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The following variables play a key role in the 3rd and 4th quarter hog outlook, and will largely determine whether a repeat of 1998 is in store. We will.

Published byVivien Rice Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "The following variables play a key role in the 3rd and 4th quarter hog outlook, and will largely determine whether a repeat of 1998 is in store. We will."— Presentation transcript:

1 The following variables play a key role in the 3rd and 4th quarter hog outlook, and will largely determine whether a repeat of 1998 is in store. We will keep these charts and tables updated as new information is released. Updated 1998 vs 2002 Hog Inventory1998 vs 2002 Hog Inventory Quarterly Lean Hog Contract Daily Closing PricesLean Hog Contract Daily Closing Prices Daily Monthly Pig CropMonthly Pig Crop Monthly Quarterly Pig CropQuarterly Pig Crop Quarterly Pigs Per Litter Pigs Per Litter Quarterly Cold Storage StocksCold Storage Stocks Monthly Canadian Feeder Pig ImportsCanadian Feeder Pig Imports Monthly Pork Trade Pork Trade Monthly USDA World Supply, Demand EstimatesUSDA World Supply, Demand Estimates Monthly

2 December Lean Hog Contract Daily Closing Prices

3 September Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report

4 June and July monthly pig crop estimates were revised downward in the September quarterly report. Monthly pig crop estimates during the June-August period are now 1.0% to 2.6% lower than last year. The next monthly Hogs and Pigs Reports is scheduled for release on October 25 and can be accessed at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/livestock/php-bb/2002/http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/livestock/php-bb/2002/ Monthly Pig Crop

5 This chart shows the quarterly pig crop in 1998, 2001, and 2002. The March-May 2002 pig crop was up 1.3% from last year. This chart shows that the crop of pigs that will come to market in the 4th quarter (March-May pig crop) will likely be smaller than the corresponding crop in 1998. However, Canada is exporting substantially more feeder pigs to the US than in 1998. Consequently, a smaller US pig crop could potentially hit the capacity constraint. (See following page) Quarterly Pig Crop

6 4 th Quarter Slaughter: Actual 1998 vs Projected 2002 This chart compares actual 4 th quarter 1998 weekly slaughter to projected 2002 weekly slaughter. The 2002 estimates are based on an estimated the market hog inventory by weight class and 2001weekly slaughter. Most of the weeks estimated slaughter is below 1998 levels and does not exceed the 2.2 million head level, suggesting the industry may survive the 4 th quarter without breeching packer capacity.

7 199719981999200020012002Mean Dec-Feb8.638.708.738.768.728.738.71 Mar-May8.678.758.808.868.898.818.79 Jun-Aug8.728.728.868.848.878.878.80 Sep-Nov8.688.668.788.858.788.75 Mean8.688.718.798.838.828.778.76 This table shows pigs per litter by quarter. Pigs per litter in the Jun-Aug quarter improved were identical to the same quarter last year, providing further evidence that productivity improvements in this variable may be leveling off. Pigs Per Litter by Quarter

8 This graph depicts the year to year percent change in cold storage stocks on the last day of the month. Stocks of all meats were relatively low throughout much of 2001. Cold Storage Stocks

9 Canadian Feeder Pig Imports This graph shows weekly Canadian feeder pig imports through weekending August 17. Canadian feeder pig imports are up 27% from this point in 2001.

10 Net Pork Exports As the industry approaches packer capacity in the 4th quarter, hog prices will be largely dependent on the packers ability to move their product. Export market will play a key role. February net pork exports dipped below year ago levels for the first time since 2000, and remained lower until July when exports surged, largely in anticipation of the safeguard quota scheduled for implementation on August 1.

11 19982002 Forecast% ChangeForecast% Change Jan4950+3.9%5175-1.2% Feb4950+3.9%5175-1.2% Mar4950+3.9%5175-1.2% Apr4950+3.9%52750.7% May4950+3.9%5325+1.6% June4950+3.9%5375+2.6% July4950 +3.9%5400+3.1% Aug5000+4.9%5400+3.1% The August 4th quarter production forecast remained the same as the July forecast, which was revised upward for the fourth consecutive month. The current forecast projects 4 th quarter production up 3.1% from 4 th quarter 2001. The next forecast is scheduled for release September 12 and can be accessed at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waobr/view.asp?f=wasde-bbhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waobr/view.asp?f=wasde-bb USDA 4th Quarter Pork Production Outlook

12 19982002 LowHighLowHigh January36403842 February36403842 March35373842 April35373537 May35373032 June35372830 July33352830 August30322830 The 4 th quarter price forecast was held constant in August for the 3 rd consecutive month. USDA’s June forecast is 25% lower than the forecast released in March. Analysts are much more cautious about 4 th quarter prices than at this point in the year during 1998. The next forecast is scheduled for release September 12 and can be accessed at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waobr/view.asp?f=wasde-bb http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waobr/view.asp?f=wasde-bb USDA 4th Quarter Price Outlook

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