1. NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH The NCAR/ATEC Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System – “Ensemble-RTFDDA” Yubao Liu, Tom Warner, Scott Swerdlin and John Pace* NCAR/Research Application Laboratory *Dugway Proving Ground, US Army National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction September 23 – 24, 2009, Boulder, CO

2. NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH Acknowledgements The NCAR RTFDDA modeling team Wanli Wu, Gregory Roux, Tom Hopson, Josh Hacker, Al Bourgeois, Rong-Shyang Sheu, Laurie Carson, Mei Xu, Wei Yu, Francois Vandenberghe Tom Warner, Scott Swerdlin, Terri Betancourt, Fei Chen, Jason Knievel, Ming Ge, Yuewei Liu, Andrea Hahmann, Chris Davis, Jenny Sun and many others. The ATEC test ranges Scott Halvorson, John Pace, Sue Krippner, Frank Gallagher, James Bowers, Al Astling, Donald Storwold, James Renolds, and many others Several other sponsors, collaborators and users DTRA, Xcel Energy, AirDat LLc, STAR, DOT, Israel Air Force …

3.  A multiple (temporal and spatial) scale problems  Uncertainties for small scale different scales differ from those on synoptic scales  Uncertainties in boundary conditions  Physics plays a critical role  Uncertainties in 100+ parameters of physical schemes  Uncertainties in LS and trace gases/aerosol specification  Terrain representation  Data assimilation  Uncertainties in observations, B (P f ) and thus analyses  Seamless DA and EPS  Intuitive probabilistic prediction products Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

4. RTFDDA  Ensemble-RTFDDA Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

5. E-RTFDDA Implementation: “3-Modules” 1. Ensemble Generator Construct an exhaustive ensemble member library 2. Member Selector Pick the most appropriate members of an affordable ensemble size for specific applications 3. Member Execution Integrate data analysis and forecast with a continuous cycling mechanism Probabilistic analysis and forecast products Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

6. The Ensemble Generator Module LSM LDAS Radiation Precipitation Upper-air weather forcing Vegetation … Parameters ETKF EnKF Cycling Perturbations And scaling GFS Stat. perturb. Other. Perturb. NAM ECMWF Obs Data Assimilation Weights Perturbations in components may be combined  200+ members MM5 WRF Physics Schemes and Parameters perturbations Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

7. The Member Selection Module  Pre-conditions  Typical weather regimes at the application location  Weather variables of high interest  Objectives  Remove outliers that are persistently verified bad  Clear members that provide redundant info  Approaches  People in the loop: manual picks  Automated: continuously self-training and adjusting  Automated perturbation member selection  Optimal sampling for representation of forecast PDF  Difficult to implement  Affect ensemble calibration implementation Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

8. The Ensemble Execution Module Perturbations observations Member 1 Perturbations observations Member 2 Perturbations observations Member 3 Perturbations observations Member N … 36-48h fcsts 36-48h fcsts 36-48h fcsts 36-48h fcsts Input to decision support tools Post processing Archiving and verification RTFDDA Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

9. An E-RTFDDA Operation at the Army Dugway Proving Ground Since Aug. 2007 D1 D2 D3 D2 playa DPG SLC D1: map  X=30 km D2: terrain  X=10 km D3: land use  X=3.33 km 250 km X 250 km Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

10. 30 members, 6h cycles, 42h forecasts E# LBC WRF Members (15) 1 NAM Control: WRF baseline physics 2 GFS Control: WRF baseline physics 3 NAM SLAB land surface 4 NAM MYJ PBL 5 NAM MYJ PBL + GD Cumulus 6 NAM WMS6 microphysics 7 NAM GD cumulus 8 GFS Thomason microphysics 9 GFS MYJ PBL + WMS5 microphysics 10 GFS MYJ PBL 11 GFS MYJ PBL + GD Cumulus 12 GFS BMJ cumulus 13 GFS BMJ cumulus in 3.3 km grid 14 GFS GD cumulus in 3.3 km grid 15 GFS KF cumulus in 3.3 km grid E# LBCMM5 Members (15) 16 NAM Control: MM5 baseline physics 17 GFS Control: MM5 baseline physics 18 NAM Simple cloud-effect radiation 19 NAM ETA TKE PBL 20 NAM Kain-Fritsch cumulus 21 NAM Goddard microphysics 22 GFS Betts-Miller cumulus 23 GFS Reisner 3-ice microphysics 24 GFS CCM2 radiation 25 GFS GFS LBC Phase-uncertainty 1 26 GFS Symmetric perturb to Member 25 27 GFS GFS LBC Phase-uncertainty 2 28 GFS Symmetric perturb. to Member 27 29 GFS Correlated sounding perturbation 30 GFS Symmetric perturb. to Member 29 Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

11. Operated at US Army DPG since Sep. 2007 D1 D2 D3 Surface and X-sections – Mean, Spread, Exceedance Probability, Spaghetti, … Likelihood for SPD > 10m/s Mean T & Wind T Mean and SD Wind Speed T-2m Wind Rose Pin-point Surface and Profiles – Mean, Spread, Exceedance probability, spaghetti, Wind roses, Histograms … Real-time Operational Products for DPG

12. 2-m Temperatures for the 06Z Cycles on 4 – 7 Feb. 2008 at DPG SAMS8 00Z06Z12Z18Z00Z06Z12Z18Z Feb. 4 (Forecast hours) (GMT hours) Data assimilation works effectively with both MM5 and WRF members and different physics suites WRF vs. MM5 separation NAM vs. GFS separation Model forecast accuracy is continuously improved and the uncertainty reduced with time Feb. 5 Feb. 6 Feb. 7 T2m (C)

13. 10-m Winds Mean Vectors and Speed Spread 36h Forecasts Valid at 18Z (Feb. – Mar. 2008) MM5 WRF Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

14. 10-m Wind Speed Spread-skill Correlation at SAMS12 Spread MAE Forecast hours (for 06Z cycle only) Mean Absolute Error/Std Dev (m/s) Spread (Std Dev; m/s) Skill (Mean Absolute error (m/s) Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

15. 2008 Feb-Mar Mean: 10-m Winds SPD (m/s) Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

16. 36hr Temperature Calibration with Quantile Regression (DPG SAM 12) Reference Forecasts: Black -- raw ensemble Blue -- persistence RMSE Skill Score After Calib Before Calib

17. A 4D Relaxation Ensemble Kalman Filter Obs-nudging: Dx/Dt =... + G W (y o – Hx f ) W = W q W time W horizontal W vertical Obs-nudging  EnKF: X a = X f +  tGW ( y o – Hx f ) where X f = X t-1 +  t (…) EnKF:  tGW = K e 4D-REKF:  tGW = G W q W time K e EnKF Nudging-EnKF one  t nudging EnKF: Dx/Dt =... + GW q W time K e ( y o – Hx model ) Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009

18.  Combines obs-nudging E-RTFDDA and EnKF  E-RTFDDA  Error covariance  Kalman Gain  Kalman Gain  Obs-nudging weight  (E-)RTFDDA  Kalman Filter  I.C. perturbations  E-RTFDDA  For this relaxation filter, the structures of error covariance are critical, but not their magnitudes.  4D-REKF(S) produces “spun-up” current analyses and I.C.s for forecasting.  Indirect observations can be assimilated.  Development is in process: DART  E-RTFDDA Essence of 4D-REKF(S)

19. Summary and Conclusions  E-RTFDDA: relocatbale, multi-model, multi-approach and multi-scale, continuously cycling mesoscale ensemble analysis and forecasting.  Supporting meso-  scale applications  Verification indicates benefit of multi-model approaches, importance of model physics and terrain- induced predictability.  QR calibration improves the probabilistic forecasts and helps identify redundant and outlier members.  E-RTFDDA new development: A seamless, hybrid obs- nudging and (DART) EnKF mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction algorithm (4D-REKF). Liu et al. DTC National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, Boulder, CO. September 23-24, 2009