1. NAME PANEL SESSION NAME 3 rd Science Working Group Meeting (SWG3) October 25th, 2002 NAME Science Working Group

2. OUTLINE 1.NAME SURVEY –Review the SWG recommendations for NAME Project Structure Modeling and Diagnostic Studies Field Campaign –Other recommendations for NAME US CLIVAR SSC GEWEX/GAPP –Action items for SWG members 2. PROPOSED TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SWG PANEL MEMBER ROTATION

3. SURVEY QUESTIONS SESSION 1: NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE (1)What aspects of the NAME Project structure would you like to see improved? (2)How do we develop more effective partnerships (e.g. NOAA-NASA-NSF; NCEP-NAME; unified modeling)?

4. NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE 3-Pronged –NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus) –VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field Implementation, Data Management, Logistics) –NAME Program Management (Agencies that fund NAME)

5. US CLIVAR SSC RECOMMENDATIONS: NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE PROGRAMMATIC: Develop concrete metrics that quantify how NAME research will impact model development and prediction capabilities (later). Formulate plans for the future beyond 2006. Vision for sustained observations and for the program’s evolution as a coordinated observational/modeling activity. Formalize interactions with Climate Process Teams currently being developed under US CLIVAR. Ensure that GCM-OBS and RMM-OBS Teams strongly interact with each other and with NAME observational activities. Develop plans for monitoring and evaluating these interactions.

6. NAME SWG RECOMMENDATIONS: NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE PROGRAMMATIC: Improve Communication / Outreach - Overview article in BAMS (focused on NAME 2004) - Town Meeting at AMS Annual Meeting in Long Beach - Expand NAME Webpage (news, FC activities, lists of funded projects, and publications (http://www.ucar.joss.edu/name)http://www.ucar.joss.edu/name Improve coordination with broader research community - CEOP-NAME interface (e.g.remotely sensed and model-derived data) - Human dimensions community (e.g. water resource mgmt; drought) - Global change community; trends Consider Future of NAME - Joint program between GEWEX and CLIVAR focused on monsoon systems, that grows out of the CEOP-NAME interface.

7. US CLIVAR SSC RECOMMENDATIONS: NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE SCIENTIFIC:  LAND SURFACE - Enhanced land surface observations and modeling should be high-priority aspects of the program (including land data assimilation work).  OTHER MONSOONS - NAME should improve coordination with other ongoing monsoon studies (e.g. MESA, AA Monsoon, CEOP, etc)  MODELING – Given NAME’s focus on deep convection in complex terrain, the regional modeling effort should include cloud-scale modeling efforts.  OCEAN PROCESSES – NAME should place more emphasis on the gathering of relevant marine data (important for monsoon modeling and interpretation of continental observations).

8. (1)Linkage to operational meteorology / NCEP Centers -Involve operational (NWS) meteorologists (NAME SWG; NAME Forecast Centers) -Invite personnel (e.g. postdocs) from Mexican SMN to work with HPC forecasters and EMC data assimilation experts during NAME 2004. -Involve EMC personnel (e.g. physical parameterization experts) in NAME Modeling-Obs Teams to identify specific needs in MRF, ETA and WRF models. (2) Quantifyable Goals -Develop year-by-year performance metrics that are directly relevant to NCEP Centers (HPC, CPC). (More later) -Goals must be explicit and "up front"– accountability. -Short term goal: diurnal/daily timescales -Long term goal: monthly/seasonal time scales IMPROVING THE NCEP-NAME LINKAGE

9. STRAWMAN FOR NAME FORECAST CENTERS (1)Functions of Forecast Centers: Short term: Products for NAME 2004 Joint US_Mexico daily WX discussions (TUC-SMN-HPC) WX Briefings for NAME 2004 (e.g. Research Aircraft Operations) Airport logistics in Tucson for Research Aircraft Operations Long term: Joint US_Mexico Products Forecasts, monitoring, assessments Data analysis and exchange (e.g. HPC SDM log of Mexican radiosonde quality) (2)Organizational Involvement: NWS Rotating Team (Leader: E. Pytlak) WFO personnel from western region (e.g. Tucson, Flagstaff, Phoenix, Las Vegas) WFO personnel from southern region (e.g. El Paso, Albuquerque) NCEP/HPC (includes training desks) SMN Rotating Team (Leader: M. Cortez) SMN personnel (3)Locations of Centers: NWS WFO in Tucson, AZ, USA SMN in Mexico City, MEXICO

10. STRAWMAN FOR NAME FORECAST CENTERS (4) Other functions of Centers: Training for NWS /SMN Meteorologists Site visits between Forecast Centers (TUC - SMN) Visits from other centers (HPC, NHC) (5) Issues for further discussion: NWS and SMN “buy in” per improved regional forecasting and climate monitoring Coordination with NAME Project Office (UCAR/JOSS) for data archival Do we need to plan a small workshop to discuss specifics?

11. SURVEY QUESTIONS SESSION 2: NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES (1)The AGCM community has formed a NAME GCM-OBS team focused on the diurnal cycle. How should the RMM-OBS team be organized? (2) How can the NAME AGCM-OBS and RMM-OBS teams contribute to the planning efforts for NAME observing system enhancements? (3) What are the short-term goals, long-term goals and performance metrics for improved warm season precipitation prediction for each Team?

12. CHALLENGE FOR THE RMM-OBS TEAM Identify a common theme that the RMM community agrees to: - key focus issue : diurnal cycle of convection in complex coastal terrain - other issues: shallow gravity waves and organization of convection to larger scales; LLJ/moisture surge relationships; relative roles of land surface and SST effects Develop a Strategy similar to GCM-OBS Team: - clearly spell out how this group complements on-going RMM work; - involve folks on the OBS side of the RMM-OBS team involved in NAME 2004.

13. What are the short-term goals, long-term goals and performance metrics for improved warm season precipitation prediction? Actions for NAME SWG and Modeling-OBS teams (1) Define the goals (2) Identify the metrics (3) Explicitly tie these to performance measures in operational meteorology

14. SHORT-TERM GOALS, LONG-TERM GOALS Short term goals: - Improved observations and monitoring - Improved simulations of warm season climate over N. America (P, E, low-level winds) - Enhance warm season precipitation prediction at diurnal / daily time scales Long term goals: - Enhance warm season precipitation prediction at intraseasonal-to-interannual timescales - International Assessments (to support policy decisions) - Improved climate observations

15. PERFORMANCE METRICS Develop milestones for new / improved warm season precipitation forecasts Develop new performance metrics tied to these forecasts: - comparisons of basic monthly and seasonal means with observations; - obs-vs-simulated frequency distribution of rainfall intensity; - quality of ensemble predictions (forecast reliability; freq of extreme events); - new products (NA forecasts; NA drought monitor; International Hazards) Develop “quantitative” future performance goals Explicitly tie these to performance measures in operational meteorology (e.g. NWS HPC and CPC). - QPF (day 1, day 2, day 3) - 6-10 day forecast skill (Heidke) - monthly and seasonal forecast skill NAME SWG needs to develop a strategic plan for this. Workshop needed?

16. HPC QPF verification 1-inch threat score

18. Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Forecast Seasonal forecasts have a.5-month lead time Score will be updated quarterly as a 4-year running mean (36 forecasts)

19. SURVEY QUESTIONS SESSION 3: NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN (1) What should the NAME SWG do to achieve a more effective design of the NAME observing system?

20. NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN Radar/Profiling/RadiosondesEnhanced Precipitation Gauge Network R.V. Ron Brown Radiosondes/PIBALS

21. What should the NAME SWG do to achieve a more effective design of the NAME observing system? More SWG / Team Meetings - NCAR/CSU Tier1: Radar-Profiler-Sounding Team Meeting (Oct. 9, 2002) - regular (monthly) teleconferences leading up to NAME 2004 Post “White Papers” for each NAME observational network - NAME Tier 1 Radar-Profiler-Sounding Network - R/V Ron Brown Participation in NAME - NAME Raingauge network Activate NAME Forecast Centers - NWS and SMN “buy in” - Coordination between Forecast Operations Center and NAME Project Office Develop NAME Data Policy - commitment to firm deadlines for raw data delivery to UCAR JOSS - preliminary QC and final data distribution

22. NAME DELIVERABLES Coupled climate models capable of predicting North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance; Infrastructure to observe and monitor the North American monsoon system; More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability; Contributions to the assessment of climate variability and long- term climate change in the North American monsoon region; Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across the Americas.

23. SURVEY QUESTIONS The NAME SWG has Terms of Reference, but these do not include membership rotation off the SWG. What are your opinions about how this should be done?

24. NAME SCIENCE WORKING GROUP NAME science is managed by a SWG that has been approved by the CLIVAR/VAMOS and CLIVAR Pan American panels in consultation with U.S. GEWEX. The SWG Develops and leads research to achieve NAME objectives The NAME SWG members: Jorge Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica Rene Lobato, IMTA, Mexico Hugo Berbery, UMD Jose Meitin, NSSL Rit Carbone, NCAR Chet Ropelewski, IRI Miguel Cortez, SMN Jae Schemm, CPC Art Douglas, Creighton Univ. Siegfried Schubert, NASA Michael Douglas, NSSL Jim Shuttleworth, UAZ Dave Gutzler, UNM Dave Stensrud, NSSL Wayne Higgins, CPC (Chair) Chidong Zhang, RSMAS

25. PROPOSED TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SWG MEMBER ROTATION 1. Nominal appointment duration - 3 years 2. Assign (randomly) all current SWG members (including the chair) a completion date so that 1/3 rotate off each of the next three years. 3. Each NAME SWG member may be reappointed for one additional 3 year term. 4. Approval Process for SWG nominations: US CLIVAR Pan AM Panel, US CLIVAR SSC GEWEX GAPP * After confirmation, the terms of reference and slate of nominees are forwarded to the VAMOS Panel for final review and approval. Note: 1. The Pan AM Panel chair has offered to take this up at the next Pan Am Panel meeting (December 2002). 2. Motion to forward these terms and slate of 4 new SWG nominees (inc. ~2 operational meteorologists) to the Pan Am Panel for approval.

26. Development of New Performance Metrics Issues for NAME SWG and Modeling Teams: How do we develop a work plan to formalize the new performance measures? What is their relationship to existing “operational” performance measures? How does NAME coordinate with operational meteorology? How long will this take? Do we need to plan a small workshop to discuss specifics? Responsible (lead) labs/programs/persons for each proposed new performance measure?

27. Potential Skill (red)- Based on statistical and dynamical model forecasts using perfect SSTs. Current Skill (green) Research will narrow the gap between current skill (green) and what is possible (red) 2 nd coldest Nov-Dec in observed record. Forecast cold, obs warm Cold summer bucks trend La NinaEl Nino Temperature Anomaly correlation SKILL Obs=trend, W W. cold, large mo-mo variability