1. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 1 Stock Market Cycles Schematic model intended to Indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Accumulation Zone Distribution Zone Long-Term Trend Structure Short-Term Trend Structure Intermediate-Term Trend Structure Schematic model intended to Indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Accumulation Zone Distribution Zone Long-Term Trend Structure Short-Term Trend Structure Intermediate-Term Trend Structure

2. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 2 The Amplitude of a Wave

3. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 3 The Period of a Wave

4. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 4 The Phase Difference Between 2 Waves

5. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 5 The Summation of 2 Waves

6. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 6 Lacking Harmonicity

7. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 7 Lacking Synchonicity

8. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 8 Displaying Both Harmonicity & Synchonicity

9. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 9 DJIA Quarterly Hi-Lo, illustrating 4-4 /1/2 Year Cycle. Avg. Duration: Last 8 cycles 1949-1982 is 49.8 months. Avg. Bull Phase Skew is 35.4 months; Avg. Bear Phase Skew is 14.4 months. Kitchin Wave

10. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 10 Edward Dewey 9.2-Year Cycle in Stock Prices 1830-1966

11. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 11 Kondratieff’s Long Wave

12. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 12 Schumpeter’s Model – The 19th Century Business Model

13. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 13 Sun Spots

14. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 14 Structure of an Ideal Elliott Wave

15. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 15 Seasonal Cycles November Soybeans (CBOT) 15-Year Seasonal (1983-1997)

16. MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 16 Average month-to-month % change in S&P 500 (based on monthly closing prices) Seasonal Cycles – Market Performance Each Month of the Year 46-1/3 Years (January 1950 - April 1996)