1. Polar Winds from Satellite Imagers and Sounders MODIS Winds Group: Paul Menzel 1, Jeffrey Key 1, David Santek 2, Christopher Velden 2, Lars Peter Riishojgaard 3 Sounder Winds Group: Cheng-Zhi Zou 1, Mark DeMaria 1, Jennifer Francis 4, and Mike Van Woert 1 1 Office of Research and Applications, NOAA/NESDIS 2 Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), Madison 3 NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office 4 Rutgers University

2. Pierre Morel and Verner Suomi introduced WV remote sensing

3. Water Vapor Image from 1978 changed the way Earth is viewed

4. An example Meteosat wind set from FGGE helped define atmospheric motions, but not in polar regions

5. Geostationary Satellite-Derived Winds Tracking cloud/water vapor features in time provides horizontal advection speed Brightness temperatures place features in three coarse layers (0- 400, 400-700, and 700-1000mb) 3-hourly product overlaid upon continuous IR loop “Satellite Focus” unites an ever growing compilation of new technology in a common theater, providing users with a one-stop satellite shop. “Where you are, what you need, when you need it.”

6. MODIS 1 km WV images first ever

7. North Atlantic Europe Pre ops tests in 2002 500 hPa geo potential Routine production of MODIS WV winds in 2003

8. Forecast Benefits

9. More Polar Obs Improve Mid-latitude Forecasts Propagation of analysis errors from the poles to the midlatitudes in 500 hPa geopotential height for 1 to 5 day forecasts. Solid blue shows geopotential with MODIS winds; dashed black is Control without MODIS winds. Solid red show positive differences (MODIS minus CTL), and thick dashed blue show negative differences. 20 meter positive differences near the Beaufort Sea (north of Alaska) move southward. The 5-day MODIS forecast verifies better. * NWP depends on obs * polar winds fill obs void (offset Siberian raob loss) * during hostility non-US obs may be withheld * improved fcsts of weather affects boating (fishing), shipping routes, aircraft refueling, evacuations

10. Error Propagation to the Midlatitudes: Snowfall Accumulated snowfall forecasts, in mm water equivalent, over Alaska on 03/20/02 (end of animation period). At right is the snowfall from the 5-day CTL forecast, below left is the snowfall from the 5-day MODIS forecast, below right is the snowfall from a 12-hr forecast for verification. The CTL run produced spurious snowfall in southern Alaska. CTL MODIS “TRUTH”

11. NWP Model Overlays Fires Around Baghdad

12. MODIS winds filling observing system void Being used operationally since Jan 2003

13. MODIS Winds in NWP Current Users: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Lueder von Bremen and Jean-Noel Thepaut) - Using winds in operational system. NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO; Lars Peter Riishojgaard and Yanqiu Zhu) - Using winds in operational system. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA; Masahiro Kazumori) – Using winds in operational system (Arctic only) Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC; Real Sarrazin) – Using winds in operational system. US Navy, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC; Pat Pauley and Chuck Skupniewicz) – Using winds in operational system. UK Met Office (Mary Forsythe and Howard Berger) – Using winds in operational system. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/EMC; John LeMarshall, Jim Jung, Tom Zapotocny) - Engaged in impact studies. Plan to go operational in June 2005. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD; Alexander Cress) – Using winds in experimental system NCAR Antarctic Mesoscale Model (AMPS; Dale Barker) – Beginning to test the winds over Antarctica. Other (incomplete information): Chinese meteorological agency, one or more countries involved in HIRLAM.

14. 7 th Int. Winds Workshop Jun 2004Alexander Cress 500 hPa Geopotential Northern Hemisphere MODIS WV winds mitigate bust VV= +60h

15. USA 5 day fcst very sensitive to northern latitudes Figure courtesy of Rolf Langland, NRL Monterey

16. Figure courtesy of Lars Peter Riishojgaard, GSFC Busts over North America sometimes (often) have high-latitude origins h500 error in four models on 28 Jun 04

17. Forecast Busts (GMAO) Arctic Southern Hemisphere Extratropics Blue is forecast with MODIS winds; red is control run

18. Impact of MODIS AMVs on the operational GFS forecast at 500hPa (60°S - 90°S). (1 Jan – 15 Feb 2004); the pink (dashed) curve shows the ACC with (without) MODIS AMVs JCSDA showing positive impact especially mitigating busts Operational NCEP utilization planned early 2005

19. JCSDA showing positive impact especially mitigating busts Operational NCEP utilization planned early 2005

20. 3D display of impact of polar winds on GFS 84 hr forecast of 400 hPa heights

21. Forecast (days) RMS (m/s) Impact of MODIS Winds on Hurricane Track Forecasts

22. 13.2 43.666.594.9102.8157.1227.9301.1Cntrl 11.434.860.482.689.0135.3183.0252.0Cntrl + MODIS 7468646152463934Cases (#) 00-h12-h24-h36-h48-h72-h96-h120-hTime AVERAGE HURRICANE TRACK ERRORS (NM) 48.9 31.044.836.539.639.128.229.4Cntrl 51.169.055.263.560.460.971.870.6Cntrl + MODIS 7468646152463934Cases (#) 00-h12-h24-h36-h48-h72-h96-h120-hTime FREQUENCY OF SUPERIOR HURRICANE PERFORMANCE (%)* Percent of cases where the specified run had a more accurate hurricane position than the other run. Note: These cases are for hurricanes in the subtropics.

23. MODIS Polar Winds Real-Time Processing Delays - Frequency of Delays in Wind Retrievals MODIS winds do not meet cut-off of EMC and most regional/limited area data assimilation systems. Possible solution: Direct broadcast to high-latitude X-band station(s): Northern Hemisphere - Fairbanks (NOAA), Kiruna (ESA); Svalbard (EUMETSAT) Southern Hemisphere - McMurdo. Polar winds system development is in progress!

24. Sounder Winds This EOS project also seeks to estimate winds in the polar regions from atmospheric sounders. The methodology for deriving winds from sounders involves estimating the temperature and moisture fields from retrievals, and then applying hydrostatic and dynamical balance constraints; i.e., calculate a thermal wind and correct for mass conservation. A surface wind from a model analysis or from satellite data (e.g., scatterometer) is used, and thermal winds are sequentially added upwards. Wind retrieval methods that have been developed for soundings from TOVS and AMSU will be applied to the polar regions. Improved soundings from AIRS will also be considered.

25. Trends from TOVS Thermal winds have been calculated for 22 years of TOVS data. This unique dataset can be used to examine trends in Arctic circulation, as illustrated below. Trends in total column u and v wind components for the period 1979-2001 show that the polar vortex has strengthened and shifted toward central Siberia.