1. LIMITS TO GROWTH THE POPULATION SECTOR

2. THE PREMISE What if we looked at the 5 characteristics of our world and simulate over time how they interact with one another: 1.Population 2.Cultivated land 3.Industrial Capital 4.Pollution 5.Nonrenewable Natural Resources What would happen?

4. EXPLANATION As population increases, more money is diverted to resource constraints. So less capital is available for industrial growth, food, health services, and consumption of goods. When these decline, population growth overshoots the earth’s carrying capacity and decreases.

5. HISTORY OF PUBLICATIONS 1972—Limits to Growth 1992—Beyond the Limits 2002—The 30 Year Update 2012---??

6. MAJOR INTERCONNECTIONS IN MODEL

8. The Population Sector

10. REASONS FOR EVENTUAL ACCEPTANCE OF THE MODEL AND ITS FINDINGS Accurate representation of historical behavior Data used in the model was peer reviewed for accuracy Simple, understandable equations thoroughly documented The 3 books describing the model were written in nontechnical language, accessible by the general public, and published around the world. Reputation of the sponsoring institution—MIT Challenges to the underlying assumptions of the model never changed its fundamental behaviors

11. TEN SIMULATIONS OF THE MODEL Each of the simulations addresses a concern of the previous simulation: 1.Standard run—business as usual 2.Doubling natural resources 3.Pollution control technologies 4.Enhancing agricultural yields 5.Land erosion protection 6.Resource efficiency technologies 7.Stabilized population 8.Stabilized industrial output per capita 9.Technologies to reduce pollution, conserve resources, and increase land yield 10. Same policies introduced 20 years earlier—true sustainability