1. Property & Casualty Insurance Market Update Trends, Challenges & Opportunities for 2016 and Beyond Casualty Actuaries of Greater New York New York, NY December 3, 2015 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520  Cell: 917.453.1885  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

2. 2 Insurance Industry Financial Performance 2014 Was a Reasonably Good Year 2015: A Repeat of 2014? 12/01/09 - 9pm 2

3. P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes 1991–2015:Q3 (Est.) 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS 1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS 1 = 5.9% 2013 ROAS 1 = 10.2% 2014 ROAS 1 = 8.4% 2015:H1 ROAS = 9.2% ROE figures are GAAP; 1 Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute Net income fell modestly (-12.5%) in 2014 vs. 2013 $ Millions

4. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 4 ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, 1987–2015E * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2014. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute. P/C Profitability Is Both by Cyclicality and Ordinary Volatility Hugo Andrew Northridge Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years Sept. 11 Katrina, Rita, Wilma 4 Hurricanes Financial Crisis* (Percent) Record Tornado Losses Sandy Low CATs Modestly higher CATs

5. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 5 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2015:Q3 (Est.)* * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO. As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Cyclical Deterioration Sandy Impacts Lower CAT Losses Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases

6. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 6 Auto & Home vs. All Lines, Net Written Premium Growth, 2000–2018F Sources: A.M. Best (2000-2014); Conning/Insurance Information Institute (2015F-2018F); Insurance Information Institute. Average 2000-2014 Auto = 3.0% Home = 6.4% All Lines = 3.8% While homeowners insurance has grown faster than auto for many years, auto is generally more profitable, though not recently

7. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 7 Distribution of Direct Premiums Written by Segment/Line, 2013 Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute research. Personal/Commercial lines split has been about 50/50 for many years Pvt. Passenger Auto is by far the largest line of insurance and is currently the most important source of industry profits Billions of additional dollars in homeowners insurance premiums are written by state- run residual market plans Distribution Facts Commercial Lines $269.2B/51% 2013 Pvt. Pass Auto $180.8B/34% Homeowners $80.7B/15%

8. 8 RNW All Lines by State, 2004-2013 Average: Highest 25 States The most profitable states over the past decade are widely distributed geographically, though none are in the Gulf region Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute. Profitability Benchmark: All P/C US: 7.9%

9. 9 RNW All Lines by State, 2004-2013 Average: Lowest 25 States Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute. Some of the least profitable states over the past decade were hit hard by catastrophes

10. 10 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC. Hawaii was the most profitable state for auto insurers from 2004-2013 Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2004-2013*) Top 25 States (Percent)

11. 11 Top Ten Most Expensive And Least Expensive States For Automobile Insurance, 2012 (1) Rank Most expensive states Average expenditureRank Least expensive states Average expenditure 1 New Jersey $1,219.93 1 Idaho $534.56 2 D.C. 1,154.91 2 South Dakota 556.51 3 New York 1,152.45 3 Iowa 561.26 4 Florida 1,127.93 4 North Dakota 576.08 5 Louisiana 1,112.53 5 Maine 582.43 6 Delaware 1,065.37 6 Wisconsin 598.84 7 Michigan 1,048.87 7 North Carolina 611.48 8 Rhode Island 1,034.50 8 Nebraska 616.78 9 Connecticut 986.73 9 Wyoming 618.81 10 Massachusetts 976.65 10 Kansas 632.07 (1)Based on average automobile insurance expenditures. Source: © 2014 National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Florida ranked 4th as the most expensive state in 2012, with an average expenditure for auto insurance of $1,127.93.

12. 12 Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2004-2013*) *Latest available. Sources: NAIC Michigan was the least profitable state for auto insurers from 2004-2013 (Percent) Bottom 25 States

13. 13 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC. Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2004-2013*) Hawaii was the most profitable state for home insurers from 2004-2013 due to the absence of hurricanes during this period (Percent) Top 25 States

14. 14 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made Louisiana and Mississippi the least profitable states for home insurers from 2004-2013 Bottom 25 States (Percent) Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2004-2013*)

15. 15 Top Ten Most Expensive And Least Expensive States For Homeowners Insurance, 2012 (1) Rank Most expensive states HO average premiumRank Least expensive states HO average premium 1 Florida$2,084 1 Idaho$538 2 Louisiana1,742 2 Oregon567 3 Texas1,661 3 Utah580 4 Oklahoma1,501 4 Wisconsin631 5 Mississippi1,314 5 Washington648 6 Alabama1,248 6 Nevada674 7 Rhode Island1,233 7 Delaware678 8 Kansas1,213 8 Arizona691 9 Connecticut1,160 9 Ohio721 10 New York1,158 10 Maine741 (1)Includes policies written by Citizens Property Insurance Corp. (Florida) and Citizens Property Insurance Corp. (Louisiana), Alabama Insurance Underwriting Association, Mississippi Windstorm Underwriting Association, North Carolina Joint Underwriting Association and South Carolina Wind and Hail Underwriting Association. Other southeastern states have wind pools in operation and their data may not be included in this chart. Based on the HO-3 homeowner package policy for owner-occupied dwellings, 1 to 4 family units. Provides “all risks” coverage (except those specifically excluded in the policy) on buildings and broad named-peril coverage on personal property, and is the most common package written. (2)The Texas Department of Insurance developed home insurance policy forms that are similar but not identical to the standard forms. In addition, due to the Texas Windstorm Association (which writes wind-only policies) classifying HO-1, 2 and 5 premiums as HO-3, the average premium for homeowners insurance is artificially high. Note: Average premium=Premiums/exposure per house years. A house year is equal to 365 days of insured coverage for a single dwelling. The NAIC does not rank state average expenditures and does not endorse any conclusions drawn from this data. Source: ©2014 National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Reprinted with permission. Further reprint or distribution strictly prohibited without written permission of NAIC. Florida ranked as the most expensive state for homeowners insurance in 2012, with an average expenditure of $2,084.

16. Source: A.M. Best; Barclays research for estimates. Reserve Change P/C Insurance Loss Reserve Development, 1992 – 2017E* Reserve releases are expected to gradually taper off slowly, but will continue to benefit the bottom line and combined ratio through at least 2017

17. Profitability & Politics 17 12/01/09 - 9pm 17 How Is Profitability Affected by the President’s Political Party?

18. *Truman administration ROE of 6.97% based on 3 years only, 1950-52;. Source: Insurance Information Institute OVERALL RECORD: 1950-2014* Democrats 7.72% Republicans 7.85% Party of President has marginal bearing on profitability of P/C insurance industry P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Administration, 1950-2014*

19. BLUE = Democratic President RED = Republican President Truman Nixon/Ford Kennedy/ Johnson Eisenhower Carter Reagan/Bush I ClintonBush II P/C insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Party Affiliation, 1950- 2014 Obama. Source: Insurance Information Institute

20. Source: James Madison Institute, February 2008. ME NH MA CT PA WV VA NC LA TX OK NE ND MN MI IL IA ID WA OR AZ HI NJ RI C+ DE AL VT NY MD SC GA TN AL FL MS AR NM KY MO KS SD WI IN OH MT CA NV UT WY CO AK = A = B = C = D = F = NG Source: R Street Insurance Regulation Report Card, December 2015 B+ A B A- B+ B A A- C C B B D F C C+ A C- B D C C B C A B B A B B C+ B B B+ C B B A- C+ C C C D B D+ D D D D 2015 Property and Casualty Insurance Regulatory Report Card Not Graded: District of Columbia

21. CURRENT ISSUES IN AUTO INSURANCE 21 Price Optimization Attacks on Underwriting Criteria 12/01/09 - 9pm 21

22. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 22 Price Optimization: The Latest Significant Discussion of Price Optimization Issue in Recent Months 15 States Have Issued Bulletins Addressing Its Use (as of 12/1/15)  Requests for information in several other states Each State Defines Price Optimization Differently  At least 10 definitions from states; NAIC, vendors and others States’ Concerns Come Despite Absence of Any Discernable or Detectable Market Disruptions  Competition in auto insurance markets is intense, healthy and vigorous  More than 99% of drivers are insured through the voluntary market  Absence of consumer complaints  High degree of consumer satisfaction with auto insurers  Empowered Consumers: Have more tools available today than ever before to help them shop, collect and compare prices  Rates are not inadequate, excessive or unfairly discriminatory

23. I.I.I. Actions: NCOIL Hearing Testimony 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 23 Testified as industry’s witness at July 17 National Conference of Insurance Legislators’ hearing on Price Optimization; Worked very closely with PCI, AIA, NAMIC and independent companies.

24. Consumer Reports - #fixcarinsurance CR’s complaint  Analyzed 2 billion quotes  Price-setting is “shrouded in secrecy and rife with inequities” –Credit Scoring –Price Optimization  “Little transparency and not enough fairness” 12/01/09 - 9pm 24 September Consumer Reports, Released July 30.

25. Consumer Reports: I.I.I Response 12/01/09 - 9pm 25 Non-Driving Factors Proved Effective, Have Been Used for Decades –Gender –Territory –Age –Grades Hundreds of Class Plan Filings Annually Reconfirm Their Value

26. 26 Recent Attacks on the Insurance Industry Why Are Critics Suddenly More Aggressive?

27. CFA’s Conclusion: The ‘Widow Penalty’ 12/01/09 - 9pm 27 “a change in marital status from married to unmarried (through divorce or the death of a spouse) can cause a woman’s auto insurance premiums to rise as much as 226%—suggesting a ‘widow penalty’ that CFA director of insurance Bob Hunter said in a press teleconference Monday with executive director Stephen Brobeck is ‘immoral and should be stopped at once.’”

28. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 28 What’s Driving Attacks on the Insurance Industry? Recent Surge in Attacks is Associated with Income Inequality Debate in the United States  Attacks not confined to auto insurance (e.g., Workers Comp, Health)  Not confined to insurance (banks, lending in general, student loans) Politics, Economics, Regulation & Demographics Are Principal Drivers  CFA/CR and others (ProPublica) emboldened in current environment  Dodd-Frank Act stuffed with income inequality mandates and studies  FIO now studying auto insurance affordability; Wants to create index.  Definition of “fairness” is shifting CFA Has Been Able to Attack Certain Rating Factors Based on New Perception of Fairness (which is independent of actual risk)  EducationOccupationMarital StatusGender  AgeCredit ProfileLocation“Price Optimization” All of These Are Vulnerable to Attack in the Current Environment Infinite Number of Quotes Online  CFA Uses to Highlight Perceived Inequities

29. Handout for Government Affairs Staff Attending NAIC Meeting 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 29

30. INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY 30 Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing 12/01/09 - 9pm 30

31. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2015E 1 Due to persistently low interest rates, investment income fell in 2012, 2013 and 2014. 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends. *2015 figure is estimated based on annualized data through Q3. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. ($ Billions) Investment earnings are still below their 2007 pre-crisis peak

32. Distribution of Invested Assets: P/C Insurance Industry, 2013 Source: Insurance Information Institute Fact Book 2015, A.M. Best. Total Invested Assets = $1.5 Trillion $ Billions

33. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 33 U.S. Treasury Security Yields: A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2015* *Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through October 2015. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade. Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come. U.S. Treasury yields plunged to historic lows in 2013. Longer- term yields rebounded then sank fell again. 12/01/09 - 9pm 33

34. 12/01/09 - 9pm 34 Treasury Yield Curves: Pre-Crisis (July 2007) vs. June 2015 Treasury yield curve remains near its most depressed level in at least 45 years. Investment income is falling as a result. Even when the Fed begins to raise rates, yields unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon The Fed Is Actively is Signaling that it Is Likely to Begin Raising Rates Later in 2015 but Only Very Gradually Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Insurance Information Institute.

35. Net Yield on Property/Casualty Insurance Invested Assets, 2007–2015* The yield on invested assets remains low relative to pre-crisis yields. The Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in late 2015 has already pushed up some yields, albeit quite modestly. *2015 figure is the average of the four quarters ending in 2015:Q2. Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute (Percent) Book yield in 2015 is down 77 BP from pre-crisis levels

36. 12/01/09 - 9pm 36 Interest Rate Forecasts: 2015 – 2021 A full normalization of interest rates is unlikely until the 2020s, more than a decade after the onset of the financial crisis. Yield (%) Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (11/15 for 2015 and 2016; for 2017-2021 10/15 issue); Insurance Info. Institute. 3-Month Treasury 10-Year Treasury The end of the Fed’s QE program in 2014 and a stronger economy have yet to push longer-term yields much higher

37. 12/01/09 - 9pm 37 Annual Inflation Rates, (CPI-U, %), 1990–2016F Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 11/15 (forecasts). Slack in the U.S. economy and falling energy prices suggests that inflationary pressures should remain subdued for an extended period of times Annual Inflation Rates (%) Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the commodity bubble reduced inflationary pressures in 2009/10 Inflationary expectations have slipped (due in part to falling energy costs) allowing the Fed to maintain low interest rates

38. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 38 P/C Insurer Net Realized Capital Gains/Losses, 1990-2015:Q3* *Through Q3 2015 (preliminary) Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, SNL, Insurance Information Institute. Insurers Posted Net Realized Capital Gains in 2010 - 2014 Following Two Years of Realized Losses During the Financial Crisis. Realized Capital Losses Were a Primary Cause of 2008/2009’s Large Drop in Profits and ROE. ($ Billions) Realized capital gains rose sharply as equity markets rallied in 2013-14

39. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2015:Q2 1 Total Investment Gains Were Down Slightly in 2014 as Low Interest Rates Pressured Investment Income but Realized Capital Gains Remained Robust 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B; 2015 figure is through Q2 2015. Sources: ISO, SNL; Insurance Information Institute. ($ Billions) Investment gains in 2014 will rival the post-crisis high reached in 2013

40. *Through Dec. 1, 2015. Source: NYU Stern School of Business: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Ins. Info. Inst.http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Tech Bubble Implosion Financial Crisis Annual Return Energy Crisis 2015*: +2.1% S&P 500 Index Returns, 1950 – 2015* Fed Raises Rate Volatility is endemic to stock markets—and may be increasing—but there is no persistent downward trend over long periods of time

41. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 41 Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline *Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums **US domestic reinsurance only Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line* 12/01/09 - 9pm 41

42. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 42 Distribution of Bond Maturities, P/C Insurance Industry, 2003-2013 Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute. The main shift over these years has been from bonds with longer maturities to bonds with shorter maturities. The industry first trimmed its holdings of over-10-year bonds (from 24.6% in 2003 to 15.5% in 2012) and then trimmed bonds in the 5-10-year category (from 31.3% in 2003 to 27.6% in 2012). Falling average maturity of the P/C industry’s bond portfolio is contributing to a drop in investment income along with lower yields.

43. CAPITAL/CAPACITY 43 Capital Accumulation Has Multiple Impacts Alternative Capital Impacts? 12/01/09 - 9pm 43

44. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 44 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2015:Q2 Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. ($ Billions) 2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak Surplus as of 6/30/15 stood at a near-record high $672.4B 2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business. The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.73 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history. Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses The P/C insurance industry entered 2015 in very strong financial condition.

45. 45 Alternative Capital 12/01/09 - 9pm 45 New Investors Continue to Change the Reinsurance Landscape First I.I.I. White Paper on Issue Was Released in March 2015

46. Global Reinsurance Capital (Traditional and Alternative), 2006 - 2014 2014 data is as of June 30, 2014. Source: Aon Benfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute. Total reinsurance capital reached a record $570B in 2013, up 68% from 2008. But alternative capacity has grown 210% since 2008, to $50B. It has more than doubled in the past three years.

47. Alternative Capital as a Percentage of Traditional Global Reinsurance Capital 2014 data is as of June 30, 2014. Source: Aon Benfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute. Alternative Capital’s Share of Global Reinsurance Capital Has More Than Doubled Since 2010.

48. Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Outstanding: 1997-2015:Q2 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 48 Risk Capital Amount ($ Millions) Cat Bond Issuance Appears to Be Slowing Down in 2015 from 2014’s Record Pace. Lower Yields on Bonds Explain Some of the Contraction. Source: Guy Carpenter.

49. US Property CAT Rate on Line Index & Global Reinsurance ROE 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 49 Record traditional capacity, alternative capital and low CAT activity have pressured reinsurance prices; ROEs are own only very modestly Source: Barclays PLC from Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute. US Property CAT ROL Global Reinsurance ROE

50. M&A UPDATE: A PATH TO GROWTH? 50 Are Capital Accumulation, Drive for Growth and Scale Stimulating M&A Activity? 12/01/09 - 9pm 50

51. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 51 U.S. INSURANCE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS, P/C SECTOR, 1994-2014 (1) ($ Millions) (1) Includes transactions where a U.S. company was the acquirer and/or the target. Source: Conning proprietary database. M&A activity in the P/C sector was up sharply in 2014 but remains well below pre-crisis or late 1990s levels. M&A activity in 2015 will likely reach its highest level since 1998

52. 52 Growth Premium Growth Rates Vary Tremendously by State and Over Time, But… 12/01/09 - 9pm 52

53. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 53 Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, 1971—2015:Q3P (Percent) 1975-781984-872000-03 Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (1971-2013), ISO (2014-15). Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3- Year Decline Since 1930-33. 2015:Q3: 3.1% 2014: 4.1% 2013: 4.4% 2012: +4.2% Outlook 2016F: 4.0% 2017F: 3.8%

54. Note: Data through 1934 are based on stock companies only. Data include state funds beginning in 1998. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. Economic Shocks, Inflation: 1976: 22.0% Tort Crisis 1985/86: 22.2% Post-9/11 2002:15.3% Twin Recessions; Interest Rate Hikes 1987: 3.7% Great Recession: 2010: -4.9% ROE 2015E 4.1% NPW Premium Growth: Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1926 – 2015E Great Depression 1932: -15.9% max drop Post WW II Peak: 1947: 26.2% Start of WW II 1941: 15.8% 1950-70: Extended period of stability in growth and profitability. Low interest rates, low inflation, “Bureau” rate regulation all played a role 1970-90: Peak premium growth was much higher in this period while troughs were comparable. Rapid inflation, economic volatility, high interest rates, tort environment all played roles 1988-2000: Period of inter-cycle stability 2010- 20XX? Post- recession period of stable growth?

55. 55 Direct Premiums Written: Total P/C Percent Change by State, 2007-2014 Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. Top 25 States 12/01/09 - 9pm North Dakota was the country’s growth leader over the past 7 years with premiums written expanding by 70.7%, fueled by the state’s energy boom Growth Benchmarks: Total P/C US: 13.0%

56. 56 Direct Premiums Written: Total P/C Percent Change by State, 2007-2014 Bottom 25 States Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm Growth was negative in 4 states and DC between 2007 and 2014

57. 57 Direct Premiums Written: Comm. Lines Percent Change by State, 2007-2014 Sources: SNL Financial LLC.; Insurance Information Institute. Top 25 States 12/01/09 - 9pm 43 states showed commercial lines growth from 2007 through 2014 Growth Benchmarks: Commercial US: 5.9%

58. 58 Direct Premiums Written: Comm. Lines Percent Change by State, 2007-2014 Bottom 25 States Sources: SNL Financial LLC.; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm Nearly half the states have yet to see commercial lines premium volume return to pre-crisis levels

59. 59 Pricing Trends Personal Lines Pricing Is Up Survey Results Suggest Commercial Pricing Has Flattened Out 12/01/09 - 9pm 59

60. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 60 Monthly Change in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2015* *Percentage change from same month in prior year; through Sept. 2015; seasonally adjusted Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur roughly every 10 years (early 1990s, early 2000s and likely the early 2010s) “Hard” markets tend to occur during recessionary periods Pricing peak occurred in late 2010 at 5.3%, falling to 2.8% by Mar. 2012 Sept. 2015 reading of 5.5% is up from 4.2% a year earlier

61. Commercial Lines Rate Change by Month (vs. Year Earlier), July 2001 – Oct. 2015 12/01/09 - 9pm 61 SOURCE: MarketScout, Insurance Information Institute. Commercial Insurance Rate Changes Are Flat to Slightly Down Not Much of A Hard Market, By Historic Standards Oct. 2015: -2.0%

62. 12/01/09 - 9pm 62 Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2015:Q3 Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. Major Commercial Lines Renewals Were Mixed to Down in Q3:2015; EPL, D&O and Commercial Saw Gains Percentage Change (%) Commercial Auto rate increases are larger than any other line, followed by EPL and D&O Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.

63. 63 How the Risk Dollar is Spent (U.S. Firms with Revenues Under $1 Bill) Source : 2015 RIMS Benchmark Survey; Insurance Information Institute.

64. 64 Underwriting Performance 12/01/09 - 9pm 64

65. Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2017F Homeowners Performance in 2011/12 Impacted by Large Cat Losses. Extreme Regional Variation Can Be Expected Due to Local Catastrophe Loss Activity 12/01/09 - 9pm 65 Hurricane Ike Hurricane Sandy Record tornado activity Hurricane Andrew Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2014);Conning (2015F-2017F).

66. 66 Homeowners Multi-Peril Loss & ALAE Ratio, 2014: Highest 25 States Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute. MT had the worst loss ratio in 2014, followed by NE and SD…

67. 67 Homeowners Multi-Peril Loss & ALAE Ratio, 2014: Lowest 25 States and DC Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute. OK and FL had the best performances in 2014. Traditionally high cat-loss states did well last year due to unusually low cat activity

68. Florida Citizens Policy Count, 2003 – 2015* (Thousands) *As of October 6, 2015. All other figures are as of Dec. 31. Source: Florida Citizens https://www.citizensfla.com/about/bookofbusiness/; Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.).https://www.citizensfla.com/about/bookofbusiness/ A lack of major hurricanes, ample private sector/reinsurer capital and capital market interest—combined with structural changes to Citizens—have combined to take Citizens policy count and exposure to their lowest levels in many years Florida Citizen’s policy count is down by nearly 900,000 (61%) from its 2011 peak

69. Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2017F Private Passenger Auto Underwriitng Performance Is Exhibiting Remarkable Stability 12/01/09 - 9pm 69 Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2014); Conning (2015F – 2017F); Insurance Information Institute.

70. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 70 Collision Coverage: Severity & Frequency Trends Are Both Higher in 2015* Annual Change, 2005 through 2015* The Recession, High Fuel Prices Helped Temper Frequency and Severity, But this Trend Will Likely Be Reversed Based on Evidence from Past Recoveries *2015 figure is for the 4 quarters ending with 2015:Q2. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute

71. *2007-2012 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments. Source: A.M. Best (1990-2014); Conning (2015-16F) Insurance Information Institute. Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2016F* Commercial lines underwriting performance improved in 2013/14 but higher cats, diminishing prior year reserves and rising loss cost trends in some lines could push combined ratios higher 12/01/09 - 9pm 71

72. Commercial Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2017F Commercial Auto is Expected to Improve Only Slowly as Rate Gains Barely Offset Adverse Frequency and Severity Trends 12/01/09 - 9pm 72 Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2014);Conning (2015F-2017F); Insurance Information Institute.

73. Commercial Property Combined Ratio: 2007–2017F Commercial Property Underwriting Performance Has Been Volatile in Recent Years, Largely Due to Fluctuations in CAT Activity Source: Conning Research and Consulting. 12/01/09 - 9pm 73

74. General Liability Combined Ratio: 2005–2017F Commercial General Liability Underwriting Performance Has Been Volatile in Recent Years Source: Conning Research and Consulting. 12/01/09 - 9pm 74

75. Commercial Multi-Peril Combined Ratio: 1995–2016F Commercial Multi-Peril Underwriting Performance is Expected to Remains Stable in 2015 Assuming Normal Catastrophe Loss Activity *2015F-2016F figures are Conning figures for the combined liability and non-liability components. Sources: A.M. Best; Conning; Insurance Information Institute. 12/01/09 - 9pm 75

76. Inland Marine Combined Ratio: 2004–2017F Inland Marine Underwriting Performance Has Been Consistently Strong for Many Years Source: A.M. Best (2004-2014); Conning Research and Consulting (2015F-2017F). 12/01/09 - 9pm 76

77. Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2015F Workers Comp Results Began to Improve in 2012. Underwriting Results Deteriorated Markedly from 2007- 2010/11 and Were the Worst They Had Been in a Decade. Sources: A.M. Best (1994-2009); NCCI (2010-2014P) and are for private carriers only; Insurance Information Institute (2015F). 12/01/09 - 9pm 77 WC results have improved markedly since 2011

78. Workers Compensation Operating Environment 78 Workers Comp Results Have Improved Substantially in Recent Years 12/01/09 - 9pm 78

79. Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2015F Workers Comp Results Began to Improve in 2012. Underwriting Results Deteriorated Markedly from 2007- 2010/11 and Were the Worst They Had Been in a Decade. Sources: A.M. Best (1994-2009); NCCI (2010-2014P) and are for private carriers only; Insurance Information Institute (2015F). 12/01/09 - 9pm 79 WC results have improved markedly since 2011

80. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 80 Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries): Quarterly, 2005–2015:Q1 Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR Billions Prior Peak was 2008:Q3 at $6.54 trillion Recent trough (2009:Q1) was $6.23 trillion, down 5.3% from prior peak Growth rates 2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: 5.5% 2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 4.2% 2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: 2.5% 2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: 4.3% 2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: 4.4% 12/01/09 - 9pm 80 Latest (2015:Q1) was $7.66 trillion, a new peak--$1.34 trillion above 2009 trough

81. 12/01/09 - 9pm 81 Payroll Base* WC NWP Payroll vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums, 1990-2014P *Private employment; Shaded areas indicate recessions. WC premiums for 2014 are from NCCI. Sources: NBER (recessions); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR ; NCCI; I.I.I.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR Continued Payroll Growth and Rate Gains Suggest WC NWP Will Grow Again in 2015 7/90-3/913/01-11/01 12/07-6/09 $Billions WC premium volume dropped two years before the recession began WC net premiums written were down $14B or 29.3% to $33.8B in 2010 after peaking at $47.8B in 2005

82. Workers Compensation Premium: Fourth Consecutive Year of Increase Net Written Premium 82 $ Billions Calendar Year p Preliminary Source:NCCI from Annual Statement Data. Includes state insurance fund data for the following states: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT. Each calendar year total for State Funds includes all funds operating as a state fund that year. 12/01/09 - 9pm

83. 83 2014 Workers Compensation Direct Written Premium Growth, by State* PRIVATE CARRIERS: Overall 2014 Growth = +4.6% *Excludes monopolistic fund states (in gray): OH, ND, WA and WY. Source: NCCI. While growth rates varied widely, most states experienced positive growth in 2014

84. 12/01/09 - 9pm 84 2013 Workers Compensation Direct Written Premium Growth, by State* PRIVATE CARRIERS: Overall 2013 Growth = +5.4% *Excludes monopolistic fund states (in white): OH, ND, WA and WY. Source: NCCI. While growth rates varied widely, all states experienced positive growth in 2013

85. 12/01/09 - 9pm 85 Workers Compensation Components of Written Premium Change, 2013 to 2014 Written Premium Change from 2013 to 2014 Net Written Premium—Countrywide+4.6% Direct Written Premium—Countrywide+4.6% Direct Written Premium—NCCI States+4.5% Components of DWP Change for NCCI States Change in Carrier Estimated Payroll+4.7% Change in Bureau Loss Costs and Mix-1.4% Change in Carrier Discounting+0.4% Change in Other Factors+0.8% Combined Effect+4.5% Sources: Countrywide: Annual Statement data. NCCI States: Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services. Components: NCCI Policy data. Growth is now almost entirely payroll driven

86. WC Approved Changes in Bureau Premium Level (Rates/Loss Costs) 86 Percent Calendar Year Cumulative 1990–1993 +36.3% Cumulative 2000–2003 +17.1% Cumulative 2004–2011 -30.8% Cumulative 1994–1999 -27.8% *States approved through 4/24/15. Note: Bureau premium level changes are countrywide approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs and assigned risk rates as filed by applicable rating organization, relative to those previously approved. Source: NCCI. By Effective Date for Total Market 12/01/09 - 9pm Approved rates/loss costs are down for the first time since 2010 Cumulative 2011–2014 +11.8%

87. 12/01/09 - 9pm 87 WC Approved or Filed and Pending Change in NCCI Premium Level by State Latest Change for Voluntary Market *Excludes monopolistic fund states (in gray): OH, ND, WA and WY. Source: NCCI. While growth rates varied widely, most states experienced positive growth in 2014

88. 12/01/09 - 9pm 88 WC Approved or Filed and Pending Change in NCCI Premium Level by State Note: Premium level changes are approved changes are approved or filed and pending changes in advisory rates, loss costs and rating values as of 4/24/15 as filed by applicable rating organization, relative to those previously approved. SC is filed and pending. IN and NC are in cooperation with state rating bureaus. Source: NCCI. Latest Change for Voluntary Market Excludes Law-Only Filings The majority of states experienced decreases in rates/loss costs over

89. Workers Compensation Lost-Time Claim Frequency Declined in 2014 89 Percent Accident Year *Adjustments primarily due to significant audit activity. 2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014. Source: NCCI Financial Call data, developed to ultimate and adjusted to current wage an voluntary loss cost level; Excludes high deductible policies; 1994-2013: Based on data through 12/31/13. Data for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding WV. Frequency is the number of lost-time claims per $1M pure premium at current wage and voluntary loss cost level Cumulative Change of –51.1% (1994–2013 adj.)

90. Indemnity Claim Cost ($ 000s) Accident Year Workers Comp Indemnity Claim Costs: Modest Increase in 2014 Average indemnity costs per claim were up 4% in 2014 to $23,600, the largest increase since 2008 Average Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim +4% +1.9% Cumulative Change = 141% (1991-2014p) 2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014. 1991-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimate Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies.

91. WC Indemnity Severity vs. Wage Inflation, 1995 -2014p 2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014; 1991-2010: Based on data through 12/31/2010, developed to ultimate. Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services. Excludes the effects of deductible policies. CPS = Current Population Survey. Source: NCCI Annual Change 1994–2014 Indemnity Claim Sev.: +4.6 US Avg. Weekly Wage: +3.4% Indemnity severities usually outpace wage gains WC indemnity severity turned positive again in 2011

92. Workers Compensation Medical Severity: Moderate Increase in 2014 92 Accident Year Annual Change 1991–1993:+1.9% Annual Change 1994–2001:+8.9% Annual Change 2002–2010:+6.0% Average Medical Cost per Lost-Time Claim Medical Claim Cost ($000s) 2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014. 1991-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimate Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies. Cumulative Change = 263% (1991-2014p) Accident Year Medical severity for lost time claims was up 4% in 2014, the largest increase since 2009

93. 12/01/09 - 9pm 93 Workers Comp Change in Medical Severity by State, Avg. Annual Change, 2009-2013 Percent Source: NCCI’s Analysis of Frequency and Severity of Claims Across the Country as of 12/31/13 on ncci.com. Values reflect methodology and state data underlying the most recent rate/lost cost filing. TX changes are for the years 2010-2013. While growth rates varied widely, most states experienced positive growth in 2014 The change in lost-time medical severities from 2009-2013 ranged from a low of -6% to a high of 9%

94. 12/01/09 - 9pm 94 Annual Inflation Rates, (CPI-U, %), 1990–2016F Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 5/15 (forecasts). Slack in the U.S. economy and falling energy prices suggests that inflationary pressures should remain subdued for an extended period of times Annual Inflation Rates (%) Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the commodity bubble reduced inflationary pressures in 2009/10 Inflationary expectations have slipped (due in part to falling energy costs) allowing the Fed to maintain low interest rates

95. Workers Compensation Change in Medical Severity Comparison to Change in Medical Consumer Price Index (CPI) 95 Percent Change Year Average Annual Change: 1994—2014 Lost-Time Medical Severity: +6.4% US Medical CPI: +3.7% 2014p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014. Sources: Severity: 995-2013: Based on data through 12/31/2013, developed to ultimate Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high deductible policies. US Medical CPI: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

96. WC Medical Severity Generally Outpaces the Medical CPI Rate Sources: Med CPI from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, WC med severity from NCCI based on NCCI states. Average annual increase in WC medical severity from 1995 through 2014 was well above the medical CPI (6.4% vs. 3.7%), but the gap has narrowing. Lost-time medical severities appear to on the rise again.

97. Medical Cost Inflation vs. Overall CPI, 1995 – 2014* *July 2014 compared to July 2013. Sources: Med CPI from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, WC med severity from NCCI based on NCCI states. Average Annual Growth Average 1995 – 2013 Healthcare: 3.8% Total Nonfarm: 2.4% Though moderating, medical inflation will continue to exceed inflation in the overall economy

98. U.S. Health Care Expenditures, 1965–2022F U.S. health care expenditures have been on a relentless climb for most of the past half century, far outstripping population growth, inflation of GDP growth 12/01/09 - 9pm 98 From 1965 through 2013, US health care expenditures had increased by 69 fold. Population growth over the same period increased by a factor of just 1.6. By 2022, health spending will have increased 119 fold. $ Billions Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics- Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html accessed 3/14/14; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics- Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html

99. National Health Care Expenditures as a Share of GDP, 1965 – 2022F* Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics- Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html accessed 3/14/14; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics- Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html 1965 5.8% Health care expenditures as a share of GDP rose from 5.8% in 1965 to 18.0% in 2013 and are expected to reach 19.9% of GDP by 2022 % of GDP 2022 19.9% 1980: 9.2% 1990: 12.5% 2000: 13.8% 2010: 17.9% Since 2009, heath expenditures as a % of GDP have flattened out at about 18%--the question is why and will it last?

100. 100 Insured Catastrophe Losses 2013/14 and YTD 2015 Experienced Below Average CAT Activity After Very High CAT Losses in 2011/12 Winter Storm Losses Far Above Average in 2014 and 2015 12/01/09 - 9pm 100

101. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 101 U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses *Through 9/30/15 in 2015 dollars. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 2013/14 Were Welcome Respites from 2011/12, among the Costliest Years for Insured Disaster Losses in US History. Longer-term Trend is for more—not fewer—Costly Events 2012 was the 3 rd most expensive year ever for insured CAT losses $11.0B in insured CAT losses though 9/30/15 ($ Billions, $ 2014) 12/01/09 - 9pm 101

102. 12/01/09 - 9pm 102 Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2015F* *2010s represent 2010-2014. Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO (1960-2010); A.M. Best (2011-15E) Insurance Information Institute. The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio by Decade 1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 5.82* Combined Ratio Points Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses reached a record high in 2011

103. 12/01/09 - 9pm 103 Top 16 Most Costly Disasters in U.S. History—Katrina Still Ranks #1 (Insured Losses, 2014 Dollars, $ Billions) Storm Sandy in 2012 was the last mega-CAT to hit the US Includes Tuscaloosa, AL, tornado Includes Joplin, MO, tornado 12 of the 16 Most Expensive Events in US History Have Occurred Since 2004 Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2014 dollars using the CPI.

104. 12/01/09 - 9pm 104 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1995–2014 1 1.Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2014 dollars. 2.Excludes snow. 3.Does not include NFIP flood losses 4.Includes wildland fires 5.Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation. Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit. Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $161.2 Fires (4), $6.0 Events Involving Tornadoes (2), $154.9 Winter Storms, $26.9 Terrorism, $24.5 Geological Events, $0.5 Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $21.4 Other (5), $0.2 Wind losses are by far cause the most catastrophe losses, even if hurricanes/TS are excluded. Tornado share of CAT losses is rising Insured cat losses from 1995-2014 totaled $395.6B, an average of $19.8B per year or $1.65B per month Winter storm losses were much above average in 2014/15 are will push this share up

105. **Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI *Winter storms include winter damage, blizzard, snow storm and cold wave 105 Source: Property Claim Services, MR NatCatSERVICE. $ Billions, in 2014 Dollars 2015 insured winter storm losses totaled $2.3B, similar to 2014 and about double the long-run average Three of the four most costly years ever for insured losses from winter storms and damage occurred in the 1990s, led by the “Storm of the Century” in 1993. 5-year running average Winter Storm and Winter Damage Events in the US, 1980-2015 (2014 US$)

106. Loss Events in the US, 1980 – 2014 Overall and Insured Losses 106 Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* *Losses adjusted to inflation based on CPI. Overall losses totaled $25bn; Insured losses totaled $15.3bn Source: Property Claim Services, MR NatCatSERVICE. $ Billions 2015 First Half: $8.2 Billion Insured Losses $12.0 Overall Losses

107. 107 Number of National Flood Insurance Program Policies in Force at Year-End, 1980-2015* Source: National Flood Insurance Program. * As of July, 2015 ( millions ) The number of NFIP policies in force has plunged by 549,000 or 9.6% since 2009, even as coastal development surges and sea levels rise

108. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 108 Sources: CA Earthquake (WSJ, http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-pushes-homeowners-to-insure-against-earthquakes-1440980138 ); Flood and Renters (I.I.I. June 2015 Pulse Survey); Cyber (Advisen, 2015); Terrorism (Marsh Global Analytics, 2014 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report, April 2014; data for 2013); Pvt. Passenger Auto (Insurance Research Council, Uninsured Motorists, 2014 Edition, data for 2012); Home and Workers Comp (I.I.I. estimates); Insurance Information Institute research.http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-pushes-homeowners-to-insure-against-earthquakes-1440980138 Take-Up Rates for Various Types of Insurance in the U.S. Take-Up Rate Take-up rates vary widely by type of coverage

109. 109 The World is Warmer...With One Big Exception! HIGHLIGHTS 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21 st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record. 2015 will likely also be one of the warmest years on record as well Source: NOAA; Munich Re.

110. THE ECONOMY 110 The Strength of the Economy Will Greatly Influence Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines 12/01/09 - 9pm 110

111. 12/01/09 - 9pm 111 US Real GDP Growth* *Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 11/15; Insurance Information Institute. Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2016 as GDP Growth Continues at a Steady, Albeit Moderate Pace and Gradually Benefits the Economy Broadly Real GDP Growth (%) Recession began in in June 2009 The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8% Q1 2014/15 GDP data were hit hard by this year’s “Polar Vortex” and harsh winter

112. 112 Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2014*: Highest 25 States *Advance statistics Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Insurance Information Institute.U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis North Dakota was the economic growth juggernaut of the US in 2014—by far Only 7 states experienced growth in excess of 3% in 2014, which is a growth rate we would see nationally in a more typical recovery Growth Benchmarks: Real GDP US: 2.2%

113. 113 Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2014*: Lowest 25 States *Advance statistics Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Insurance Information Institute.US Bureau of Economic Analysis Mississippi and Alaska were the only states to shrink in 2014 Growth rates in 16 states were still below 1% in 2014

114. 12/01/09 - 9pm 114 US Unemployment Rate Forecast Rising unemployment eroded payrolls and WC’s exposure base. Unemployment peaked at 10% in late 2009. * = actual; = forecasts Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (11/15 edition); Insurance Information Institute. 2007:Q1 to 2016:Q4F* Unemployment forecasts have been revised modestly downwards. Optimistic scenarios put the unemployment as low as 5.0% by Q4 of 2015. Jobless figures have been revised downwards for 2015/16

115. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2015; Insurance Information Institute. Emerging economy growth rates are expected to ease to 4.0% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016 GDP Growth: Advanced & Emerging Economies vs. World, 1970-2016F Advanced economies are expected to grow at a modest pace of 2.0% in 2015 and to 2.2% in 2016. World output is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. The world economy shrank by 0.6% in 2009 amid the global financial crisis GDP Growth (%)

116. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 116 Non-Life Insurance: Global Real (Inflation Adjusted) Premium Growth, 2014 Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 4/2015. MarketLifeNon-LifeTotal Advanced3.81.82.9 Emerging6.98.07.4 World4.32.93.7 Real nonlife premium growth was stronger in the US in 2014 than in most of Europe

117. CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK 117 The Construction Sector Is Critical to the Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry 12/01/09 - 9pm 117

118. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 118 Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, 2003-2015* Billions of Dollars Private Construction Activity Is Moving in a Positive Direction though Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Peak; Residential Dominates $298.1 $15.0 $613.7 New Construction peaks at $911.8. in 2006 Trough in 2010 at $500.6B, after plunging 55.1% ($411.2B) 2015: Value of new pvt. construction hits $788.0B as of Aug. 2015, up 57.5% from the 2010 trough but still 13.5% below 2006 peak 12/01/09 - 9pm 118 $261.8 $238.8 $404.7 $383.3 *2015 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of August. Sources: US Department of Commerce http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html

119. 12/01/09 - 9pm 119 Value of Construction Put in Place, August 2015 vs. August 2014* Overall Construction Activity is Up Again After Languishing in Early 2015; State/Local Sector Government Sector May Be Recovering as Budget Woes Ease in Some Jurisdictions Growth (%) Private sector construction activity is up in both the residential and nonresidential segments *seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html Private: +16.5% Public: +7.0% Public sector construction activity is finally beginning to create less drag up after years of decline

120. 12/01/09 - 9pm 120 (Millions of Units) New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2021F Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/15); Insurance Information Institute. Insurers Are Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction: Construction Risk Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp Exposure New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began in 1959 Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, low mortgage rates and demographics should continue to stimulate new home construction for several more years

121. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 121 Rental-Occupied Housing Units as % of Total Occupied Units, Quarterly, 1990:Q1-2015:Q1 Sources: US Census Bureau, Residential Vacancies & Home Ownership in the First Quarter of 2015 (released April 28, 2015) and earlier issues; Insurance Information Institute. Next Census Bureau report to be released on July 28, 2015. Trough in 2004:Q2 and Q4 at 30.8% Since the Great Recession ended in June 2009, renters occupied 5.7 million more units (+15.6%). 12/01/09 - 9pm 121 Latest was 36.3% in 2015:Q1 Trend down began in 1994:Q3 from 36.2% in Q2 Increasing percent of owners Increasing percent of renters

122. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 122 I.I.I. Poll: Renter’s Insurance Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey. The Percentage of Renters Who Have Renters Insurance Has Been Rising Since 2011. Q. Do you have renters insurance? 1 1 Asked of those who rent their home. Americans are increasingly choosing to rent, but are slow to understand the need to insure, exacerbating the underinsurance gap

123. CYBER RISK & CYBER INSURANCE 123 Cyber Risk is a Rapidly Emerging Exposure for Businesses Large and Small in Every Industry 12/01/09 - 9pm 123

124. Data Breaches 2005-2015, by Number of Breaches and Records Exposed # Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed *Figures as of June 30, 2015, from the Identity Theft Resource Center, http://www.idtheftcenter.org/images/breach/ITRCBreachReport2015.pdf The total number of data breaches (+27.5%) hit a record high of 783 in 2014, exposing 85.6 million records. Through June 30, this year has seen 117.6 million records exposed in 400 breaches.* Millions

125. 125 Estimated Cyber Insurance Premiums Written, 2014 – 2020F Cyber insurance premiums written could more than triple to $7 billion by 2020 Source: Advisen (2014 est.); PwC (2015, 2020); Insurance Information Institute. $ Billions

126. 126 US: External Cyber Crime Costs: Fiscal Year 2014 * Other costs include direct and indirect costs that could not be allocated to a main external cost category Source: 2014 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute. Information theft (40%) and business disruption or lost productivity (38%) account for the majority of external costs due to cyber crime. Information theft Equipment damages Other costs* Revenue loss Business disruption

127. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Data/Privacy Breach: Many Potential Costs Can Be Insured Source: Zurich Insurance; Insurance Information Institute Data Breach Event Costs of notifying affecting individuals Defense and settlement costs Lost customers and damaged reputation Cyber extortion payments Business Income Loss Regulatory fines at home & abroad Costs of notifying regulatory authorities Forensic costs to discover cause 127

128. Source: Insurance Information Institute research. The Three Basic Elements of Cyber Coverage: Prevention, Transfer, Response Loss Prevention Post-Breach Response (Insurable) Loss Transfer (Insurance) Cyber risk management today involves three essential components, each designed to reduce, mitigate or avoid loss. An increasing number of cyber risk products offered by insurers today provide all three. 128

129. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 129 I.I.I.’s New Cyber Risk Report (Oct. 2015): Cyber Risks Threat and Opportunity I.I.I.’s 3 rd report on cyber risk: Cyber Risk: Threat and Opportunity Provides information on cyber threats and insurance market solutions Global cyber risk overview Quantification of threats by type and industry Cyber security and cost of attacks Cyber terrorism Cyber liability Insurance market for cyber risk http://www.iii.org/white-paper/cyber-risks- threat-and-opportunities-100715

130. 130 Marsh: Percentage of U.S. Companies Purchasing Cyber Insurance Increased in 2014 *Take-up rate refers to the overall percentage of clients that purchased standalone cyber insurance. Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015 Ever larger numbers of insureds seek financial protection via cyber insurance. The percentage of U.S. companies buying cyber insurance rose to 16 percent in 2014.

131. 131 Marsh: Total Limits Purchased, By Industry – Cyber Liability, All Revenue Size Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015 Average limits purchased for cyber risk rose to $12.8 million for all industries and all company sizes in 2014. Power and utility companies witnessed the sharpest percentage increase in average limits, at 59 percent. ($ Millions)

132. 132 Marsh: Total Limits Purchased, By Industry – Cyber Liability, Revenue $1 Billion+ Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015 Among larger companies, average cyber insurance limits purchased increased by 22 percent to $34.1 million in 2014, from $27.8 million in 2013. ($ Millions)

133. 133 Cyber Liability: Historical Rate (price per million) Changes Cyber insurance premiums were generally volatile in 2014 due to increased frequency and severity of losses. Average rate increases at renewal for both primary layers and total programs were lower in Q4 2014 than in Q1. Source: Benchmarking Trends: As Cyber Concerns Broaden, Insurance Purchases Rise, Marsh Risk Management Research Briefing, March 2015

134. 134 INDUSTRY DISRUPTORS Technology, Society and the Economy Are All Changing at a Rapid Pace Will Insurers Keep Pace? 12/01/09 - 9pm 134

135. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 135 Media is Obsessed with Driverless Vehicles: Often Predicting the Demise of Auto Insurance By 2035, it is estimated that 25% of new vehicle sales could be fully autonomous models Source: Boston Consulting Group. Questions Are auto insurers monitoring these trends? How are they reacting? Will Google take over the industry? Will the number of auto insurers shrink? How will liability shift?

136. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 136 Personal Lines Distribution Channels, Direct vs. Independent Agents, 1972-2014 Source: Insurance Information Institute; based on data from Conning and A.M. Best. Independent agents have lost significant personal lines market share since the early 1970s. Although the trend slowed from 2000-2007, it may be accelerating again.

137. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 137 On-Demand/Sharing/Peer-to-Peer Economy Impacts Many Lines of Insurance The “On-Demand” Economy is or will impact many segments of the economy important to P/C insurers  Auto (personal and commercial)  Homeowners/Renters  Many Liability Coverages  Professional Liability  Workers Comp Many unanswered insurance questions Insurance solutions are increasingly available to fill the many insurance gaps that arise

138. 138 Labor on Demand: Huge Implications for the US Economy, Workers & Insurers Will YOUR job be reduced to an app?

139. *From publically available sources as of June 2, 2015. Source: ISO/Verisk. TNC Ridesharing Arrangements: Insurance Applicability 139 The concern was that TNCs were seeking to offload risk on to personal auto insurers. An increasing number of personal auto insurers have developed solutions to ensure that coverage gaps are minimized

140. Source: ISO. Ridesharing Regulation/Legislation and Status of ISO Filings as of 9/30/15 140 Status of ISO Filings Status Ride Sharing Legislation/Regulation

141. . *As of Oct. 6, 2015. Source: ISO/Verisk. Homesharing: ISO’s Proposed Changes* 141

142. 142 Send in the Drones: Potential Rapid Adoption in Industry; Media Loves It Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology is seeing rapid adoption rate in many industries, including insurance ~700,000 drones in US by year-end FAA granting Section 333 exemptions for commercial use and testing of UAS FAA will require most drones to be registered by year-end 2015. At least 5 insurers have received permission to test Wide variety of applications: claims, pre- event property inspections… Insurers partnering with construction industry to guide R&D and regulation of UAV use via Property Drone Consortium: www.propertydrone.org www.propertydrone.org

143. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 143 Telematics for Your Home: The Internet of Things The home is the next frontier for telematics Rapidly becoming a crowded space How and with whom will insurers partner? Can control increasing array of household systems remotely  Heat, A/C  Fire, CO detection  Security Systems  Cameras/Monitors  Appliances  Lighting Technology is adaptive  Uses sensors and algorithms to learn about you

144. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 144 Partnerships with Insurers: Selling Safety and Savings Simultaneously Source: https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ accessed 11/1/15; Insurance Information Institute research.https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ Nest is actively seeking to partner with insurers. As of Nov. 1, 2015, Nest listed 2 insurance partners offering discounts in a number of states: American Family (MN) and Liberty Mutual (AL, CO, DE, IL, KY, ME, MN, PA, UT and WI)

145. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 145 Partnerships with Insurers Source: https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ accessed 11/1/15; Insurance Information Institute research.https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ Nest is selling its products via insurance partners

146. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 146 Partnerships with Insurers Source: https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ accessed 11/1/15; Insurance Information Institute research.https://nest.com/insurance-partners/ Nest is selling its products via insurance partners

147. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 147 Partnerships with Insurers: Information Collected, Addressing Privacy Concerns Source: https://nest.com/support/article/When-I-enroll-in-Safety-Rewards-what-kind-of-data-is-shared-with- my-insurance-company accessed 11/1/15; Insurance Information Institute research.https://nest.com/support/article/When-I-enroll-in-Safety-Rewards-what-kind-of-data-is-shared-with- my-insurance-company Privacy, control of data concerns get significant attention

148. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 148 Partnerships with Insurers: Information Collected, Addressing Privacy Concerns Source: https://nest.com/support/article/When-I-enroll-in-Safety-Rewards-what-kind-of-data-is-shared-with- my-insurance-company accessed 11/1/15; Insurance Information Institute research.https://nest.com/support/article/When-I-enroll-in-Safety-Rewards-what-kind-of-data-is-shared-with- my-insurance-company Privacy, control and security of data get significant attention

149. Shifting Legal Liability & Tort Environment 149 Will the Tort Pendulum Swing Against Insurers? 12/01/09 - 9pm 149

150. 150 Average Personal Injury Jury Award, 2009 – 2013 Average awards in Personal Injury cases have increased by more than 1/3 in recent years Source: Current Award Trends in Personal Injury, 54 th Edition; Insurance Information Institute.

151. Business Leaders Ranking of Liability Systems in 2015 Best States 1.Delaware 2.Vermont 3.Nebraska 4.Iowa 5.New Hampshire 6.Idaho 7.North Carolina 8.Wyoming 9.South Dakota 10.Utah Worst States 41.Arkansas 42.Missouri 43.Mississippi 44.Florida 45.New Mexico 46.Alabama 47.California 48.Illinois 49.Louisiana 50.West Virginia Source: US Chamber of Commerce 2015 State Liability Systems Ranking Study; Insurance Info. Institute. New in 2015 Vermont New Hampshire North Carolina South Dakota Drop-offs Minnesota Kansas Virginia North Dakota Newly Notorious Arkansas Missouri Rising Above Oklahoma Montana 151

152. 12/01/09 - 9pm 152 The Nation’s Judicial “Hellholes”: 2014/2015 Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute West Virginia Illinois Madison County New York City Asbestos Litigation Watch List Atlantic County, New Jersey Mississippi Delta Montana Nevada Newport News, Virginia Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Dishonorable Mention AL Supreme Court PA Supreme Court California Florida Volkswagen: Massive tort actions, fines, penalties certain. Are others vulnerable? Issue of cheating on environmental standards and liability looms large. Assignment of Benefits issue looms large in FL

153. www.iii.org Thank you for your time and your attention! Twitter: twitter.com/bob_Hartwig Download at www.iii.org/presentationswww.iii.org/presentations Insurance Information Institute Online: 12/01/09 - 9pm 153