1. Slide 1 Macroeconomics LECTURE SLIDES SET 3 Professor Antonio Ciccone Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

2. Slide 2 II. ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH ENDOGENOUS SAVINGS Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

3. Slide 3 1. Household savings behavior Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

4. Slide 4 1. “ Keynesian theory ” of savings and consumption So far we assumed a “ Keynesian ” savings function where s is the marginal propensity to save. 1. The Keynesian consumption (savings) function Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

5. Slide 5 Because of the BUDGET CONSTRAINT this implies the “ Keynesian ” consumption function where c is the marginal propensity to consume. Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

6. Slide 6 2. Limitations CONCEPTUAL The consumption behavior is assumed to be “ mechanic ” and “ short- sighted ” : –Are households really only looking at CURRENT income when deciding consumption? Not really. Many households borrow from banks in order to be able to consume more today because they know they will be able to pay the money back in the future. –If people save, presumably they are doing this for future consumption. Hence, savings is a FORWARD-LOOKING decision and must take into account what happens in the future. Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

7. Slide 7 Assuming savings as a function of current income therefore appears to contradict the use that households make of their savings. EMPIRICAL “ Consumption smoothing: ” – Empirically, we observe that households smooth consumption. To put it differently, the income of households is often more volatile than their consumption. This suggests that households look forward and try to stabilize consumption (their standard of living) as much as they can. Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

8. Slide 8 time HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF FARMER FIGURE 1: CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING: A VOLATILE INCOME PATH Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

9. Slide 9 time HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF FARMER HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF FARMER (“KEYNESIAN” theory) FIGURE 2: INCOME AND "KEYNESIAN CONSUMPTION" Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

10. Slide 10 time HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF FARMER HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF FARMER (EMPIRICAL OBSERVATION) FIGURE 3: CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

11. Slide 11 time HOUSEHOLD INCOME CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING SAVE FOR “RAINY DAYS” DIS-SAVE TO MAINTAIN CONSUMPTION LEVELS FIGURE 4: SAVINGS AND DIS-SAVINGS IN CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING MODELS Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

12. Slide 12 INTERESTINGLY: The Keynesian theory of consumption seems to do better at the aggregate level than at the level of individual households. For example: –Keynesian theory does well in describing relationship between consumption and income of a country at different in different years –Theory does also well in describing relationship between consumption and income across different countries Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

13. Slide 13 INCOME CONSUMPTION A PUZZLE? AGGREGATE LEVEL INDIVIDUAL HOUSE- HOLD LEVEL Germany 1950 Or Country 1 Germany 1960 Or Country 2 Germany 1980 Or Country 3 Mr A Ms B Mr C Ms D Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

14. Slide 14 2. The permanent income theory of consumption and savings 1. Basic idea and two-period model Households make consumption decisions: LOOKING FORWARD to future USING SAVINGS AND LOANS from BANKS to maintain their living standards STABLE in time to the extent possible Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

15. Slide 15 SIMPLEST POSSIBLE formal model (2 PERIODS) INGREDIENTS: – Household lives 2 periods and tries to maximize INTERTEMPORAL utility –Understands that will earn LABOR income Lw[0] in period 0 and Lw[1] in period 1 –Starts with 0 WEALTH –Can save and borrow from bank at interest rate r Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

16. Slide 16 MATHEMATICAL MAXIMIZATION PROBLEM: by choosing C 0 and C 1 subject to S=Lw 0 -C 0 C 1 =Lw 1 +(1+r)S DISCOUNT APPLIED TO FUTURE UTILITY NOTE that S can be NEGATIVE (which means the household is BORROWING or DISSAVING) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

17. Slide 17 MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION Maximize INTERTEMPORAL UTILITY by choosing C subject to INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT C 1 =Lw 1 +(1+r)S= Lw 1 +(1+r)(Lw 0 -C 0 ) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

18. Slide 18 INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT can also be written: IMPORTANT TERMINOLOGY: PERMANENT INCOME (PI) PRICE OF FUTURE CONSUMPTION RELATIVE TO CURRENT CONSUMPTION Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

19. Slide 19 C[0] C[1] Lw[0] Lw[1] GRAPHICALLY: INCOME LEVELS AND CONSUMTION Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

20. Slide 20 C[0] C[1] Lw[0] Lw[1] 1+r THE INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

21. Slide 21 C[0] C[1] Lw[0] Lw[1] 1+r INTERTEMPORAL UTILITY MAXIMIZATION Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

22. Slide 22 C[0] C[1] Lw[0] Lw[1] 1+r C[0] C[1] Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

23. Slide 23 C[0] C[1] Lw[0] Lw[1] 1+r C[0] C[1] BORROWING FOR CURRENT CONSUMPTION BORROW REPAY Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

24. Slide 24 2. Closed form solution in a simple case SUPPOSE THAT INTEREST RATE is ZERO: r = 0 FUTURE UTILITY DISCOUNT is ZERO: MAXIMIZATION PROBLEM BECOMES: with respect to C subject to Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

25. Slide 25 FIRST ORDER MAXIMIZATION CONDITIONS: First-order conditions can be obtained from with respect to C 0 where we have substituted the budget constraint. TAKE DERIVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO C[1] AND SET EQUAL ZERO: OR C1C1 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

26. Slide 26 EQUALIZE MARGINAL UTILITY AT DIFFERENT POINTS IN TIME THIS IMPLIES  “ PERFECT CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING ” Using the INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT yields consumption as a function of PERMANENT INCOME Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

27. Slide 27 Lw[0] C[0] 0.5*Lw[1] 0.5*Lw[0]+0.5*Lw[1] "CONSUMPTION FUNCTION" Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

28. Slide 28 Lw[0] C[0] 0.5*Lw[1] 0.5*Lw[0]+0.5*Lw[1] “TEMPORARY” INCREASE IN INCOME INCREASE In first-period income THE EFFECT OF AN INCREASE IN INITIAL-PERIOD INCOME ON C[0] Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

29. Slide 29 Lw[0] C[0] 0.5*Lw[0]+0.5*Lw[1] “PERMANENT” INCREASE IN INCOME INCREASE Lw[0] INCREASE Lw[1] THE EFFECT OF AN INCREASE IN INITIAL AND FUTURE INCOME Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

30. Slide 30 DISCOUNTING OF FUTURE UTILITY, AND INTEREST MAXIMIZATION WITH DISCOUNTING&INTEREST with respect to C subject to INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

31. Slide 31 FIRST-ORDER CONDITIONS “ EFFECTIVE TIME DISCOUNTING ”  CONSTANT CONSUMPTION DISCOUNTING OF FUTURE UTILITY AND POSTITIVE INTEREST RATE JUST OFFSET Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

32. Slide 32 UPWARD SLOPING CONSUMPTION PATHS IN TIME:  INCREASING CONSUMPTION OVER TIME POSITIVE INTEREST MORE THAN OFFSETS UTILITY DISCOUNTING DOWNWARD SLOPING CONSUMPTION PATHS IN TIME:  DECREASING CONSUMPTION OVER TIME UTILITY DISCOUNTING MORE THAN OFFSETS POSITIVE INTEREST (1-β)(1+r) > 1 (1-β)(1+r) < 1 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

33. Slide 33 AN EXAMPLE Take the following utility function: FIRST-ORDER CONDITION BECOMES or Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

34. Slide 34 3. The case of 3 and more periods -- Timing -- Intertemporal budget constraint -- Optimality conditions -- Time consistency Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

35. Slide 35 PRESENT-VALUE INCOME AND CONSUMPTION - PERMANENT INCOME - PRESENT VALUE CONSUMPTION t=0t=1 Q[0]w[0]Lw[1]Lw[2]L C[0]C[1]C[2] t=2 YOU ARE HERE interest discounting interest discounting interest discounting Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

36. Slide 36 INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

37. Slide 37 BUDGET CONTRAINT AND TIME EVOLUTION OF WEALTH t=0t=1t=2 Q[0]w[0]Lw[1]Lw[2]L C[0]C[1] C[2] Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

38. Slide 38 INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

39. Slide 39 MAXIMIZE BETWEEN ADJACENT PERIODS OPTIMAL SOLUTION OF CONSUMPTION PROBLEM plus BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

40. Slide 40 Shortest way from A to B? A B Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

41. Slide 41 Shortest way from A to B A B Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

42. Slide 42 Must be the shortest way between ANY two points A B C D Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

43. Slide 43 A B C D Must be the shortest way between ANY two points Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

44. Slide 44 INFINITE HORIZON =TIME ZERO (PRESENT) VALUE OF 1 EURO PAID AT (end of) PERIOD t Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

45. Slide 45 INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT NO-PONZI-GAME condition Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

46. Slide 46 TIME T  0 WHAT IF: NO PONZI GAME CONDITION VIOLATED? Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

47. Slide 47 INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY NO-PONZI-GAME condition Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

48. Slide 48 TIME T  0 WHAT IF: Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

49. Slide 49 CAN INCREASE TIME-0 CONSUMPTION  CONSUMPTION PLAN NOT OPTIMAL! NECESSARY FOR OPTIMALITY: Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

50. Slide 50 TIME CONSISTENCY of HOUSOLD CONSUMPTION PLANS Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

51. Slide 51 TIME 0 CONSUMPTION PLANS t=0t=1 Q[0]w[0]Lw[1]Lw[2]L C[0]C[1]C[2] t=2 YOU ARE HERE interest discounting interest discounting interest discounting t=0t=1 Q[0] Q(1) w[1]Lw[2]L C[1]C[2] t=2 interest discounting interest discounting YOU ARE HERE TIME 1 CONSUMPTION PLANS (NO NEW INFO) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

52. Slide 52 ***** TIME CONSISTENCY ***** t=0t=1 Q[0]w[0]Lw[1]Lw[2]L C[0]C[1]C[2] t=2 YOU ARE HERE interest discounting interest discounting interest discounting t=0t=1 Q(1) w[1]Lw[2]L C[1]C[2] t=2 interest discounting interest discounting YOU ARE HERE TIME 1 CONSUMPTION PLANS (NO NEW INFO) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

53. Slide 53 3. Optimal consumption and savings in continuous time 1. Infinite horizon subject to = TIME ZERO (PRESENT) VALUE OF 1 EURO PAID AT TIME t Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

54. Slide 54 2. Intertemporal budget constraint Wealth in discrete time Wealth in continuous time Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

55. Slide 55 Intertemporal budget constraint in continuous time satisfied with equality if Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

56. Slide 56 3. Interpretation of  and r r is the interest rate that is received between two very close periods in time is the discount rate applied PER UNIT OF TIME between two very close periods in time TO SEE THAT is the discount rate applied PER UNIT OF TIME between two very close periods in time 1)Note that the utility discount between period 0 and t is: Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

57. Slide 57 2) Hence the utility discount per unit of time is: 3) What is the limit as t  0? Hopital ’ s rule yields Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

58. Slide 58 4. First-order condition where: is INTERTEMPORAL RATE OF TIME PREFERENCE and measures how IMPATIENT people are is the INTERTEMPORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION and measures how much future consumption increases when the interest rate goes up (how much people “ respond to interest rates ” ) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

59. Slide 59 TIME OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION PATH r =  C(t) C(0) CONSTANT CONSUMPTION IN TIME Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

60. Slide 60 TIME OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION PATH r >  C(t) C(0) INCREASING CONSUMPTION IN TIME Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

61. Slide 61 TIME OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION PATH r <  C(t) C(0) DEACREASING CONSUMPTION IN TIME Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

62. Slide 62 5. Closed form solution in special case ASSUME (consumers have an INFINITE HORIZON) SOLUTION CHARACERIZED BY  PEOPLE WANT CONSTANT CONSUMPTION OVER TIME ( “ PERFECT CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING ” CASE) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

63. Slide 63 THE INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT without initial wealth HENCE Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

64. Slide 64 6. Deriving the continuous time first-order condition MAXIMIZATION BETWEEN ANY TWO PERIODS SEPARATED BY TIME x subject to = TOTAL SPENDING IN TWO PERIODS Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

65. Slide 65 Take the following utility function: with Take the following utility function: with Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

66. Slide 66 FIRST ORDER CONDITIONS FOR THE TWO PERIODS IN TIME making use of the utility function Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

67. Slide 67 REWRITING THIS CONDITIONS YIELDS subtracting 1 from both sides Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

68. Slide 68 DIVIDE BY x (the TIME BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS) to get CONSUMPTION GROWTH PER UNIT OF TIME What happens when the two periods get closer and closer (x  0)? Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

69. Slide 69 Apply Hopital ’ s rule Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

70. Slide 70 HENCE as two periods become VERY CLOSE WHICH IS WHAT WE WANTED TO SHOW Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

71. Slide 71 SUMMARIZING QUESTION: What characterizes the optimal consumption PATH that solves subject to Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

72. Slide 72 ANSWER: and or Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

73. Slide 73 2. The Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

74. Slide 74 We will now integrate a household that chooses consumption optimally over an infinite horizon in the Solow model. The results is often refereed to as the Cass- Koopmans model. The Cass-Koopmans model is exactly like the SOLOW MODEL only that the household does NOT behave mechanically but instead chooses consumption and savings to maximize: subject to where 1. Equilibrium growth with infinite-horizon households Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

75. Slide 75 In order to NOT complicate things too much we will simplify the model by assuming: 1.no technological changes (i.e. a=0 in Solow model) 2.no population growth (i.e. n=0 in Solow model) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

76. Slide 76 WHAT WE CAN KEEP FROM THE SOLOW MODEL CONSTANT RETURNS PRODUCTION FUNCTION E(1) E(2) CAPITAL ACCUMULATION EQUATION E(3) PRODUCTION FUNCTION 1. Technology and the capital market Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

77. Slide 77 CAPITAL MARKET EQUILIBRIUM E(4) E(5) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

78. Slide 78 WHAT WE CANNOT KEEP IS INSTEAD: E(6) E(7) INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY where c[t] is CONSUMPTION per PERSON 2. Household behaviour Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

79. Slide 79 WE WILL TRY TO CHARACTERIZE THE EQUILIBRIUM OF THIS ECONOMY IN TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION OF c and k. The goal is to reduce the equations above to a TWO- DIMENSIONAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION SYSTEM WHERE CHANGE in CONSUMPTION c=FUNCTION OF k and c CHANGE IN CAPITAL k=FUNCTION OF k and c (E6) and (E5) imply E(8) 3. Dynamic equilibrium system Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

80. Slide 80 (E3) and (E4) imply recall that there is NO population growth and therefore E(9) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

81. Slide 81 SO WE HAVE OUR TWO EQUATIONS: Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

82. Slide 82 THESE CAN BE BEST ANALYZED IN A PHASE DIAGRAM Start with capital accumulation equation FIRST: Find ISOCLINE, which are the (c, k) combinations such that INTERPRETATION: capital per worker does NOT grow IF the economy consumes all of the output net of capital depreciation. In this case, investment is just enough to cover the depreciation of capital. 2. Equilibrium growth and optimality Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

83. Slide 83 k c k-ISOCLINE: CAPITAL DOES NOT GROW k-ISOCLINE Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

84. Slide 84 k c k-ISOCLINE: CAPITAL DOES NOT GROW CHANGES IN k in PHASE DIAGRAM Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

85. Slide 85 Continue with the optimal consumption equation FIRST: Find ISOCLINE, which are the (c, k) combinations such that Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

86. Slide 86 k c c-ISOCLINE: CONSUMPTION DOES NOT GROW k* is the k such that f’(k)=  c-ISOCLINE 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

87. Slide 87 k c c-ISOCLINE: CONSUMPTION DOES NOT GROW k* is the k such that f’(k)=  CHANGES IN c in PHASE DIAGRAM 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

88. Slide 88 k c c-ISOCLINE: CONSUMPTION DOES NOT GROW k* is the k such that f’(k)=  CHANGES IN c in PHASE DIAGRAM 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

89. Slide 89 k c k-ISOCLINE: CAPITAL DOES NOT GROW c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* PUTTING CHANGES in k and c TOGETHER 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

90. Slide 90 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

91. Slide 91 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

92. Slide 92 All these paths satisfy by construction: -period-by-period consumer maximization -capital market equilibrium They DO NOT necessarily satisfy constraints like: -non-negative capital stock k[t]>=0 -intertemporal budget constraint with EQUALITY Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

93. Slide 93 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) PATHS that violate NON-NEGATIVE capital stock (consume too much in beginning) 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

94. Slide 94 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) PATHS THAT DO NOT SATISFY BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY (consume too little in beginning) 0 k_bar Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

95. Slide 95 (1) Wealth=Capital (2) Intertemporal budget constraint with equality Q(t)=K(t) or q(t)=k(t) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

96. Slide 96 k c f(k)-  k c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k*k(0) PATHS THAT DO NOT SATISFY BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY f’(k)-  =r=0 NEGATIVE INTEREST RATEPOSITIVE INTEREST k_bar Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

97. Slide 97 time t NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

98. Slide 98 k c c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) PATHS THAT DO NO SATISFY BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY 0 k_bar YOU ARE NOT SPENDING ALL YOUR PERMANENT INCOME!!!!!!! Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

99. Slide 99 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) EQUILIBRIUM ( “ SADDLE ” ) PATH 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

100. Slide 100 SADDLE PATH SATISFIES INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT WITH EQUALITY Capital market equilibrium: Income per worker=Labor income + Capital income: Hence: Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

101. Slide 101 Moreover: As: given that interest rates>0 for k<=k* Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

102. Slide 102 OPTIMALITY -- What would social planner do? - Social planner: dictator who decides allocation according to HH welfare subject to physical contraints Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

103. Slide 103 MRS=MRT The GLOBALLY OPTIMAL PATH MUST SATISFY If not satisfied, the planner could increase utility between adjacent periods by either: -- consuming one unit less today, investing that unit, and consuming the resulting additional output tomorrow -- consuming one unit more today, invest one unit less today, and reducing future consumption accordingly (A) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

104. Slide 104 RESOURCE CONSTRAINT The GLOBALLY OPTIMAL PATH MUST SATISFY To see why, suppose first that -- in this case the planner must be throwing away goods (investment goods) because the increase in the number of machines is LESS THAN the machines built less depreciation : BUT THROWING AWAY GOODS CANNO BE OPTIMAL!! Now suppose instead -- now the planner is a REAL MAGICIAN!! as the number of machines in the economy goes up by which is GREATER THAN machines built less depreciation (B) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

105. Slide 105 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* 0 ALL THE PATHS THAT SATISFY CONDITIONS (A) and (B) Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

106. Slide 106 NOW NOTE: -- Starting the allocation by jumping ABOVE the SADDLE PATH CANNOT BE OPTIMAL because you end up violating the non-negativity constraint for capital -- Starting the allocation by jumping BELOW the SADDLE PATH CANNOT BE OPTIMAL either. The proof is to construct another path—that is clearly not optimal either— but that still is BETTER THAN the paths starting out below the saddle path. How to do that is explained on the next slides. Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

107. Slide 107 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) We are trying to show that the RED PATH CANNOT BE GLOBALLY OPTIMAL 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

108. Slide 108 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) CONSIDER THE ALTERNATIVE GREEN PATH, which: -- concides with RED PATH until k* is reached and then JUMPS UP to the green dot where is stay forever 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

109. Slide 109 -- The GREEN PATH CANNOT POSSIBLY BE OPTIMAL because consumption JUMPS and therefore the green path violates CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, which was CONDITION A above. -- Still, the GREEN PATH is certaintly better than the RED PATH because it has the same consumption until k* and MORE consumption from there onwards!!! -- For all RED PATHS (that is, all paths starting below the saddle path), there is a GREEN PATH. So no paths starting below the saddle path can be optimal (despite the fact that it satisfies conditions A and B). Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

110. Slide 110 HENCE: The only path starting at k[0] that : -- satisfies CONDITIONS A and B, which are necessary for optimality -- satisfies non-negativity of capital -- satisfies that there is NO OTHER PATH we can construct that is better  IS THE SADDLE PATH  EQUILIBRIUM AND OPTIMAL ALLOCATIONS ARE EQUAL Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

111. Slide 111 k c k-ISOCLINE: NO CAPITAL GROWTH c-ISOCLINE: NO CONSUMPTION GROWTH k* k(0) OPTIMAL AND EQUILIBRIUM ALLOCATION 0 Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

112. Slide 112 In the steady state: Savings rate is constant, just like in the Solow model But it is endogenous in the sense of depending on “fundamentals” like time preference etc. In the simplest case: S=I=  K Combined with: r+  =MPK and r=  Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

113. Slide 113 In the steady state with technological change: With technological change and population growth: S=I=(  +a)K Growth of consumption=  (r-  )  What is the relationship between the SS savings rate S/Y and the rate of technological change a ? Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3

114. Slide 114 Comparative statics Greater impatience (discount rate)? (effects on income, capital, wages, interest rates) Capital income taxation? A temporary cut of lump-sum taxes? Macroeconomics SLIDE SET 3