1. Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years J.M. Fontenla LASP-University of Colorado Collaboration with: I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO) E. Quemerais (CNRS) C. Lindsey (NWRA)

2. Solar cycle situation A B C SC23SC24 P O N

3. AR grew slowly on the near-side, but grew rapidly on the far-side Produced advanced brightening. Helioseismic data had located this feature. AR on far-side AR on near-side Lyα backscattering had shown this feature brightness on the far-side. 2007

4. 2008 Features Synoptic Mask Obsolescence mask indicates number of days since each pixel was observed by PSPT. 0 or -1 indicates observation on the same day. Features mask show what is (or was) on the solar surface. Three identified regions correspond to active regions that were reported by NOAA with various numbers. The regions near the poles are never well observed. Carrington Longitude Carrington Latitude

5. 5 2009 (1) XUV/EUV Irradiance Synthesis Computed spectra at 1 nm resolution, daily since 2005/1/1 (preliminary). The resolution was degraded after the full resolution radiance spectrum was computed for each feature and disk position.

6. 6 2009 (2) A More Difficult Case Early weak activity features in Sep 2009. Did not have a steady trend and did not last long. Their forecast is hard but then produce only a very small SSI variation. Forecasted & observed Lyα

7. SRPM at 1 nm resolution black-SRPM at 1A green-SOLSTICE violet-SDO/EVE blue-Thuiller et all. 2010 (1) Comparison of EUV spectra with SDO/EVE and SOLSTICE observations

8. 2010 (2) Longer picture on Lyα spectral irradiance

9. 2011 (1) SC23 CHAMP neutral density nonlinear fit comparison against SRPM Lyα A very simple, but non-linear, scaling matches well the Lyα solar cycle and rotational modulation trends to the neutral density derived by CHAMP at some locations. Champ density from J.M. Forbes 2009 data. At 400 km, 11:30 to12:30 local time, -5 to 5 deg center latitude. Scaled value=f(neutral.density)

10. 2011 (2) Forecast case C An active region was tiny on the disk in the previous rotation, grew a bit before leaving the disk, and much more on the back side. Then stabilized before coming back again to the disk as a very large and bright active region. It was at a location where active regions have emerged and decayed before. Was also observed by GONG since 2011/9/5 just after leaving the solar disk. Below are just preliminary results by only including the change far-side region observed by GONG ongoing work will include evolution of other nearby regions. Data gap In SOLSTICE

11. 2011 (3) Solar physical models

12. 2012 (1) nowcast W m -2 nm -1

13. 2012 (2) nowcast

14. Forecast case studies A B C SC23SC24 P O N Case study N was published in 2009, case O was presented in NADIR 2009 meeting, case P in 2010 NADIR meeting. Cases A, B, C are presented here.

15. Where we are at now CTIPe run with SRPM nowcast Sensitivity exam of high-res SSI

16. Future work Transition opportunities Improvements and comparisons as new cycle reaches max and decays Use of forecast in CTIPe and TIGCM Study relevance of improvements to thermospheric modeling (neutral density, electron density, and ionospheric properties)