1. Continuing Evolution of the CDIAC Fossil-Fuel-Derived Carbon Dioxide Emissions Time Series: Past, Present, and Future Bob Andres andresrj@ornl.gov Gregg Marland, Tom Boden 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 1/11

2. Basis of CDIAC FF CO 2 Time Series 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 2/11

3. Brief Outline 1. One degree mapping 2. Monthly emissions 3. Error analyses 4. Stable carbon isotope signatures 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 3/11

4. One Degree Mapping Vesta Animation, 2010 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 4/11

5. Monthly Emissions 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 5/11

6. Error Analyses- Estimates 1. Marland and Rotty (1984) 10.2% (dependent) to 6.1% (independent) 90% confidence interval based on evaluation of individual terms in calculation 2. Andres, Marland, Houghton (in prep.) 9.55 to 9.74 % 95% confidence interval (2 sigma) based on quantifying the qualitative national error classes of Andres et al. (1996) 3. Jonas, Hamal, Marland (various stages) and Andres and Marland (in prep., parallel effort) x % based primarily on changes in self-reported totals 4. Macknick (2009) -2.9 to 4.8% comparison of EIA, IEA, UN/CDIAC, and EDGAR data 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 6/11

7. Error Analyses- Why? 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 7/11

8. Error Analyses- Why? 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 8/11

9. Stable Carbon Isotope Signatures 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 9/11

10. Forthcoming 1. Lead author on RECCAP chapter on fossil fuel emissions 2. More publications with utilization of monthly data in new applications 3. FF inventory role in GHGIS? 4. Expanded and improved FFCO2 database interface links together existing data allows queries allows simple analyses 5. Other opportunities when contacted by those who realize our expertise in FFCO 2 emissions 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 10/11

11. Conclusions 1. CDIAC offers a basic data product for FF CO 2 emission estimates, as well as variants on that data. 2. This data is widely used and in many applications. 3. We look forward to your input to help guide our future activities. 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 11/11