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Mark W. Callahan, FCAS SVP, Underwriter XL Financial Solutions Capital Adequacy CAS Annual Meeting– November 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "Mark W. Callahan, FCAS SVP, Underwriter XL Financial Solutions Capital Adequacy CAS Annual Meeting– November 2002."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Mark W. Callahan, FCAS SVP, Underwriter XL Financial Solutions Capital Adequacy CAS Annual Meeting– November 2002

3 The material presented in no way represents the views or outlook of XL Capital or the panel. Please disregard any uninformed or irrational opinions of the presenter.

4 Issues Affecting Capital Adequacy Liabilities Investments Bad Management

5 Where is the Industry from an Investment Perspective?

6 Notable Credit Events Bond Defaults in 1st Half of 2002 –21 defaults > $1B –89 defaults = $76.7B –4 defaults = $4B within 12 months of IG Disclosure Source: Moody’s Clash Financial Guaranty Surety E&O

7 Source: Moody’s Higher Losses

8 Source: Moody’s Default Rates

9 Historical Recovery Rates Source: Moody’s

10 Source: contraryinvestor.com Corporate Debt Load

11 Industry Confidence in Reserves

12 Liabilities - Who Cheats? Source: Educational Testing Service Percentage of College Students Who Report Having Cheated 75% - 98%

13 Who’s Guilty 3,259 A.M. Best Rated U.S. P/C Companies 334 Rated B++ and B+ 518 Rated A- 107 Publicly Traded Companies Long Tail Lines or Latent Liabilities Source: A.M. Best, CNN Money

14 Coming to a Theater Near You... Asbestos 6000 Named Defendants Increased Claims Activity Reform $45-70B Unreserved (Not Anytime Soon) Source: Asbestos: A Moving Target (Bhagavatula, Moody, Russ); AM Bests

15 Inflation on Long Tail Lines Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Medical Litigation US Workers Compensation –$35B Gross Reserve (00 & 01) –$62B Gross Reserve (99 & Prior) $372B Total Industry Reserves

16 Actuarial Bias?

17 Public Perception

18 Surplus Source: Best’s Aggregates and Averages

19 Rating Migration in 2002 Source: Standard & Poor’s

20 Top 15 Reinsurance Groups Based on Net Reinsurance Premiums Written - 2002 Source: Standard & Poor’s Reinsurance Group Standard & Poor'sMoody's January 2002October 2002January 2002October 2002 Munich Re GroupAAA AaaAa1 Swiss Re GroupAAAAA+Aaa Berkshire Hathaway Re GroupAAA Aaa Employers Re GroupAAAAA+Aaa Hannover Re GroupAA A2 Lloyd'sAA Gerling Global Re GroupAA-BBBAa3 SCOR Re GroupAA-A+A1 Allianz Re GroupAA+AAAa3 AXA Re GroupAA Aa3 Converium Re GroupA+ A1 Transatlantic Re GroupAA Aa1 PartnerRe GroupAA Aa3 XL Re GroupAA Aa2 St. Paul Re GroupAA-A+Aa3


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