1. Everett A. Hinkley National Remote Sensing Program Manager USDA Forest Service Wildfire Support – Technology and Challenges FEDERAL FIRE WORKING GROUP MEETING December 2013

2. Technology and Disasters Disasters –Yarnell Hill Fire –What happened –Could it have been prevented Technology –The role of technology in mitigating risk –What we currently bring to the fight

3. Technology and Disasters CAVEATS Too much reliance on technology can create a false sense of security and dull our common sense in dangerous situations. Technology can not prevent make all of us safe all the time.

4. Yarnell Hill Fire Nineteen firefighters died on the Yarnell Hill Fire in central Arizona on June 30, 2013 after deploying fire shelters. They were members of the Granite Mountain Interagency Hotshot Crew, hosted by the Prescott Fire Department. The one crewmember who survived was separated from the crew earlier that day and was not at the deployment site.

5. Yarnell Hill Fire For most of the day (June 30), the fire spread to the northeast, threatening structures in Model Creek and Peeples Valley. Around 1550, the wind shifted and the fire started pushing aggressively to the southeast, toward Yarnell. Fire resources shifted to resident evacuation and structure protection in town. Only the Granite Mountain IHC remained out on the ridge, on the southwest perimeter of the fire. Personnel who communicated with the Granite Mountain IHC knew the crew was in the black at that time and assumed they would stay there. No one realized that the crew left the black and headed southeast, sometime after 1604. At 1630, thunderstorm outflows reached the southern perimeter of the fire. Winds increased substantially; the fire turned south and overran the Granite Mountain IHC at about 1642.

6. Yarnell Hill Fire

7. Yarnell Hill Fire – What Went Wrong? Radio communications were challenging throughout the incident. Some radios were not programmed with appropriate tone guards. Crews identified the problem, engaged in troubleshooting, and developed workarounds so they could communicate using their radios. Radio traffic was heavy during critical times on the fire. A 30 minute gap in communication occurred at a critical time. Although much communication occurred among crews throughout the day, few people understood Granite Mountain’s intentions, movements, and location, once they left the black. A significant and unexpected change in weather occurred about the same time. The fire’s complexity increased in a very short time, challenging all firefighting resources to keep pace with the rapidly expanding incident.

8. Yarnell Hill Fire – What Went Wrong? The Granite Mountain IHC had been watching the active fire burn away from their position all day but their observations did not lead them to anticipate the approaching outflow boundary or the accompanying significant fire behavior changes. These changes included a doubling of fire intensity and flame lengths, a second 90-degree directional change, and a dramatically accelerated rate of spread. The IHC was moving to a safe zone when they likely became aware of the significant change in fire behavior and did not have time to reach the safe zone, nor retreat to the previous safe zone. At the time of the shelter deployment, a VLAT (Very Large Air Tanker) was on station over the fire waiting to drop retardant as soon as the crew’s location was determined.

9. Yarnell Hill Fire There is much that cannot be known about the crew’s decisions and actions prior to their entrapment and fire shelter deployment in the late afternoon (~1642). It is known that the Granite Mountain IHC left the black (safety zone) sometime after 1604 and traveled through an unburned area toward a safety zone at the Boulder Springs Ranch. Thunderstorm outflows changed the intensity and direction of fire spread, and the rapidly advancing fire eliminated the crew’s options of reaching the safety zone or returning to the canyon rim. They had less than two minutes to improve a deployment site. They were deploying fire shelters when the fire overtook them. Temperatures exceeded 2000 o F, and the deployment site was not survivable. The nineteen crewmembers were found approximately one mile south-southeast of their last known location, approximately 600 yards west of the Ranch.

10. –Fire detection and reporting –Fuel information – what is available to burn? –Weather: Good forecasting Real time, high granularity weather information during event. –Where is the fire? Fire perimeter and active fire fronts –Where the fire has been (the black) –Lines of containment –Where is the crew? Technology: What Information is Needed?

11. The (RS) Technology Pieces Platform Capabilities – Explore test and evaluate UAS utility as fire imaging platforms. Sensor Capabilities – Showcase multi-channel improved fire discrimination potential. Data Telemetry Capabilities Aircell Internet capability UAS radio repeaters Common Decision Environment – Intelligent mission management technologies for improved data collection, dissemination and decision support.

12. Spaceborne –MODIS –Landsat –NTM –Other Airborne –Phoenix –Various (vendors) –*Unmanned Airborne Systems: Ikhana / Global Hawk / Others Other –Firehawk –*Hawkeye Where is the fire? Data Sources

13. 13 Active Fire Mapping Program The USDA Forest Service Active Fire Mapping (AFM) program provides critical, timely, and comprehensive imagery and fire geospatial data products for the wildfire management community and the public at large. These are strategic fire products. The AFM fire locations are produced by an operational, satellite- based fire detection and monitoring program managed by the Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC) in Salt Lake City, Utah. High temporal resolution image data acquired NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and collected by RSAC via direct readout, are currently the primary remote sensing data source for AFM.

14. National Infrared Operations National Infrared Operations - “NIROPS” Large scale tactical fire detection/mapping to support incident command operations Continuous operational deployment since 1967 http://nirops.fs.fed.us Support Functions: IRIN Incident Support IRIN Training PHOENIX technical support IR Coordination Support NIROPS Operations Guide Maintenance of NIROPS website/IR ordering system

15. National Infrared Operations World Class Tactical Fire Mapping

16. Tactical IR Assets 149Z144Z King Air 200B Citation Bravo Contract IR Aircraft Once FS assets have been exhausted National Coordinator can utilize these Firehawk Firehawk

17. Phoenix Products 8-bit (0-255) imagery –255 pixel tagged red 3.5-meter pixels at nadir at 10,000 ft. AGL The detection threshold at 10,000 ft. AGL is 8”. Nominal swath width of 6 miles at 10,000 ft. AGL

18. High resolution fire map products needed for daily 6:00 AM Incident Command briefing Delineate fire perimeter and active fire areas Identify problem areas – hot spots inside & outside containment line Identify hot spots during the mop- up phase Products delivered to the incident: ArcGIS shapefiles (point, line, polygon) PDF map KML/KMZ files are a standard deliverable Interpreter’s Log Tactical Scale Active-Fire Mapping

19. DoD/DHS Global Hawk EXPENSIVE!!

20. GH Imagery

21. Global Hawk Image Chip and Shapefile

22. Commercial IR Vendors Few qualified vendors Not always available Cost significantly more than the NIROPS aircraft

23. Collaborators NASA-Ames Research Center (ARC) USDA – Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC) National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Wildfire Research and Applications Partnership (WRAP) NASA Sun-Earth Systems Directorate, Applied Sciences Program

24. Tactical Fire Remote Sensing Advisory Committee (TFRSAC) Mission: Ensure that the WRAP program is supporting the firefighter’s technology needs. Transfer capable technology and development applications to the Field. Membership: Stakeholders from NASA, USDA Forest Service, DOI Bureau of Land Management, Universities, and including Firefighters from 3 nations, with expertise in fire detection/mapping, aviation, communications, and ground operations.

25. Fire Mapping Sensors Xiomas Wide Area Sensor

26. Small UAS Futuring Desired Features Fully autonomous takeoff and landing Operable from small, unimproved locations!! Man or light truck portable Capable imaging systems and guidance systems VTOL Preferred

27. Near Real-Time Imagery

28. Google Earth Common Decision Environment (CDE)

29. Technology and Disasters CAVEATS Too much reliance on technology can create a false sense of security and dull our common sense in dangerous situations. Technology can not prevent make all of us safe all the time.

30. Comments/Questions

31. Contacts Everett A. Hinkley National Remote Sensing Program Manager USDA Forest Service 703-605-4580 / ehinkley@fs.fed.us