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Global Warming - Timescale

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Presentation on theme: "Global Warming - Timescale"— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Warming - Timescale
Big Bang - 10,000,000,000 years ago All matter as we know it formed (re-formed?) in an instant Solar system formed - 5,000,000,000 years ago From immense cloud of gas Earth’s crust formed - 4,600,000,000 years ago Carbon dated - 4,485 m.y. to 4,595 m.y. Earliest traces of life - 3,000,000,000 years ago Early trees - 400,000,000 years ago Humans - 2,500,000 years ago Agriculture (De-forestation) - 6,000 years ago Industry (Combustion) years ago

2 Global Warming - Timescale
Trees Earth for 400,000,000 years Big Bang Life Sun Humans Agriculture Industry Carbon Fixing for 3,000,000,000 years Combustion 200 years

3 Solar Radiation Energy in Earth’s Atmosphere Energy In Energy Out Sun
Core temperature 14,000,000oC Energy In (Stable) Energy Out (Variable) Sun Surface temperature 6,000oC Earth - 4,600,000,000 years old 99.85% of available energy 5,000,000,000 years old Unlikely to change significantly for next 1,500,000,000 years “Consuming” 500 million tons of Hydrogen per second (Enough “left” for another 1,500,000,000 years)

4 Greenhouse Effect - Global Thermostat
Natural “Greenhouse” Gases Atmosphere Water Vapour * Carbon Dioxide * Clouds * Ozone Methane * - 90% of natural effect Reflected long wave radiation Incoming short wave radiation Reflected long wave radiation CO2 concentration 280 ppm Greenhouse effect + 30oC “Greenhouse Gases” Little or no effect on incoming short wave radiation Stop outgoing long wave radiation

5 Global Warming - Tinkering with the controls!!
This natural thermostat may be very sensitive Atmosphere CO2 concentration 470 ppm (+70%) Greenhouse effect + 31.5oC to +38oC (+1.5oC to 8oC) Amount of energy in atmosphere increases as “Greenhouse Effect” increases

6 Global Warming - Predictions
Doubling of CO2 concentration - rise of 1.3oC Taking account of climatic feedback - rise of 1.5oC to 4.5oC Worst case scenario - 6.3oC to 8oC Recorded rise of 0.5oC during last 100 years Warmest years on record during last twelve years CO2 concentrations increased by 25% since start of industrial revolution, 13% during last 25 years Current gobal emission rate is 40,000 tonnes of CO2 per minute Emissions must be reduced by 60% to stabilise at current concentration (first interim report of IPCC (1990)) 2006 > 50,000

7 Global Warming - Historic Perspective
1-1.5oC increase Hotter than 6000 years ago 2-2.5oC increase Hotter than 125,000 years ago 3-4oC increase Hotter than 3-4,000,000 years ago 5oC increase Conditions not experienced for tens of millions of years Worst case 8oC increase

8 Global Warming - So What??
Rising sea levels at least 0.5 to 1.5m over next few decade Extreme weather conditions floods, avalanches, heat waves, droughts Loss of soil moisture Changes and reorganisation of ecosystems spread of tropical disease, cutaneous leishmaniasis, viral encephalitis, plague, malaria candidates for new endemic diseases (Public Health Laboratory Service report) asthma, algal blooms contaminating drinking water new or mutant strains of microbes, viruses and bacteria?? Shortages of fresh water increasing salinity, reduced stream flow Who knows what else?? "At one point Tim was regarded as a bit of a sandal-wearing hippy, a save-the-world guy” – Eddie Lynch, Coolair, 2007

9 Global Warming - Contributors
50% energy for buildings - i.e. 25% of whole problem 25% energy for transport 25% others (including deforestation) CH4 - 15% CFCs - 12% N2O - 9% Others - 13%

10 Energy consumption in buildings
Heating 50% Fabric losses Ventilation Cooling 20% Fabric gains Lighting 15% Electric lighting Hot Water 15% Mainly washing

11 Heating Ventilation (while in use) Fabric Losses (24 hours/day)

12 Fabric Losses - Standard Design
4.75oC Fabric Losses (24 hours/day) 21oC 21oC 12oC

13 Fabric Losses - Standard Design
Main elements Roof, area 225 m2,, U-Value 0.35 w/m2/oC Walls, area 250 m2, U-Value 0.55 w/m2/oC Floor, area 285 m2, U-Value w/m2/oC Glazing, area 223 m2, U-Value 3.6 w/m2/oC Mean winter conditions Internal Air 21oC External air 4.75oC (January mean) Ground 12oC Mean energy loss 422 kWh per day

14 Fabric Losses - Green Building
4.75oC 15oC Fabric Losses (24 hours/day) 21oC 21oC 12oC

15 Fabric Losses - Green Building
Main elements (Lower U-Values) Roof, area 225 m2,, U-Value 0.17 w/m2/oC Walls, area 250 m2, U-Value 0.36 w/m2/oC Floor, area 285 m2, U-Value 0.24 w/m2/oC Glazing, area 223 m2, U-Value 1.6 w/m2/oC Mean winter conditions Internal Air 21oC Atrium Air 15oC (Covered in courtyard) External air 4.75oC (January mean) Ground 12oC Mean energy loss 166 kWh per day (approximately 60% reduction)

16 Ventilation - Standard Design
4.75oC 21oC 21oC

17 Ventilation - Standard Design
Bathrooms, WCs, Halls & Passages 500 m3/hour, 24 hours/day Kitchens 1,728 m3/hour, 6 hours per day Living/Bedrooms 216 m3/hour, 10 hours per day Offices 420 m3/hour, 8 hours per day Restaurant/Retail 1,400 m3/hour, 9 hours per day Mean Energy Loss 238 kWh per day

18 Ventilation - Green Building
4.75oC 15oC 21oC 21oC

19 Ventilation - Green Building
Bathrooms, WCs, Halls & Passages 500 m3/hour, 24 hours/day Kitchens 1,728 m3/hour, 6 hours per day Living/Bedrooms 216 m3/hour, 10 hours per day Offices 420 m3/hour, 8 hours per day Restaurant/Retail 1,400 m3/hour, 9 hours per day Mean Energy Loss 150 kWh per day (Approximately 40% reduction)

20 Ventilation - Green Building
4.75oC 15oC Add Plants 21oC 21oC

21 Ventilation - Green Building
Mean Energy Loss 150 kWh per day (approximately 40% reduction) Add in photosynthetic effects 127 kWh per day (approximately 50% reduction)

22 Heat pump - Basic Principles
Refrigerant Condenses Power Out 26.3 kW CoP = Heat Out/Power In Power In 5.7 kW Gas High Pressure Liquid Electric Motor Pump Regulator Valve Night ESB, 2..9 p/kWh CoP = 4.6 Cost of heat = 0.63p 76% less than gas Gas, 2.3 p/kWh 90% Efficiency Cost of heat = p Gas Low Pressure Liquid Heat In 20.6 kW Refrigerant Evaporates

23 Deep Borehole Limestone - 300 m in depth Solar Energy
Ground Level Top of Bedrock Solar Energy Waste heat from buildings & drains Energy from granite Energy from core Background Temperature Centigrade Limestone m in depth

24 Heat Pump - Efficiency The efficiency of a heat pump is inversely proportional to the temperature “lift” - i.e. the difference between the temperature of the evaporator and the condensor The evaporator temperature is determined by the temperature of the bedrock - i.e 13.1oC The condensor temperature is “determined” by the temperature of the heating fluid. In a typical heating system this would be 80oC In the green building the radiating surface has been increased to the size of all the floors and ceilings so that the system can work satisfactorily with a low heating fluid temperature - 25oC to 35oC

25 Green Building - Heating System
Heat from rock to store at night 4.75oC 15oC 21oC 21oC Heat from store to building during day 12oC

26 Weather forecast It is important to keep the temperature in the reservoir as low as possible to, thus keeping the temperature “lift” as low as possible, thus keeping the CoP as high as possible. It is also important to avoid overheating the structure before warm “spells” and vice-versa. To do this we need access to the weather forecast to predict the mean heating load between now and pm (when the heat pump can be switched on next). It has been demonstrated that the energy savings that can be achieved in Dublin using this technology is of the order of 16%. This does not take account of the improved CoP.

27 Heating systems - Performances
Standard design 660 kWh per day Gas 2.3p per kWhour 90% efficiency 0.198 kg CO2/kWh Green building 293 kWh per day Electricity 2.9p per kWhour 460% efficiency 0.832 kg CO2/kWhour CO2 (64% saving) Energy (91% saving) Cost (89% saving)

28 Lighting System Standard building (15 w/m2) Green building (7 w/m2)
14,394 kWh/Annum Green building (7 w/m2) High efficiency fittings Reflective surfaces Light well 7,000 kWh/Annum Sun & Wind 9,000 kWh/Annum Batteries 140 kWh storage (1 full week)

29 Solar Powered Electricity Generators and Accumulators
Three 1,500 watt wind turbines Seventy six 53 watt solar modules 24 heavy duty batteries

30 Sun and Wind “Power” Availability Power (w/m2) Sun Wind Sun (h/d)
Wind (m/s mean) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 85 112 185 260 288 279 278 261 204 97 96 63 119 103 125 46 70 30 37 52 43 83 1.9 2.3 3.4 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.1 4.2 5 3.3 2.4 1.4 6.2 5.9 6.3 4.5 5.2 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.5

31 Sun and Wind Power - Electrical Output
PV Panels (890 kWh/m2/annum insolation) Measured efficiency Hazy Sunshine, Some Clouds to 13.9% Dull, total cloud cover -3 to 4% Bright Sunshine, Occasional cloud -16.5% Turbines (7,500 hours/annum usable wind) 5 to 17 m/s, 30 to 50% 3,500 hours wind in excess of 5.8 m/s Annual output 9,000 kWh

32 Hot water 70 litres per person per day
24 persons (average) 80% occupancy Delta t 45oC 34,361 kWh/Annum (Standard) Showers & Spray Head taps reduction of order of 50% 17,180 kWh/Annum Thermomax collector - 70% 55oC Area per tube m2 890 kWh/m2/Annum Insolation 62 kWh/Tube/Annum Number of tubes 160 (two banks of 80) Output 9,920 kWh Overall saving 58%

33 Green Building - Cooling (Night) “Canyon” effect
15oC 21oC 21oC

34 Green Building - Cooling (Day) “Stack” effect
15oC 21oC 21oC

35 Overall comparisons CO2 (73% saving) Energy (90% saving) Cost

36 Materials - Environmental costs
Re-cycled where possible Bricks, timber, aggregate (note transport costs) Natural fibres Carpets (note dies and binders) Sustainable “harvests” Selected timber from natural forest Family owned, eight generations Managed plantation Norwegian softwood Clear felling!! Biodiversity!! Biomass Medite ZF (one of few biomass powered plants in Ireland) Embedded energy

37 Green Buildings - the future
More buildings like this CHP systems 90% efficiency (currently about 20%) CO2 emissions down by 93% Biomass CHP systems CO2 neutral Sustainable Solar Energy Labour Ash recycled as fertiliser PV and Wind


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