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OCTG Market Update January 2016
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Mission Be the industry leader in the supply of OCTG and customized services to the energy industry Vision Be the Premier partner delivering value through innovative supply chain management & customized solutions to optimize total cost of ownership Values Integrity Innovation Expertise Efficient Responsive
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US Average Rig Count Baker Hughes
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OCTG CONSUMPTION VS DEMAND
2.34 Million 8.0 292,670 Preston Pipe Report
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OCTG CONSUMPTION VS DEMAND
8.0 Preston Pipe Report
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OCTG MARKET PRICING TREND
$2192 $1930 OCTG PRICE PER TON Since January 2012 OCTG = % 2015 YTD = -30% Trend line average consists of Pipe Logix 7" 29# HCP LT&C & 9-5/8" 53.50# HCP LT&C, OCTG Situation Report 7" 29# S/P LT&C & 7-5/8' 29.70# S/P LT&C, and 9-5/8" 53.50# P-110 LT&C.
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Seamless Alloy Casing Price Trend with US Rig Count 2010 - 2015
OCTG PRICE PER TON RIG COUNT
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Seamless Alloy OCTG vs WTI Oil
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HRC = Preston Pipe Report
OCTG & Hot Rolled Coil $879 $2192 OCTG COIL $374 $1369 Trend line average consists of Pipe Logix 7" 29# HCP LT&C & 9-5/8" 53.50# HCP LT&C, OCTG Situation Report 7" 29# S/P LT&C & 7-5/8' 29.70# S/P LT&C, and 9-5/8" 53.50# P-110 LT&C. HRC = Preston Pipe Report
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OCTG & #1 Heavy Melt Scrap
$1369 $145 HMS #1 = AMM
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OCTG & Coke 195 175 $1369 Steelonthenet.com. fob export prices for blast furnace coke shipped from Poland and the Czech Republic in Euros/Metric tonne
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OCTG & Iron Ore $135 $1369 Iron Ore Fines Price in USD/MT. InfoMine.com.
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Annual Total Consumption
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Annual Consumption per Rig per Month
54% Efficiency Gain
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OCTG Supply and Consumption 2015 PROJECTION
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US TOTAL OCTG INVENTORY ANALYSIS
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US RIG COUNT: Story of 4 Cycles
-25% 2009 -45% 1986 +36% 1999 -58% 2015
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Story of 5 Cycles Numbers from January, not from peak.
1982 Numbers from January, not from peak. 1982 Biggest rig loss at 1727 rigs. 2015 Biggest % loss at 58%. -39% 1986 2015 2009 -25% -45% +36% -58% 1999
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US TOTAL OCTG SUPPLY 2009 vs 2015 Positive signs:
1) Total supply single month finally below 2009. 2) Preston estimates Dec Import at 51,000 tons.
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2009 vs 2015 Inventory Change Inventory drawn down much faster in 2009 than 2015. Still in excess of 8 months total supply. 1 Million tons excess inventory. Net effective new demand for 2016 is approx 2 million tons.
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OCTG Average 2015
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OCTG 2015
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TOTAL OCTG IMPORTS YTD (thru OCTOBER 2015)
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TOTAL OCTG IMPORTS YTD (thru OCTOBER 2015)
-65%
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Tonnage Delta 2015 vs 2014 (Thru October)
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