1. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ■ describe how characteristics of debt securities cause their yields to vary ■ demonstrate how to estimate the appropriate yield for any particular debt security ■ explain the theories behind the term structure of interest rates (relationship between the term to maturity and the yield of securities) 1 Chapter Objectives 3 Structure of Interest Rates

2. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary The yields on debt securities are affected by: Credit (default) risk Liquidity Tax status Term to maturity 2

3. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Credit (default) Risk  Investors must consider the creditworthiness of the security issuer.  All else being equal, securities with a higher degree of default risk must offer higher yields.  Especially relevant for longer term securities. 3

4. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Credit (default) Risk (cont.) In general, securities with a higher degree of default risk offer higher yields.  Rating Agencies - Rating agencies charge the issuers of debt securities a fee for assessing default risk. (Exhibit 3.1).  Accuracy of Credit Ratings - The ratings issued by the agencies are useful indicators of default risk but they are opinions, not guarantees.  Oversight of Credit Rating Agencies - The Financial Reform Act of 2010 established an Office of Credit Ratings within the Securities and Exchange Commission in order to regulate credit rating agencies. Rating agencies must establish internal controls. 4

5. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.1 Rating Classification by Rating Agencies 5

6. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Liquidity  The lower a security’s liquidity, the higher the yield preferred by an investor.  Debt securities with a short-term maturity or an active secondary market have greater liquidity. 6

7. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Tax Status (Exhibit 3.2)  Investors are more concerned with after-tax income.  Taxable securities must offer a higher before-tax yield. 7

8. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.2 After-Tax Yields Based on Various Tax Rates and Before-Tax Yields 8

9. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Tax Status (cont.)  Computing the Equivalent Before-Tax Yield: = after-tax yield = before-tax yield = Investor’s marginal tax rate 9

10. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Why Debt Security Yields Vary Term to Maturity (Exhibit 3.3)  Maturity dates will differ between debt securities.  The term structure of interest rates defines the relationship between term to maturity and the annualized yield. 10

11. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.3 Example of Relationship between Maturity and Yield of Treasury Securities (as of March 2013) 11

12. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Explaining Actual Yield Differentials  Small yield differentials can be relevant  The yield differential is the difference between the yield offered on a security and the yield on the risk-free rate.  They are sometimes measured in basis points where 1bp = 0.01% 12

13. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Explaining Actual Yield Differentials Yield Differentials on Money Market Securities  Yields on commercial paper and negotiable CDs are only slightly higher than T-bill rates to compensate for lower liquidity and higher default risk.  Market forces cause the yields on all securities to move in the same direction. 13

14. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Explaining Actual Yield Differentials Yield Differentials on Capital Market Securities  Treasury bonds have the lowest yield because of their low default risk and high liquidity. 14

15. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Estimating the Appropriate Yield Y n = R f,n + DP + LP + TA where: Y n =yield of an n-day debt security R f,n =yield of an n-day Treasury (risk-free) security DP=default premium to compensate for credit risk LP=liquidity premium to compensate for less liquidity TA=adjustment due to difference in tax status 15

16. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. A Closer Look at the Term Structure Pure Expectations Theory: Term structure reflected in the shape of the yield curve is determined solely by the expectations of interest rates.  Impact of an Expected Increase in Rates leads to an upward sloping yield curve  Impact of an expected Decline in Rates leads to a downward sloping yield curve. 16

17. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. A Closer Look at the Term Structure Liquidity Premium Theory: Investors prefer short-term liquid securities but will be willing to invest in long-term securities if compensated with a premium for lower liquidity. (Exhibit 3.6) 17

18. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.6 Impact of Liquidity Premium on the Yield Curve under Three Different Scenarios 18

19. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. A Closer Look at the Term Structure Segmented Markets Theory: Investors choose securities with maturities that satisfy their forecasted cash needs. 19

20. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Integrating the Theories of the Term Structure  If we assume the following conditions:  Investors and borrowers currently expect interest rates to rise. (expectation)  Most borrowers need long-term funds, while most investors have only short-term funds to invest.(segment)  Investors prefer more liquidity to less. (liquidity)  Then all three conditions place upward pressure on long-term yields relative to short term yields leading to upward sloping yield curve. (Exhibit 3.7) 20

21. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.7 Effect of Conditions in Example of Yield Curve 21

22. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Integrating the Theories of the Term Structure Use of the Term Structure  Forecasting Interest Rates  The shape of the yield curve can be used to assess the general expectations of investors and borrowers about future interest rates.  The curve’s shape should provide a reasonable indication (especially once the liquidity premium effect is accounted for) of the market’s expectations about future interest rates.  Forecasting Recessions - Some analysts believe that flat or inverted yield curves indicate a recession in the near future. 22

23. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Integrating the Theories of the Term Structure Use of the Term Structure (cont.)  Making Investment Decisions - If the yield curve is upward sloping, some investors may attempt to benefit from the higher yields on longer-term securities even though they have funds to invest for only a short period of time.  Making Decisions about Financing - Firms can estimate the rates to be paid on bonds with different maturities. This may enable them to determine the maturity of the bonds they issue. 23

24. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Exhibit 3.9 Yield Curves at Various Points in Time 24

25. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Spot rate vs. Forward rate  1. Spot rate a rate quoted at current time  2. Forward rate a rate to be quoted at some point in the future 25

26. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. How to find Forward rate? 1. If you deposit for 1-year, the annual interest rate is 8%. 2. If you deposit for 2-years, the annual interest rate is 9%. 3. One year from now, what the annual interest rate should be for deposits of 1 year? 26

27. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Another Example Two-year maturity bonds offer yield-to-maturity of 6%, and three-year bonds have yields of 7%. What is the forward rate for the third year? Verify that the forward rate is 9.03% 27

28. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Formula 1. In general, we obtain the forward rate by equating the return on an n-period zero- coupon bond with that of an (n – 1)-period zero-coupon bond rolled over into a one-year bond in year n: (1 + y n ) n = (1 + y n-1 ) n-1 (1 + f n ) 28

29. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. More Practice 29

30. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. A Closer Look at the Term Structure Research on the Term Structure Theories  Interest rate expectations have a strong influence on the term structure of interest rates.  However, the forward rate derived from a yield curve does not accurately predict future interest rates, and this suggests that other factors may be relevant.  General Research Implications - Although the results differ, there is evidence that expectations, liquidity premium, and segmented markets theories all have some validity. 30

31. © 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Homework Assignment 3 Chapter 3: Problems 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 31