1. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map: An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model Presenter: Jun-Yi Wu Authors: Philippe du Jardin, Eric Séverin 2011 DSS 國立雲林科技大學 National Yunlin University of Science and Technology

2. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Outline Motivation Objective Methodology Experiments Conclusion Comments 2

3. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Motivation 3 Most prediction models fail to forecast accurately the occurrence of failure beyond 1 year, and their accuracy tends to fall as the prediction horizon recedes. Prediction rates are rather good one year before failure, but less so as the horizon recedes to two and three years.

4. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Objective To use what some researchers have called the “trajectory of corporate collapse” to examine another way of estimating the changes in firms' financial health. To propose a new way of using a Kohonen map to improve model reliability. 4

5. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Methodology 5

6. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 6

7. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 7

8. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 8

9. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 9

10. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 10

11. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Experiments 11

12. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Conclusion 12 To propose a new way of assessing a company’s financial health. To use what we called “trajectories”, and a Kohonen map to quantize such trajectories, to measure it over time, rather than at a given moment in time. To compared the predictive ability of these trajectories to that of modeling methods traditionally used to design financial failure models.

13. Intelligent Database Systems Lab N.Y.U.S.T. I. M. Comments 13 Advantage  Many experiments Application  Forecasting horizon  Financial failure prediction