1. Inferential statistics by example Maarten Buis Monday 2 January 2005

2. Two statistics courses Descriptive Statistics (McCall, part 1) Inferential Statistics (McCall, part 2 and 3)

3. Course Material McCall: Fundamental Statistics for Behavioral Sciences. SPSS (available from Surfspot.nl) Lectures: 2 x a week computer labs: 1 x a week. course website

4. setup of lectures Recap of material assumed to be known New Material Student Recap

5. How to pass this course Read assigned portions of McCall before each lecture Do the exercises Do the computer lab assignments, and hand them in before Tuesday 17:00! come to the computer lab come to the lectures ask questions: during class or to the course mailing list

6. What is inference? Drawing general conclusions from partial information Based on your observations some conclusions are more plausible than others. Compare with logic

7. Sources of uncertainty in inference Sample Measurement Model Typos when typing the data into SPSS Inference, as discussed here, assumes that random sampling error is by far the most dominant source of uncertainty.

8. How is inference done? If a null hypothesis is true than the probability of observing the data is so small that either we have drawn a very weird sample or the null hypothesis is false. (Ronald Fisher) We use a “good” procedure to choose between two hypotheses, whereby “good” means that you draw the right conclusion in 95% of the times you use that procedure. (Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson)

9. PrdV New populist party, wanted to participate in the next election if 41% of the Dutch population thought that “the PrdV would be an asset to Dutch politics”. This was asked to a sample of 2,598 people between, and on 16 December only 31% agreed. Peter R. de Vries decided not to participate in the next election.

10. The Inference Problem The 31% people approving is 31% of the people in the sample. Peter R. de Vries doesn’t care about what people in the sample think, he cares about what all the people in the Netherlands think. Could it be that he has drawn a “weird” sample, and that in the Netherlands 41% or more really think he would be an asset to Dutch politics?

11. Two hypotheses H 0 : 41% or more support PrdV H A : less than 41% support PrdV

12. A thought experiment (1) If support for PrdV in the Netherlands is 41% and we draw 100 random samples of 2598 persons, than we get 100 estimates of the support for PrdV, some of them a bit too high, some of them a bit too low. We would expect that 5 samples would show a support for PrdV of 39% or less. If we find a support for PrdV of 39% or less and reject H 0, than we have followed a procedure that would result in taking the right decision in 95% of the times we used that procedure.

13. What does that 39% mean? We propose the following procedure: If we find a support for PrdV of less than x% than reject H 0 We choose x in such a way that the probability of rejecting H 0 when we shouldn’t is only 5% The reason for mistakenly rejecting H 0 is drawing a ‘weird’ sample.

14. Where does that 39% come from? If H 0 is true, than we draw a sample from a population in which the support for PrdV is 41% We can let the computer draw many (100,000) samples and calculate the mean in each sample. 50,000 or 5% of these samples have a mean of 39% or less. So if we reject H 0 when we find a support of 39% or less, than the probability of making a mistake is 5%

16. Where did that 39% come from? If we draw many random samples, and compute the mean in each sample, than the distribution of these means will be approximately normally distributed with a mean of.41 and a standard deviation of Remember that the sample size is 2598, and the SD of a proportion is, so the Standard Deviation of the distribution of means is 5% of the samples has a support for PrdV of less than 39%

17. Neyman Pearson hypothesis testing This procedure is the Neyman Pearson hypothesis testing approach Note that it tells us something quality of the procedure we use to make a decision, not about the strength of evidence against H 0

18. Thought experiment (2) If the H 0 is true, than the probability of drawing a sample of size 2598 with a support for PrdV of 31% or less is 1.041 x 10 -25. This is so small that we think it is safe to reject H 0.

19. Where did that 1.041 x 10 -25 come from? In the 100,000 samples that were drawn from the population if H 0 were true none were lees than.31% So the probability of drawing this or a more extreme sample when H 0 is true is less than 1/100,000. Remember that if H 0 is true, the distribution of means obtained from many samples is normal with a mean of.41 and a standard deviation of.0096 The proportion of samples with a mean less than.31 is 1.041 x 10 -25

20. Fisher hypothesis testing This procedure is Fisher hypothesis testing. Note that it gives us a measure of evidence against H 0, but it does not give us an indication of how likely we are to make the wrong decision.

21. Fisher vs. Neyman Pearson You will draw the same conclusion whichever method you use. However, it really helps to choose one approach when writing your results down.

22. Limits to inference More importantly, both assume random sampling, and we almost never have that. Testing is more helpful to determine whether the data is ‘screaming’ or whispering’ at us. Knowing the reasoning behind statistical inference will help you determine the weight you should assign to conclusions derived from statistical tests.

23. Terminology (1) Distribution means obtained from different samples is the sampling distribution of the mean. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution is the standard error. Proportion of samples that wrongly reject the H 0 is the significance level or  or Type I error rate. Proportion of samples that wrongly fail to reject H 0 is the Type II error rate or . Proportion of samples that will rightly reject H 0 is the power.

24. Terminology (2) The probability of the data given that H 0 is true is the p-value. Maximum p-value that will cause you to reject H 0 is also the level of significance.

25. What to do before Wednesday? Read Chapter 8 Do exercises of chapter 8