1. Research and Discover Land-use History Brazil Heather Bain, College of the Holy Cross Dr. George Hurtt, UNH

2. Motivation Ecosystem Modeling Current state of ecosystem Direct Measurement Land-use history Carbon projections Future dynamics

3. 1700 1850 1920 1990 Land Use Total Carbon Land-use Reconstruction In Action Hurtt et al. 2002 N C P S

4. The Math of a Land-use History Reconstruction CPNSCPNS CPNSCPNS a 11 a 12 a 13 a 14 a 21 a 22 a 23 a 24 a 31 a 32 a 33 a 34 a 41 a 42 a 43 a 44 l (x,y,t+1) = A (x,y,t) l (x,y,t) t+1t This makes for 462x300x12 = 1,663,200 unknown parameters!!! longitude latitude time

5. Assumptions & Constraints Conjecture with reason! Minimum flows assumption Release of cropland Be consistent with as many sources of data as possible

6. Constraints 1. Land cover vegetation from NOAA-AVHRR (1992) 2. County land-use totals from census data from IBGE (1992) 3. National land-use totals from census data from FAO (1961-1992) 4. Population estimates from IBGE (1700-1961) 5. *Deforestation rates from INPE (1985-1992) 6. *Spatial deforestation analysis from Skole et al. (1986, 1992) 7. **Secondary estimates

7. Goal: create a spatial map of land use Tools: AVHRR vegetation classification IBGE census data (county level) Method: develop a mathematical translation, following Hurtt et al. 2001 1.&2. Land Use Mapping Project

8. Math of LUMP l(x,y) = B r(x,y) 17x1 CPNWCPNW 1x4 b 11 b 12 b 13 … b 21 b 22 b 23 … b 31 b 32 b 33 … b 41 b 42 b 43 … 4x17 r 1 r 2 r 3 * r 17 fractional information for cell = transition matrix * vegetation matrix

9. 3.&4. FAO and IBGE population Regional information on land use through time Census data on land use from FAO (1961- 1992) Population estimates from IBGE (1700- 1961)

10. Land-Use History in Brazil pasture total natural crop Fao-lumpIBGE

11. A land-use movie

12. 5.&.6. INPE and Skole Verify annual gross deforestation flows (1986-1992) Regional totals Spatial pattern

13. Regional Deforestation Comparison

14. Amazonia forest cover Distribution of forest cover fraction values Map based on 0.5 o grid-interpolated forest cover data from Skole et al. (1993) 19921986

15. Forest Cover Difference Skole et al. (1993)  Distribution of the difference of forest cover b between 1992 and 1986

16. Spatial Distribution of Deforestation Reasonable preliminary results! Symmetric distribution Slight bias

17. Summary It is possible to produce a land-use history reconstruction consistent with many sources of data These reconstructions can include estimates of all underlying land-use transition rates Preliminary version is promising

18. Future Refine land-use history reconstruction with additional sources of data Combine with an ecosystem model to produce estimates of past and current states of ecosystems and associated carbon fluxes Assess the sensitivity of the ecosystem to alternative reconstructions Produce future projections of ecosystems and carbon fluxes

19. Acknowledgements NASA-UNH Research and Discover program and initiators. Dr. George Hurtt for his patience and dedication to his work and the interns. Manoel Cardoso for his various contributions. Staff at EOS department, UNH. Dr. Edward Soares for his constant support and encouragement.