1. Alternative Models for Managing Self-Replicating Nanotechnology Including Analysis of Foresight Institute Guidelines Applied to Land, Sea & Space- Based Scenarios In Which Self-Replicating Nanotechnology is Necessary Martine Rothblatt martine@terasemweb.org

2. Molecular Nanotech (MNT) Ability to program matter with molecular precision –Not same as nano- dimensioned materials –Does not imply self- replication; a subset Scale & Productize as desired –Universal material abundance; end poverty –Inexpensive ideal building materials –Solve health problems

3. Self-Replication Unlikely for MNT Manufacturing Replicators are devices: –Self-fabricating capability –Self-fabricating software Nano-scale tools on an assembly line simpler –Make sub-assemblies Scale factory to size of what is needed Any removed nano- scale tool is inert outside the factory

4. Foresight Institute Orientation Educate to create shared understandings Community controls Maximize R, D & C Distribute MNT benefits to 3rdW to end poverty Respect ecological & public health principles Develop a means to restrict misuse of MNT internationally

5. Foresight Guidelines Intent “Become sufficiently specific that they can form the basis for a legally enforceable framework” Lab certs, random open inspections, professional society norms, insurance req’ts, stiff legal and economic penalties, “and other sanctions.”

6. Foresight Guidelines In a Nutshell, or … Eggshell? Preamble -- Flexibility Principles -- Risks Vary –Legal liability (+misuse) –Market costs (-Guideline) –Built-in safety measures –Eco & Health Friendly –“Clarity” v. “Minimalism” Development Principles –No uncontrolled replication –Restrict dev’t access Design Guidelines –Discourage mutation –Discourage access

7. Expressed as 0-5 Scorecards: 3 Sets of 8-11 Item Guidelines For Professionals –Responsible, open, cautious, ethical, anti- replicative, etc. For Industry –Anti-replicative, audit trails, etc. For Gov’t Policy –Risk-specific regs, clarity, minimalist except for self- replicative tech & deliberate misuse, etc.

8. I MNT Self- Replication? II Controlled Environment? Y N Anything Eco- Health-Security Friendly Is OK Y N BANNED III Replication, Audit, Mutation & Access Highly Controllable? N Y BANNED OK If Ethical Party* FORESIGHT GUIDELINES FLOWCHARTED *Ethical Party = “responsible actors that have agreed to Practice these Guidelines.” Scorecard 3-8. MAR’05

9. Foresight Guidelines Critiqued Seeks Specificity, –but asks for minimal regulation Wants minimal regs, –but strong anti-misuse penalties; even criminal Says Self-Replication is Unneeded, – but 10/27 guidelines deal explicitly with self- replication, +6 implicitly Forbids replicators in uncontrolled spaces –what if rewards>>>risks?

10. Mulhall Scenarios Where Self-Replication Is Needed Rapid obliteration of asteroidal threat –Asteroid disassembly –Extraction nanobots Rapid amelioration of volcanic threat –Subterranean nano- excavators;  pressure –  air debris w/stratobots Rapid minimization of tsunami threat –Nanites consume gunk

11. Foresight Bans NMT Replicators Where Needed Space, ground, sea, air are all part of non- closed systems Fear of man-caused harm outweighs fear of natural catastrophes Clever trade-off –Trade what we don’t have (world-saving NMT) –To gain a safe harbor –To develop enabling NMT for self-replication

12. Alternative Geoethical Approach: Threshold Appropriate for “Your Life or Mine” type of questions –Saving my life may endanger your life Applies for global impact technology MNT Meets Both Geoethical Criteria

13. 3 Principles of Geoethics: Tech Goes Forward IFF Benefit Principle –Helps relatively most those worst off Risk Principle –Consented to by all who may be affected Assurance Principle –Self-finances audit of compliance

14. Why These Principles? Think of the world as a patient -- >> bioethics –Beneficence, Informed Consent, Peer Review Synthesis of “first principles” philosophers –Rawls (what rules would we want if we might be anyone); Habermas Approach has worked well in other areas

15. Example: Permit Open System Disaster-Mitigation Replicators? Benefit: Helps most those most at risk. Risk: Consented to by all who may be affected? –Need representative organization Assurance: Who ensures compliance? –Need compliance monitoring organization

16. Geoethical Implementation International Self- Replicating Technology Organization (IntelRep) Exclusive Replicator Production Rights Every Country/Corp. Can Be a Member Sells to National Members for Resale Monitors Members MNT Activities

17. IntelRep-Level Functionality Treaty-based NGO Country ownership Asian, American & Eurafrican Labs Competences –Best NMT Practices –Global NMT Inspection –Self-Rep Tech Dev –Model Risks & Training –Fail/Safe Controls –Sales Applications

18. Member-Level Functionality Receive Nominal Share, Buy More May Pool Interests for Private Sector Enforce IntelRep Domestically Provide Training Opportunities Receive ROI From Self- Replication Sales

19. Getting it Started Leading MNT firms co- draft strawman treaty Get it blessed by their state ministries Open to Ratification Enter into force with a few signatures Assign/Sell shares Commence NMT Work Continually court all other states > universal

20. Sales Pitch Membership is free Help shape NMT replication practices High-level training opportunities Access to benefits for your country Revenue opportunity

21. Responsibilities if You Signup Help enforce the IntelRep self-rep exclusive nationally Screen potential customers for responsibility level or signs of misuse Disseminate best practices nationally

22. IntelRep Meets Foresight International Control Against Misuse  Minimal Red Tape  3W Benefits  Sales Restricted to Responsible Actors  Self-Replication in Open Systems Is Possible  Misuse actionable  Ongoing best practices study & modeling 

23. IntelRep Financing National Buy-Ins to Ensure Participation Nominal Set-Asides for Poor Countries Capital Market Financing Based on DCFs of Exclusive Rights to Sell Replicative NMT NPV of $1Trillion in 20y@20% = $20B (=$200B@12%)

24. Other Geoethical Benchmarks Benefit Principle >> 3W Countries Leap Into NMT, While 1W Mostly Gets Regulation Risk Principle >> No Open System Devices W/out IntelRep OK –Concatenated Voting/ Representation Enables Consensus Without Undue Blackballing Assurance Principle>> IntelRep Self-Funds Inspections & Audits

25. Why the Geoethical Approach Works Sequesters Worst Risks In Few Highly Visible Places Gives Everyone Ownership of Those Risks & Rewards Gives Risk Managers Strong Incentive for Pursuing Rewards Balances Incentives With Control by Agents of Risked Populations

26. Summary Foresight Guidelines Are Clever Can Be Improved Upon & Subsumed Geoethics Resolves Open System Hole IntelRep Should Be Organized Now Time to Pass the Baton Onwards!