1. AIRPORT DECISION SUPPORT: CAPACITY FORECAST Henk Hesselink Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR) Amsterdam, Netherlands Email: henk.hesselink@nlr.nl 1 12 NOVEMBER 2015

2. 2 Hundreds of flights hit by severe fog at 20 airports By DOUG NEWHOUSE | Monday, 2 November 2015 9:08 Heathrow Airport alone saw more than 90 flights cancelled yesterday and another 20 again early this morning. Just as well, other airports in Europe suffered from the dense fog, leaving them unreachable. This concerned Schiphol, Frankfurt, Berlin, Düsseldorf and Brussels. Over 4000 people saw their flights cancelled on November 1 st, at Schiphol Airport.

3. 3 Hundreds of flights hit by severe fog at 20 airports By DOUG NEWHOUSE | Monday, 2 November 2015 9:08 Couple stranded for two days in Amsterdam Airport by fog in scenes resembling a 'refugee camp' Michaela Jones and her husband stayed at Schiphol Airport for two days Their flight to Liverpool had been cancelled due to sickness and fog They slept on camping beds in an empty section of the terminal building Some South African travellers have shared how they've been delayed for more than 12 hours at the airport on Sunday, due to the adverse weather conditions. The delays caused queues, which took more than four-hours long for the re-booking of connecting flight, and then further queues for the issuing of temporary visas in order to transit through the airport.

4. Actions necessary to avoid passenger dissatisfaction Cancelling flights the day before + offering alternative = okay Cancelling flights while at the airport + offering a field bed at the airport = passengers will not fly the airline again Advance airport capacity information is crucial 12 NOVEMBER 2015 INAIR 4 Cancelling flights the day before + offering alternative = okay Cancelling flights while at the airport + offering a field bed at the airport = passengers will not fly the airline again

5. Other possible disturbances Strike Snow De-icing Capacity shortage on busy days Alerts (e.g. bomb alert or passengers causing) Incidents/accidents with flights ICT failures  Two types: foreseeable and incidents. The first, we can consider “plannable” INAIR 5 12 NOVEMBER 2015

6. Planning at airports Planning has come to great solutions for all stakeholders. Planning tools are used and work well. INAIR 6 12 NOVEMBER 2015

7. Planning in disturbed situations Planning also works well with disturbance: if the disturbance is known on forehand if the uncertainty in the disturbance is known if planning is able to cope with uncertainty Quality of the planning system depends on the quality of the input. This is the next bottleneck. A-CDM, TAM, DCB (Airport Collaborative Decision Making, Total Airport Management, Demand and Capacity Balancing) INAIR 7 Airline planning Crew planning 4D trajectory planning 12 NOVEMBER 2015

8. Arrival management - cooperation INAIR 8 12 NOVEMBER 2015

9. The next step No information exchange on plans Next steps will be: further optimisation of plans hierarchical planning through negotiation through advanced information INAIR 9 Airline planning Crew planning 12 NOVEMBER 2015

10. Capacity forecasting Airport Capacity Forecast (ACF) (SESAR WP E) investigates the use of forecast information concerning airport capacity, which will allow airport stakeholders to optimise use of their resources INAIR 10 12 NOVEMBER 2015

11. Characteristics of capacity forecasting for airports Probabilistic, uncertainty Tactical planning (1 hour to 48 hours) Estimation of consequences of events 11 INAIR 12 NOVEMBER 2015

12. 12 Capacity forecast for runway management: weather forecast INAIR 12 NOVEMBER 2015

13. Runway selection INAIR 13 We have set up a method for runway combination selection 12 NOVEMBER 2015

14. Runway capacity Capacity is based on Runway combination UDP visibility conditions Visibility LVP = categories A to D, based on visual observation possibility LVP = based on horizontal visibility and cloud base LVP = ILS category (on ground and aircraft equipment) INAIR 14 12 NOVEMBER 2015

15. Capacity INAIR 15 Landing DateHourGV-UDPGV-NUDPMVAVBVCV Total 10/01/20125:00016,83,6 00 24 10/01/20126:00043,610,18,42,20 64,2 10/01/20127:00043,620,12,800 66,5 10/01/20128:00043,620,12,800 66,5 10/01/201210:0051013,42,800 67,2 10/01/201211:003800000 10/01/201212:006800000 … ………………… … 18/07/201218:0030,401,6000 32 18/07/201219:0036,101,9000 38 18/07/201220:0026,6011,4000 38 18/07/201221:0016,807,2000 24 18/07/201222:0016,807,2000 24 18/07/201223:00016,87,2000 24 19/07/20120:00014,49,6000 24 … ………………… … 30/06/20136:006800000 30/06/20138:003800000 30/06/20139:006800000 30/06/201310:003800000 30/06/201311:006800000 30/06/201312:003800000 30/06/201313:006800000 Visibility categories(not) UDP 12 NOVEMBER 2015

16. Airport Capacity Forecast - Dashboard 12 NOVEMBER 2015

17. Airport Capacity Forecast - Dashboard 12 NOVEMBER 2015

18. For Schiphol Expected runway use All parties have the same information on forecasted capacity KLM may decide to cancel flights Other airlines will be requested to participate The airport will be able to provide advance information INAIR 18 12 NOVEMBER 2015

19. The result Improved planning for all stakeholders Negotation will be enabled between the stakeholders all have the same information communication at “higher level” no need for sharing commercially sensitive information Improved stakeholder processes and... Happy passengers INAIR 19

20. Background H. Hesselink, J. Nibourg, L. d’Estampes and P. Lezaud, Airport Capacity Forecast - Short-term Forecasting of Runway Capacity, SESAR Innovation Days, Madrid, 25 November 2014 www.acf-project.eu LinkedIn group: airport capacity forecast INAIR 20 12 NOVEMBER 2015

21. INAIR 21 12 NOVEMBER 2015