Summary & Conclusion 5. A small quick fire slide of predictions 6. Your Personal Solution.. And must do’s right now! 7. Learn More Quickly 8. How to engage me, should you wish 9. Questions
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Part 1 - Who am I? www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Trading for 26 years across most markets Originator of the Hunt Volatility Funnel [HVF] Set up & Theory MBA in International Finance & Economics Member of the STA
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Why should you care? www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper So what? Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.– 1. Euro Crisis, Mk I, Mk II & MK III EURCHF floor to fail in January 2015 – for a 30% FX Trade overnight EURCHF Nov 2009 Fail prediction for 1400 pips & preceding the 2010 Jan ‘Greek Crisis Mk I’
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Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Floor Fail in January EURCHF www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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30% FX move in under an hour www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Retail Broker cost of Floor Fail in EURCHF www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014 www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The September Equity 2014, deflation sell off www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The August Equity 2015, sell off. We traded USDJPY for a 62.5 RRR www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The August Equity 2015, sell off. We traded USDJPY for a 62.5 RRR www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The August Equity 2015, sell off. We traded USDJPY for a 62.5 RRR www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The August Equity 2015, sell off. The break for Indices www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The August Equity 2015, sell off. What happened next www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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So Far we have picked the downlegs, are you ready for the main course? www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014/15 www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO) BEFORE
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper After target, 40% left on first Inverse HVF in a new trend likely to over-perform. set up over-performance bands to manage. Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO) AFTER 40% was closed for a 1:9.48 risk to reward ratio on over-performance
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Short call 2014, captured as it was breaking at 1020 First inverse HVF in new trend, anticipated over-performance target 881 - strong overshoot just touched 800. Rolls Royce (RR) BEFORE
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Rolls Royce (RR) BEFORE
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper GPX - 70% Market Cap decimation BEFORE Textbook inverse HVF Perfect set up with a windup within 70% devaluation performed well Entered short from 102 to exit at target of 28.75
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Gulf Sands petroleum (GPX) BEFORE Textbook inverse HVF Perfect set up with a windup within 70% devaluation performed well Entered short from 100 to exit at target of 27.75
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A MegaCrash that will destroy Trillions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. A near Global Central Bank Controlled monetary experiment that has gone wrong. 2. The Central banking Cabal lead by the Fed, had limited options to them post the DotCom Boom. 3. They have continued to play the same card to ever further extremes & the game is up 4. We are on the verge of an imminent Crash, & the old painkillers don’t work anymore if they ever did.
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3 Reasons why. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1.MegaCrash 1 - The Banks Again 2.MegaCrash 2 – China, Cargo & Commodities 3.MegaCrash 3 – The Equity Indices
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The Banks Again! www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper The Banks Again. Was Anything much rectified post 2008
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Bank Crisis MKII – Deutsche Bank BailIn, Barclays Next
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Mega Crash Part II The Banking Crisis MK II 1.In September 2015 I made a YouTube Clip, Deutsche to Go Bust ergo Bail in/out etc.. 2.In fact we expect it to be the early break, of a more broader MK II bank failure and bail ins/outs round 3.With a UK Bank next to follow Deutsche.. Barclays Bank 4.Prediction Mark Carney will be pressed to ‘confirm’ Barclays & British Banking is Strong, within the next 3 months.
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Mega Crash Main Stream Media Arrives Banking Part II
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Mega Crash Main Stream Media Arrives Banking Part II
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Bank Crisis MKII – Deutsche Bank Bail In/Out,
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Bank Crisis MKII – Deutsche Bank Bail In/Out,
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Deutsche Bank Bail In/Out currently 13.23 from 30 during our call
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper The Odd Derivative - Euro 54.7 Trillion X20 GDP, X5 EU GDP
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Deutsche Bank - 5Year CDS
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper If this was a mining stock what would you think comes next?
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Barclays gives up the 200 level
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Barclays Breaks & gives up the 200 level
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Standard Chartered, Dodged Sub Prime how is it doing?
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Standard Chartered, Keep on keeping on
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper STAN Daily Inverse HVF BEFORE called at the end of 2013 when an inverse HVF was forming called a short from 1550 to collapse to 1240
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper made our target set up another Inverse HVF in 2014 STAN Daily Inverse HVF After Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze = Traders Edge
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Standard Chartered, We traded many of the set ups the next
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Standard Chartered, Dodged Sub Prime how is it doing?
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Final Comment on Banks, Debt & Liquidity
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Part 2 - China, Cargo & Commodities - 2011 www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper How is it Looking In China, Commodities & Global Trade?
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The Baltic Dry Index www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Maersk – ‘Its worse than 2008!’ www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Dr Copper the Industrial Metal of Building www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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We Traded it on an Inverted HVF www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Contained initial fall, that got disorderly later www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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… and again on short timeframes 230 for run to 200 www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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…Target, then Broadening & dip www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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AUD/NZD – Key Inflection points Monthly Chart www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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AUD/NZD – Key Inflection points Weekly Chart 2011 www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Brent Oil – [2011 Red] Weekly Chart www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Brent Oil – [2011 Red] Weekly Chart www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Part 3 - Indices - Apocalypse Now’ish Equities & Indices 1.A suckers rally will be on the way, not exactly clear how long it may last 2.Very soon to be followed by a worse than 2008 Equity Market complete blood bath, particularly in the US 3.Guest appearance the USDJPY aka the ‘Fear Index’ 4.Hear are my Technical Reasons…
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The Indices www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper With the FED being the fulcrum of the Central Banking Cartel. Lets examine US Indices
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Your 7 year feast from bottom of 2009 - Dow
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Thought ‘Head & Shoulders’ was a shampoo? - Dow
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Seen this movie before? Meet Mr 2007 - 50%+ dive – Dow 14,200 to 6,500
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Golden over extended S&P
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Moar H&S’s
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Its Started Already Russell 2000, a small company index
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Super Extended Nasdaq has a ‘Fake out’ Rally in it first
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Remember the ‘Fear index’ USDJPY
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Fibo extended USDJPY weekly
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Remember the ‘Fear index’ USDJPY weekly
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Remember the ‘Fear index’ USDJPY weekly
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Conclusions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1.Key Major European and UK Banks [US too] are selling off to exceedingly low market capitalization levels. No smoke without fire! 2.The derivatives bombs they hold are HUGE and were never effectively dealt with! Think of each bank as having an embedded LTCM hedge fund, only with larger leverage. 3.Junk Debt market unravelling as an early indicator of distress for both companies, Banks & Institutions holding that debt.
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Conclusions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1.The Great Commodity and Energy & Industrial Metals Specific sell off, began actually in 2011, and has been in a contained fall since, on weakening China ability to hold things together under its own debt issues. 2.Shipping, Global Trade & Oil [economic activity measure] are all at extreme lows. Can a supply Glut explain it all away, from Oil, Containers & falling world trade? 3.Major Emerging markets & FX sell off - TRY, ZAR, MXN, RUB, BRL etc.., all with $ [USD] denominated debt, getting more expensive as they depreciate.
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Predictions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Prediction Mark Carney will be pressed to ‘confirm’ Barclays & British Banking is Strong, within the next 3 months. 2. Deutsche Bank will require recapitalisation, Bail in, along with Soc Gen, Barclays, a number of Italian/Spanish/Other banks. Later in the US, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley & CitiGroup will leadthe US wobble. Expect Bail outs & in’s this time 3. Major US Indices will go into full fledged Bear territory, with falls of 25 - 60+% possible 4. Equity wise, time for Cash, Puts & Shorts + ‘button down the hatches’ 5. Precious Metal Miners should be your only rare Long holdings
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Predictions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. The EURUSD will run through parity and 0.9575 levels, probably on Sovereign Debt & Banking issues. Implying the 2 nd wave crisis will likely emerge there first
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EURUSD Weekly Predictions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Predictions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Solutions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Keep High Cash levels 2. Spread deposit holdings across strongest banks 3. Have multiple Jurisdiction bank accounts – even Singapore/Uruguay 4. Be short the market generally, particularly US Markets 5. ‘button down the hatches’ on Capital Investment & Expenditure
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Solutions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Personally Hold Physical Gold & Silver 2. Precious Metal Miners should be your only rare Long holdings 3. Learn To Trade! Especially Short right now.. It’s a little different from Buy & Hold
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Learn to Trade www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. If your existing situation is: Successes, but ‘give back’ periods, Fits & Starts progress. Need help, yet least prone to ask for it by nature – Individual Creative 2. Time to Compress Time Continuum to Attaining a ‘Shift’
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The Outakes & Conclusion www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Solution - Support : Become a specialist at 1 thing Have a detailed complete strategy at all levels Have a REAL edge Low Emotion Trading Follow my trades
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The Outakes & Conclusion www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Solution - Support : Trade with a Probability Outcome with a RRR approach Know your Bias’s, through external assessment Join a Private Online Community of ‘like minded’ – A Tribe Learn Patience, Selectivity & Efficiency Attain Precision, Relaxed Execution & Positive Outcomes
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The Outakes & Conclusion www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper 1. Solution - Support : Develop your ‘self awareness’ Leave Impulse based responses behind Mentorship Share Common Detailed Plan Claim ‘the shift’ in your trading
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Products www.TheMarketSniper.com ProductIncludesCost / Value Trader Secrets Master Keys 1hr condensed break out principles. Webinar ‘How to become part of the 9%’ Free Link http://tradersecretmasterkeys.co.uk/webinar/webinar-register.phphttp://tradersecretmasterkeys.co.uk/webinar/webinar-register.php Trader Value Pack 5+ hours of content on DVD and CD £127.00 ‘Over the Shoulder’ Trading Day Live Location Day with Francis £147.00 Link http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-market-sniper-francis-hunt-8007187689http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-market-sniper-francis-hunt-8007187689 HVF Draw Tool MT4 £457.00 12x Sunday Sessions 12x 1hr live webinar on prevalent market conditions and HVF theory + HVF Draw Tool MT4 £747.00 Basecamp Membership (online) Trading & Coaching community: share ideas, winning trades with a supportive community. Joining Fee - £497.00 Mthly - £127.00 Trader Metamorphosis Program 6 month teaching and coaching program includes: 2 day theory weekend + 2x trading day + 2x One2One follow up + 12x Sunday Sessions + 6 mth Basecamp membership + HVF Draw Tool MT4 Live - £5,497.00 Live Early Bird - £4,997.00 Buddy Rate - £8,994.00 Link https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-program-6-month-program-tickets-18787348465?ref=estwhttps://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-program-6-month-program-tickets-18787348465?ref=estw One-2-One Mentoring 4 x 45 min 8 x 45 min 12x 45 min $498.75 per session $398.75 per session $324.75 per session 20% off 35% off $1,995.00 $3,190.00 $3,897.00 ©2015 – The Market Sniper
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Follow, Contact and Questions www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Avoid Inertia, at key moments, its time.. …To Take action Email: Trader@TheMarketSniper.com ; Skype is ‘FrancoFXTrader’Trader@TheMarketSniper.com Free Items on www.TheMarketSniper.com [Click Shop]www.TheMarketSniper.com Follow on Twitter @TheMarketSniper YouTube & LinkedIn subscribe/connect: - Francis Hunt
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Contact Francis: Trader@TheMarketSniper.comTrader@TheMarketSniper.com Products & Services The Market Sniper Trader Value Pack 3 DVD set & Audio [5 hrs multi-topic] Coming soon! Only £124.95 FREE Webinar ‘Become part of the 9%’ includes a Crash Course on HVF Theory FREE Webinar ‘Become part of the 9%’ includes a Crash Course on HVF Theory on Eventbrite on Eventbrite TheMarketSniper.com/Products & Services TheMarketSniper.com/Products & Services
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper Appendices - USDZAR BEFORE USDSGD and USD ZAR landed Stranded Rand on the Beach - USDZAR, GBPZAR USDZAR Part 2 HVF Theory (Post Mortem) USDZAR Part 2 HVF Theory (Post Mortem) USDMXN, USDZAR, USDTRY, Emerging FX Crisis USDZAR USDZAR Golden Mean HVF 11.2500 TGT USDTRY & USDZAR big upside breaks today Rand weakness coming GBPZAR USDZAR EURZAR On YouTube Want to watch the Videos? Leave us your email address and we’ll send you a copy of the presentation
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper STAN Daily Inverse HVF On YouTube Standard Chartered Sell to 1252 Standard Chartered Down Down STAN STAN Breaks Macro set up Standard Chartered Want to watch the Videos? Leave us your email address and we’ll send you a copy of the presentation
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www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper EURCHF other Links AFTER EURCHF Floor to fail early 2015 EURGBP trade Gulfsands Petroleum Market Cap Decimation 75% GPX:LON On YouTube Want to watch the Videos? Leave us your email address and we’ll send you a copy of the presentation
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