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OCTG Market Update January 2016

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Presentation on theme: "OCTG Market Update January 2016"— Presentation transcript:

1 OCTG Market Update January 2016

2 Mission Be the industry leader in the supply of OCTG and customized services to the energy industry Vision Be the Premier partner delivering value through innovative supply chain management & customized solutions to optimize total cost of ownership Values Integrity Innovation Expertise Efficient Responsive

3 US Average Rig Count Baker Hughes

4 OCTG CONSUMPTION VS DEMAND
2.34 Million 8.0 292,670 Preston Pipe Report

5 OCTG CONSUMPTION VS DEMAND
8.0 Preston Pipe Report

6 OCTG MARKET PRICING TREND
$2192 $1930 OCTG PRICE PER TON Since January 2012 OCTG = % 2015 YTD = -30% Trend line average consists of Pipe Logix 7" 29# HCP LT&C & 9-5/8" 53.50# HCP LT&C, OCTG Situation Report 7" 29# S/P LT&C & 7-5/8' 29.70# S/P LT&C, and 9-5/8" 53.50# P-110 LT&C.

7 Seamless Alloy Casing Price Trend with US Rig Count 2010 - 2015
OCTG PRICE PER TON RIG COUNT

8 Seamless Alloy OCTG vs WTI Oil

9 HRC = Preston Pipe Report
OCTG & Hot Rolled Coil $879 $2192 OCTG COIL $374 $1369 Trend line average consists of Pipe Logix 7" 29# HCP LT&C & 9-5/8" 53.50# HCP LT&C, OCTG Situation Report 7" 29# S/P LT&C & 7-5/8' 29.70# S/P LT&C, and 9-5/8" 53.50# P-110 LT&C. HRC = Preston Pipe Report

10 OCTG & #1 Heavy Melt Scrap
$1369 $145 HMS #1 = AMM

11 OCTG & Coke 195 175 $1369 Steelonthenet.com. fob export prices for blast furnace coke shipped from Poland and the Czech Republic in Euros/Metric tonne

12 OCTG & Iron Ore $135 $1369 Iron Ore Fines Price in USD/MT. InfoMine.com.

13 Annual Total Consumption

14 Annual Consumption per Rig per Month
54% Efficiency Gain

15 OCTG Supply and Consumption 2015 PROJECTION

16 US TOTAL OCTG INVENTORY ANALYSIS

17 US RIG COUNT: Story of 4 Cycles
-25% 2009 -45% 1986 +36% 1999 -58% 2015

18 Story of 5 Cycles Numbers from January, not from peak.
1982 Numbers from January, not from peak. 1982 Biggest rig loss at 1727 rigs. 2015 Biggest % loss at 58%. -39% 1986 2015 2009 -25% -45% +36% -58% 1999

19 US TOTAL OCTG SUPPLY 2009 vs 2015 Positive signs:
1) Total supply single month finally below 2009. 2) Preston estimates Dec Import at 51,000 tons.

20 2009 vs 2015 Inventory Change Inventory drawn down much faster in 2009 than 2015. Still in excess of 8 months total supply. 1 Million tons excess inventory. Net effective new demand for 2016 is approx 2 million tons.

21 OCTG Average 2015

22 OCTG 2015

23 TOTAL OCTG IMPORTS YTD (thru OCTOBER 2015)

24 TOTAL OCTG IMPORTS YTD (thru OCTOBER 2015)
-65%

25 Tonnage Delta 2015 vs 2014 (Thru October)


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