1. The Great Recession – A Historical Perspective

2. Headlines

3. Historical Perspective Recession Year Peak Unemployment Trough of GDP change Duration (months) 20016.4-0.6%8 19907.1-1.2%8 198110.8-3.4%16 19807.8-2.4%6 19739.0-4.3%16 Average7.0-2.3%10.8

4. The Great Recession Worse than your average recession. Worse than your average recession. Duration: 18 months (Dec 2007-June 2009) Duration: 18 months (Dec 2007-June 2009) 7 months longer than average 7 months longer than average Peak Unemployment: 10.2% Peak Unemployment: 10.2% 3.2% worse than average 3.2% worse than average Trough GDP change: -4.1% Trough GDP change: -4.1% 1.8% worse than average 1.8% worse than average

5. The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever

6. NY Times Headline

7. How bad was it? http://www.history.com/topics/great- depression http://www.history.com/topics/great- depression

8. 8 Great Recession vs. Great Depression Great Depression (1929 – 1933) Great Recession (2007 –2009) GDP Growth (%) -29%-4.2% Unemployment (%) 25%10.2% Inflation (%) -25%+2% DJIA Change (%) -89%-54% Bank Failures (#) 9,096 (50% of total) 137 (1% of total)

9. The Recession is over?

11. The recession is over? Officially ended in June 2009. Means the worst (trough) is over, does not mean the pain is over! We had two consecutive quarters of GDP growth. Still have unemployment of 6.6%, 10.2 million unemployed workers. Lots of serious economic/social issues

12. Total Private Employment – U.S.

13. Total Private Employment - Ohio

14. Unemployment Rate - US

15. Unemployment Rate Ohio/US

16. Unemployment for College Grads

17. How large is the output gap?

18. What about inflation?

19. What has recovered? Exports

20. Corporate Profits

21. Stock Market

22. What has not recovered Housing Prices

23. What has not recovered Construction

24. By sector http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/ 05/upshot/how-the-recession-reshaped-the- economy-in-255-charts.html?emc=eta1 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/ 05/upshot/how-the-recession-reshaped-the- economy-in-255-charts.html?emc=eta1

25. Encouraging Sign for the Future

26. Summary Recovery is not as strong as we would like, but we are on the right path. Recovery is not as strong as we would like, but we are on the right path. Leading indicators remain strong. Manufacturing, Exports, and Investments have all grown substantially. Leading indicators remain strong. Manufacturing, Exports, and Investments have all grown substantially. Inflation is not an issue. Inflation is not an issue. Projections for solid GDP and employment growth. Projections for solid GDP and employment growth. Recoveries take time (especially after a financial crisis). Recoveries take time (especially after a financial crisis). If history is a guide, the growth during the recovery will be greater than the decline during the Recession. If history is a guide, the growth during the recovery will be greater than the decline during the Recession.

27. LEST WE FORGET THE TREND! U.S. Per Capita Income since 1945