1. CILTNA 11 th Annual Transportation Situation & Outlook Conference, April 30 2012, Ottawa, Canada North American Gateways and Corridors: Emerging Trends in Inland Freight Distribution Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

2. Why Hinterland Transportation Matters? FORELAND 90% 10% Distance 20% 80% HINTERLAND Cost Port

3. Global Trends: The Proverbial Elephant in the Living (Board) Room

4. The Three Elephants… Energy and Resources Debt and sovereign defaults Aging & HealthCare

5. Multiplying Effects of Derived Demand on Container Transport Peaking? Container Throughput (520.4 Millions TEU) GDP in current USD ($63.4 Trillion) Exports in current USD ($15.2 Trillion) World Population (6.84 Billions)

6. China: The Largest Bubble in History? Rebalancing in demand

7. Commodities and the Canadian Economy: A Double-Edged Sword

8. Monthly Softwood Lumber Shipments to China, 2007-2011

9. The Third Oil Shock Unfolding First Oil Shock Second Oil Shock Third Oil Shock Rebalancing in input costs

10. The North American East and West Coasts Dominate… Millions

11. … but Growth has Shifted to South America / The Caribbean Million TEUs

12. An Expected Shift in Containerization Growth Factors Derived Economic and income growth Globalization (outsourcing) Fragmentation of production and consumption Substitution Functional and geographical diffusion New niches (commodities and cold chain) Capture of bulk and break-bulk markets Incidental Trade imbalances Repositioning of empty containers Induced Transshipment (hub, relay and interlining)

13. Inland Ports in a Paradigm

14. Inland Ports: Pick Your Challenge Site and situation Massification Reconciling flows Trade and transactional facilitation

16. The Massification of Transportation in Inland Systems PortPortPortPort ITIT ITIT ITIT ITIT Inland Port Port-Centric Inland Load Center Network Formation Logistics Support Direct truck End haul Rail / Barge ITIT Intermodal Industrial Park Inland Terminal PortPort Corridor

17. The Inland Logistics Funnel: The “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution CapacityFunnelFrequencyFunnel Capacity Gap Economies of scale Frequency Gap FORELAND HINTERLAND Main Shipping Lane Inland Terminal INTERMEDIATE HUB GATEWAY

18. Transshipment in the Caribbean: From A Triangle to a Funnel 63.1% 4.9% 16.4% 15.6% Economies of scale involve less tolerance for deviation

19. Asymmetries between Import and Export-Based Containerized Logistics Many Customers Function of population density. Geographical spread. Incites transloading. High priority (value, timeliness). Few Suppliers Function of resource density. Geographical concentration. Lower priority. Depends on repositioning opportunities. Gateway Inland Terminal DistributionCenter Customer Supplier Repositioning Import-Based Export-Based

20. Container Traffic, Port of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, 2008-2011 (import / export ratio) 0.74 0.92 0.76 0.81 0.25 0.33 0.43

21. Trade and Transactional Facilitation: Functional Pairing of Inland Ports Hinterland Foreland Gateway Corridor Functional Pairing Inland Port

22. Conclusion: Inland Ports as Maturing Logistical Platforms The last mile remains salient (Gateway gap + inland massification) Inland ports are hinterland dependent (Significant regional variations in logistics) Longitudinal fixation, latitudinal future?