1. Class Project Report, May 2004 ME/ChE 449 Sustainable Air Quality Sustainability Transition, 2000-2050: Possible role of the Hydrogen Economy By Andrew McFarland, Brandon Gustafson, Carol Timson Instructor Rudolf B. Husar Washington University, St. Louis, MO

2. Sustainable Development (NAS) A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. It includes differing views on what should be developed, what should be sustained and over what time period. Human activities exert pressures, such as burning fossil fuels that alter the state of environment, such air quality. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) feedback loop system. These three classes of variables can be measured using data that are collected for administrative purposes. Combining these data with a simple but flexible scenario captures a fundamental idea of sustainable development The NAS (1999) describes SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”. During the ‘journey’, the pathways of a transition to sustainability have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively at many scales and in many places.

3. Slide on Hydrogen Economy

4. Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil GasElectric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) iFuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop., P Metals Carbon a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- jjiiij Consumption of Goods and Energy:GE =  a i P Fuels and Materials Flow:FM =   a i b ij P Emission of Pollutants:EM =    a i b ij c jk P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM) The causal driver to pollutant emissions is the human population  These emissions result from energy and material processes, which are driven by economic sectors The causal factors of anthropogenic Sox emissions can be traced by this chart

5. Trend of Indicators SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

6. US Population Trends In the 20th century, the US population has grown from 80 to 300 million In As the birth and migration rates are greater than the death rate, the US population will continue to increase in the future However, these rates are expected to stabilize over the next 50 years –Birth rate ~ 1.5%/year –Death rate ~ 1%/year –Migration rate ~ 0.25%/year

7. Regional Population Projections *Regions split according to geographic and state growth trends

8. National Income by Industry Group/Person The income of the res/comm sector has grown a the fastest rate, 10-fold since 1930, more than doubling since 1970. The industrial and transportation sectors have grown < 30% since the 1950s. It appears that the industrial and transportation sectors will remain fairly steady over the next 20 years, while the res/com curve will continue its rise before slowly leveling. Fraction of Total Income Trend by Ind. Group 1970 = 1