1. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 1 A Vision for PV Technology up to 2030 and beyond - An industry view - Brussels – September 28th, 2004 Winfried Hoffmann President of EPIA Member of the Board of the German Solar Industry Association (BSi) and Chairman of the PV Group Chairman of the Management Board of RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Alzenau, Germany 1.Benefit for the society 2.Competitiveness 3.Technology evolution 4.Support programs

2. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 2 EPIA strongly supports the Vision on PV by PV TRAC as part of an industrial policy for this important future industry development EPIA houses 95% of the companies devoted to manufacturing material, components and devices for PV solar electricity industry (among the 60 members there are e.g. Shell Solar, BP Solar, RWE Schott Solar, Isofoton, Q-Cells, Photowatt, Solar World) Introduction

3. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 3 One possibility to bridge the gap between long-term environmental needs (2030 and beyond), short-term political (4 years) and industrial (1 year down to Quarterlies) constraints: Demonstrate via a short-term industrial-political action a mid-term success for a viable industry giving socio- economical benefit to the whole society, and in the long-term a significant contribution to the global electricity need by PV solar electricity, thereby adding local security of supply Benefit for the Society

4. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 4 employment in high-tech large scale production export in whole value chain taxes contribution to poverty eradication in less developed countries Benefit for the society Socio-economical benefit

5. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 5 300 GW/Year @ 2030 30 % p.a. 25 % p.a. Benefit for the society PV market increase and necessary investments in production equipment

6. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 6 Benefit for the Society Impact of successful PV development on traditional material supply industry compared to nowadays annual worldwide production TodayBeyond 2030 PV only Glass 100 Mt 1 – 2 billion m² ≡ 7 – 15 Mt Silicon 26 kt 200 – 300 kt metal (Ag equiv.) 18 kt 10 – 15 kt

7. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 7 Consumer Off-Grid Industrial On-Grid Economically viable Dependant on market suport programs Off-Grid Residential Competitiveness Market Segments

8. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 8 proven in the three segments: –industrial off-grid –consumer –rural electrification coming soon in grid-connected systems –First, in local replacement of peak tariff electricity kWh in liberalized southern OECD countries (… 2010 … 2015) –Second, the same in more northern OECD countries (… 2020 … 2025) Competitiveness of PV Solar Electricity

9. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 9 Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH Photovoltaics Utility peak power Bulk power Competitiveness Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices

10. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 10 Competitiveness Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain

11. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 11 Spot market price PV power output Competitiveness Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany Source:

12. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 12 Is there a necessity for 2nd and 3rd generation technologies to replace c-Si wafer technology for module production cost below 1 €/W ? No, but utilize new features of thin film and new concept cells to serve additional customer needs! Technology Evolution

13. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 13 Technology evolution 1) No 1€/W limit for c-Si modules Module full production cost [€/W] MUSIC-FM APAS-RENA (1997) update (2002) c-Si ribbon (e.g. EFG) 0,70,6 multicryst./Cz-wafer0,9 / 1,10,8 / 1,0 thin-film (e.g. a-Si, CIS) 0,7…

14. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 14 Technology evolution EPIA Roadmap - c-Si technology 200020102020 feedstock252015 €/kg wafer300200100 µm cell14-1717-2019-22 % modulelong term stable, low cost/m² technology In the long run integrated manufacturing of thin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminate making is probably the most effective route.

15. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 15 a)low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) deposition area: 0,6 → 1,4 → 3 → 5 → 10 m² utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) creation of semitransparency by thin-layers b) low cost (price) per Wp ASI/µc-Si and II – VI compound (CIS, CTS) efficiency from 8 – 10 % today up to 10 – 15 % in 2010 and 14 – 18 % in 2030 Technology evolution 2) thin film technologies have

16. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 16 true colours with dyes for new applications low material cost concepts general improvement for all sunlight converting devices Technology evolution 3) dye cells / organic materials / high efficiency concepts

17. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 17 Technology evolution

18. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 18 Technology evolution Production of Solar Modules using different Technologies 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 c-Si thin film "New Concepts" 2002200520102015202020252030 MW GW 30%p.a. 25%p.a.

19. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 19 double digit and stable growth high volume → economy of scale competitive profit making to the industry sectors global industry PV solar electricity is a high potential candidate ! Need for local industry-political actions Support Programs General considerations for a future technology

20. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 20 Support programs A stable and growing R & D policy in the short, medium and long-term From a yearly R&D budget around 80 millions € (2003) to 250 millions € in the near future. Total PV R&D budget 100 % Industrial (e.g. 40%) Applied (e.g. 40%) Basic (e.g. 20%) Most (e.g. 70 %) 30 % 10 % Small (e.g. 20 %) Division keys for the 3 main technology issues could be 60 / 30 / 10 % respectively in Crystalline-Si / Thin Film and new technologies / Systems Technology and BOS. Little (e.g. 10 %)

21. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 21 Support Programs "Market-Pull" in Japan for PV solar electricity Comparison between produced and installed PV systems in Japan 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 199519961997199819992000200120022003 PV Systems in MWp 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Currency exchange in EURO/Yen Produced PV Systems Installed PV Systems Currency exchange Source: PV News & New Energy Foundation Japan; estimates from a Japanese producer in 2003

22. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 22 Support Programs Example 100,000 Rooftop Program / Feed-in Tariff (EEG) in Germany 1,000-Rooftop program (2.500 x 3kW) 100,000 Rooftop program KfW Feed-in Law 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 yearly installed MWp

23. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 23 Support Programs Comparison of the Future Market Development in Europe and Japan Yearly installations mainly Germany Cumulative installations mainly Germany Yearly installations Japan Cumulative installations Japan Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tarriff program (not contained in accumulated curve)

24. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 24 Support programs A local market is the necessary condition for a production industry to grow; however, it is not a sufficient condition that the local industry will serve this market

25. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 25 Worldwide free trade  not enhanced by WTO mechanisms Macroeconomic parameters as differences in interest rates and changing currency exchange ratio (US Dollar, Yen, Euro) prevent or accelerate import and exports between regions Need for boundary conditions (as discussed within the scientific economic field e.g. R. Mundell) between the regions; otherwise: return on investment calculations become obsolete and a whole industry, mainly in high investment production, may suffer. Support Programs Boundary Conditions for €-, $- and ¥- Currency Regions

26. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 26 EPIA Vision of the PV Platform Organisational Structure PolicyMarketingR&D New Application Non-EU Markets Innovation & Quality Assurance Society Issues International Networking Steering Committee Policy co-ordination Mirror group Secretariat

27. Vision for PV technology Brussels.ppt / 31.08.2004 / Rapp @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH 27 Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040 [ % ] 100 % RES 29.808 TWh Source: Advanced scenario according to EREC Total electricity consumption 36.346 TWh (from 15.578 TWh in 2001, IEA)