1. Republic Petroleum Refinery Framing Analysis PADD – III | Light Crude New Facility October 25, 2015 Prepared by Oil Solutions International

2. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM 1. Likely changes to US crude oil export policy 2. Future US and global demand in the near and mid-term 3. 15-year pro-forma for cracking and coking refinery configurations S COPE

3. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM 1.In the short-term, the WTI and Brent price spread is NOT likely to motivate a lifting of the export ban. 2.In the long term, domestic demand is likely to decrease, while demand in developing countries will increase substantially. 3.Best case for Republic Petroleum: a.E XPORT B AN REMAINS IN PLACE b.O IL PRICES REMAIN LOW c.HCU REFINERY IS CONSTRUCTED S UMMARY OF C ONCLUSIONS

4. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM 1.1975 E XPORT B AN 2.D OMESTIC O VERSUPPLY OF L IGHT S WEET C RUDE 3.B RENT – WTI PRICE SPREAD 4.G ULF C OAST REFINERY CAPACITY 5.F UTURE CLIMATE REGULATION B ACKGROUND

5. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM 1.Four refinery configurations (HCU, FCCU, Coking, RFCC) 2.Fifteen-year return on initial investment 3.10% discount rate applied 4.Three oil price scenarios 5.Two export policy scenarios M ETHODOLOGY

6. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Two Export Ban alternatives divided into 24 scenarios Scenario 1: Export Ban Remains Cracking: FCCU High Price (1A) Baseline Price (1B) Low Price (1C) Cracking: HCU High Price (1D) Baseline Price (1E) Low Price (1F) Coking Refinery High Price (1G) Baseline Price (1H) Low Price (1I) Coking: RFCC High Price (1J) Baseline Price (1K) Low Price (1L) Scenario 2: Export Ban is Lifted Cracking: FCCU High Price (2A) Baseline Price (2B) Low Price (2C) Cracking: HCU High Price (2D) Baseline Price (2E) Low Price (2F) Coking Refinery High Price (2G) Baseline Price (2H) Low Price (2I) Coking: RFCC High Price (2J) Baseline Price (2K) Low Price (2L) M ETHODOLOGY

7. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM R ESULTS

8. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM If export ban remains in place, low oil prices present an opportunity R ESULTS

9. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM RFCC HCU FCCU Coking -10000 100005000 -5000 0 Net Profit Export Ban Stays Export Ban Lifted If export ban is lifted, no refinery configuration is likely to be profitable R ESULTS

10. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Will the WTI-Brent price spread motivate a lifting of the export ban? R ESULTS

11. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM As expected, more risk = greater opportunity for returns Risk and return with & without the export ban across oil prices Export Ban Lifted Probability Density R ESULTS

12. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Sensitivity of refinery configurations to changes in yield R ESULTS

13. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM R ESULTS Net present value with low oil prices and ban in place

14. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Sensitivity of ROI vs. transportation Cost Increase for HCU under export ban in place R ESULTS

15. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Assuming ban stays in place, compare refinery returns to market returns R ESULTS 15 yr Return on Investment (%) 7.5 -5.0 -2.5 2.5 0 5.0 RFCC HCU FCCUCoking S&P 500 S&P, average annual returns including re-investment, 1998-2012

16. 1.Lifting of the export ban would significantly impact returns from a refinery investment. 2.HCU configuration was robust to fluctuations in oil price 3.No configuration was robust to a lifting of the export ban 4.Best case scenario for Republic Petroleum: a.E XPORT BAN REMAINS IN PLACE b.O IL PRICES REMAIN LOW c.HCU REFINERY IS CONSTRUCTED C ONCLUSIONS INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

17. D ISCUSSION INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

18. Thank You! OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

19. PHASEHUB ACTIVITY DESIGNUser groups participate in IDP PRE-OCCUPANCYOn-site trainings & “Energy Champions” COMMISSIONINGWritten manuals for operators and users POST-OCCUPANCY Ongoing monitoring, surveys, trainings, and adjustments PUBLIC OUTREACH Use of HUB facilities as training & demonstration venue PLACEHOLDER TEXT INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

20. ENERGY BASELINE / PRE- CONSTRUCTION PLANNING HUB-LED IDP FINANCING GUIDANCE EDUCATION PROGRAM & POST-OCCUPANCY FOLLOW-THROUGH INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

21. Local Regional HUB expansion INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

22. U.S. R EFINERY C APACITY & O UTPUT INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

23. U.S. R EFINERY C APACITY & O UTPUT INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

24. U.S. R EFINERY C APACITY & O UTPUT INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

25. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM Standard and Poor Comparison

26. INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM 1.Placeholder Text M ETHODOLOGY

27. U.S. R EFINERY C APACITY & O UTPUT INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM

28. Conclusions Placeholder Text C ONCLUSIONS INTRODUCTION SUMMARY BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION OSI | OIL SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONALFRAMING ANALYSIS | REPUBLIC PETROLUEM