1. …empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management Adaptive Management Conservation Strategies for Restoring Ecosystems

3. Adaptive Management Plan Where should we go? Implement How will we get there? Evaluate Did we make it? Discuss Where are we? Share Who should know?

4. Needs Assessment Create Project Team Discuss: Conservation Priority Conservation Area Research Question Identify critical threats Modeling Situation analysis

5. Define Project Team Selection of initial project team, including project leader, core members, and advisory members Identification of key skills each team member brings Designation of roles and responsibilities

6. Define Project Team Project Leader Master Naturalist volunteer Core Members Audubon chapter Volunteers with bird or plant identification skills and monitoring experience Hiking chapter Volunteers with bird or plant identification skills and monitoring experience Ranchers and farmers Local experience and knowledge. Fishermen Fish identification skills and monitoring experience Advisors Researchers from Urbania University Two managers of Wilderness Woods

7. Conservation Conservation Priority Increase and maintain recreational fish populations in Urbana lake Conservation Area Trout River Watershed Question What is the relationship between agricultural activity, urban activity, and lake habitat?

8. Selection of conservation targets, including a brief explanation of why they were chosen Agriculture practices Water quality Presence and absence of desired species Description of the status of each conservation target Make sure to use verifiable data! Water quality measurements, presence or absence of key species, or other measures of habitat quality. Conservation

9. What do we need to know? – Recreational Fish Populations – Water Quality – Land use practices What are we trying to do? Maintain the health of recreational fish populations. Conservation

10. Define project area Determine the number of sites necessary to address the health of the population Conservation Area

11. Define Components What is important in this system? These will be called “components” Components are social, economic, and environmental factors in the system

12. Recreational Fish PopulationsWater Quality What are the components that we care about? Define Components

13. Agricultural Production Nitrogen What are the threats to these central components? Define Components Overfishing

14. Fish habitat Predators and PreyPeople who fish What other components are important for recreational fish populations? Define Components

15. Modeling We’re now going to go through a modeling exercise intended to help you see how conceptual modeling can help you think about the major parts of a complex system.

16. Modeling It is our intention that this exercise will help you in the discussion phase of the adaptive management process. Later on, we will make a more formal model.

17. Modeling

18. Think about the Trout River system and the problems that it faces. Draw a model of what is currently going on in the system. Think about concepts and processes and represent them using words and arrows. Do NOT use pictures for this exercise.

19. Modeling Are you using arrows? If so, what does each arrow represent?

20. Modeling Are you using arrows? If so, what does each arrow represent? Are you not using arrows? If not, how are you representing events that lead to an outcome?

21. Modeling Are you using arrows? If so, what does each arrow represent? Are you not using arrows? If not, how are you representing events that lead to an outcome? Ask yourself as you are making your model: What am I trying to represent? Am I including everything needed to show this? Am I including anything that is unnecessary?

22. Modeling Draw a box around each and every process in the model. Did you represent processes in the connections between components, or are the processes shown as distinct elements? Draw a circle around each cause of an undesired outcome. Some areas may have a box and a circle.

23. Modeling For the quiz after this presentation, please take a scan or picture of the model that you just drew. It can be a cell phone picture or an image from a scanner, but you will have to save it to your computer in order to upload it in a few minutes. (If you have trouble with this step, contact me at mellor@vt.edu and we can arrange to pick it up) mellor@vt.edu

24. Future Steps Modeling Make your own model Share your model with others Group modeling Revise, revise, revise! Project Planning How will modifications to the system affect your areas of concern? Implementation, evaluation, and dissemination.

25. …empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management This project is funded by the National Science Foundation

26. The Virginia Master Naturalist Program is sponsored by the following agencies.