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© 2014 Minitab, Inc. Justin Callahan Commercial Sales Representative.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2014 Minitab, Inc. Justin Callahan Commercial Sales Representative."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Justin Callahan jcallahan@minitab.com Commercial Sales Representative

2 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Top Enhancements What is Monte Carlo simulation?

3 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Uses repeated random sampling to generate simulated data for a given mathematical model: Variation exists. Let’s use the variability in our X’s to get a good picture of Y.

4 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. When Is Monte Carlo Used Simulated data is routinely used in situations where resources are limited or gathering data would be too expensive or impractical. Using Monte Carlo simulation and Devize, you can: ► Simulate the range of possible outcomes ► Understand the variability and identify problems in a process or system ► Find a solution to reduce defects

5 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Top Enhancements Devize

6 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. 3 Primary Tools Devize provides 3 primary tools to help engineers characterize, understand, and optimize product results: ► Monte Carlo simulation ► Parameter Optimization ► Sensitivity Analysis

7 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Top Enhancements Example

8 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Example

9 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Strength = 9.65 + 0.003 Temp + 3.99 Time - 0.000259 Temp*Time

10 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. ►http://devize.minitab.com

11 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Top Enhancements Monte Carlo Simulation

12 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Monte Carlo Simulation ► Uses the y=f(x) equation and distribution of the X’s to simulate product results ► Considers uncertainty of X’s to produce a realistic view of Y ► Uses the simulated results and spec limits to calculate %Out of Spec and Ppk

13 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Enter X’s, Equation, Specs Normal, triangular, uniform and Weibull distributions Max of 20 X’s and 9 Y’s Max ‘Number of Simulations” is 1 million

14 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. (Optional) ‘Use Data to Decide’ for Parameters

15 © 2014 Minitab, Inc.

16 Top Enhancements Parameter Optimization

17 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Parameter Optimization ► Next step when %Out of Spec and Ppk are unacceptable ► Determines optimal input (X) settings that produce acceptable output (Y) values ► Automatically simulates results based on recommended X values

18 © 2014 Minitab, Inc.

19 Specify Goal, Search Ranges

20 © 2014 Minitab, Inc.

21 Top Enhancements Sensitivity Analysis

22 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Sensitivity Analysis ► Next step when %Out of Spec and Ppk are unacceptable ► Illustrates which X’s are critical to control and which are not ► Quantifies the impact of reducing variability for a given X

23 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Select a StdDev Reduction %

24 © 2014 Minitab, Inc.

25 Top Enhancements Compare

26 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Illustrate Improvement Potential

27 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Export

28 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. To try, visit minitab.com/devize

29 © 2014 Minitab, Inc. Top Enhancements Questions? Jon Schultz jschultz@minitab.com

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