1. Weekly Weather Briefing 09/08/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Matthew Duplantis Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

2. Overview Today and Friday Today and Friday Fire Danger continues across the four state area…especially East Texas Fire Danger continues across the four state area…especially East Texas Dense Smoke Advisory for East Texas through 10 AM Friday Dense Smoke Advisory for East Texas through 10 AM Friday Weekend Weekend Temperatures slowly increasing to low to mid 90s Temperatures slowly increasing to low to mid 90s No Chance for Precipitation No Chance for Precipitation Monday through Wednesday Monday through Wednesday Upper level trough over Eastern US moves east Upper level trough over Eastern US moves east Weak upper level ridge moves in Weak upper level ridge moves in Continued dry conditions Continued dry conditions National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

3. Currently H H L

4. Fire Danger through Friday

5. Relative Humidity Thursday Afternoon Lower 20’s for much of the area Lower 20’s for much of the area Several areas in east Texas will be in the lower to mid teens again! Several areas in east Texas will be in the lower to mid teens again!

6. Wind Speeds Thursday Afternoon 20 to 25 knot winds right off the surface will mix down during the afternoon. 20 to 25 knot winds right off the surface will mix down during the afternoon. 10 to 15 mph winds and gusty by the afternoon 10 to 15 mph winds and gusty by the afternoon

7. Relative Humidity Friday Afternoon Lower 20’s for much of the area again on Friday Lower 20’s for much of the area again on Friday Several areas in east Texas will be in the lower to mid teens again! Several areas in east Texas will be in the lower to mid teens again!

8. The Weekend The four state area remains in dry northwest flow… The four state area remains in dry northwest flow… Afternoon temperatures will rise to low to mid 90s. Afternoon temperatures will rise to low to mid 90s. H L L

9. Next Week The four state area remains in dry northwest flow… The four state area remains in dry northwest flow… Upper level high builds in from west. Temps will rise to mid 90s. Upper level high builds in from west. Temps will rise to mid 90s. H L L L

10. Tropics

11. Tropical Storm Nate

12. Alternate Scenario for Nate GFS Model has Nate in north-central gulf. GFS Model has Nate in north-central gulf. Would cause strong and dry northeast winds over much of the 4 state area. Would cause strong and dry northeast winds over much of the 4 state area. This is not the official forecast!

13. Tropical Storm Nate

14. Ongoing Drought Fire Danger Persists

15. Ongoing Drought ALL of East Texas D4 drought conditions. ALL of East Texas D4 drought conditions. No short term improvement in sight! No short term improvement in sight!

16. Ongoing Drought Much of Northwest and west- central Louisiana remains under D3-D4 drought conditions. Much of Northwest and west- central Louisiana remains under D3-D4 drought conditions. Rains with “Lee” helped northeast LA. Rains with “Lee” helped northeast LA.

17. Ongoing Drought Much of southwest Arkansas under D3-D4 drought conditions. Much of southwest Arkansas under D3-D4 drought conditions. D3 coverage in Arkansas increasing! D3 coverage in Arkansas increasing!

18. Two Week Outlook for Precip Fire Danger Persists Not looking good in the short to mid term! Not looking good in the short to mid term!

19. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday Sept 15, 2011 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana