1. Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: Systems Architecting and the Political Process What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE) Ken Cureton February 2015 cureton@usc.edu

2. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 2 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? 1970s SPACE SHUTTLE ORIGINALLY TO BE BEGINNING OF SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE CONCEPT SOON ECLIPSED AS SHUTTLE NOT FUNDED ALONG WITH THE SPACE STATION –STATION SUPPORT AND RESUPPLY WAS ORIGINAL SHUTTLE JUSTIFICATION –SPACE STATION NOT FUNDED UNTIL 1980s RESULT: –VERY DIFFERENT SHUTTLE THAN ORIGINALLY ENVISIONED –DESIGN HEAVILY POLITICALLY DRIVEN

3. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 3 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? ORIGINAL SPACE SHUTTLE HIGH- CROSSRANGE ORBITER

4. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 4 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? ORIGINAL SPACE SHUTTLE MANNED FLYBACK BOOSTER

5. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 5 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? SPACE SHUTTLE OPTIONS CONSIDERED

6. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 6 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? SPACE SHUTTLE OPTION: ON A SATURN V (APOLLO) BOOSTER

7. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 7 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? FINAL SPACE SHUTTLE DESIGN

8. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 8 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? POLITICAL PROBLEMS! NASA AWARDED SOLID BOOSTER CONTRACTS TO MORTON THIOKOL IN UTAH INSTEAD OF BUILDING/TESTING IN FLORIDA NEGATIVE PERFORMANCE IMPACT! –SOLIDS MUST BE SHIPPED BY RAIL TO FLORIDA, ERGO: –HAD TO BE SMALLER THAN ORIGINALLY ENVISIONED TO FIT INTO STANDARD RAILWAY CARS

9. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 9 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? LOSS OF CHALLENGER JANUARY 1986

10. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 10 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? LAUNCH DAY CONDITIONS: COLD!

11. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 11 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? BOOSTER SEGMENT

12. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 12 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? BOOSTER BURN- THRU

13. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 13 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE? –LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE PROGRAM’S FUTURE –GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING –MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER –LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS –MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED

14. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 14 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM: –CONSTELLATION: NASA AUTHORIZATION ACT OF 2010 BROUGHT PROGRAM TO AN END ON OCTOBER 11, 2010 CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY –FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011 –RELIANT ON RUSSIANS AND OTHERS THEREAFTER

15. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 15 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION (ISS) –BAIKONUR (KAZAKHSTAN) IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO ISS MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020 NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES –DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO USS BY 2017

16. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 16 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM

17. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 17 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR CREW CAPACITY: THREE CREW RETURN MODULE

18. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 18 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR

19. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 19 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? CHINA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT PLAN – FIRST MANNED SPACE VEHICLE: 10/15/2003 – SPACE LABORATORY: 2015 20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3 – SPACE STATION: 2018+ INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017 SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE

20. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 20 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE? NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM –2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX –POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS –APRIL 2014: SPACEX COMMERCIAL DRAGON RESUPPLY SHIP DOCKS WITH ISS

21. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 21 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?

22. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 22 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? X-38 (B-52 DROP TO PARAFOIL LANDING)

23. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 23 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“ MAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet

24. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 24 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLE UNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED

25. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 25 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN “PROTON” LAUNCH VEHICLE

26. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 26 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN “PROTON” BOOSTER BUILT AND LAUNCHED ON TRANSPORTER!

27. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 27 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? NEW “ANGARA” RUSSIAN MANNED LAUNCH VEHICLES –ANNOUNCED BY VLADIMIR PUTIN JULY OF 2013 SCHEDULED FOR 2018-2020

28. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 28 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 2F VEHICLE –SHENZHOU CAPSULE LAUCHER CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT

29. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 29 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? INDIAN “POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE” PSLV UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS

30. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 30 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? The Relationship Between Technology and Politics

31. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 31 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? THE POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE: #1POLITICS, NOT TECHNOLOGY, CONTROLS WHAT TECHNOLOGY IS ALLOWED TO ACHIEVE –BUDGET LIMITATIONS (AMOUNT, COLOR-OF-MONEY) –REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS –SCHEDULE DEADLINES #2COST RULES –SOMETIMES HAVE TO OVERSTATE THE BENEFITS AND UNDERSTATE THE COSTS JUST TO GET A PROGRAM STARTED –PROGRAM FUNDING HAS TO BE RE-WON EACH YEAR –GOVERNMENT RARELY PROVIDES AN OPTIMAL FUNDING PROFILE (PREFERS REDUCED & LEVEL- LOADED FUNDING OVER A LONGER TIME)

32. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 32 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? THE POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE: (continued) #3A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL –EVERY SUCCESSFUL PROGRAM MUST SERVE MULTIPLE AGENDAS –GOVERNMENT LOVES TO DICTATE MULTIPLE- MISSION SYSTEMS #4TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BECOME POLITICAL PROBLEMS #5THE BEST ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE BEST POLITICAL SOLUTIONS –THE “ILLOGIC” OF NEGOTIATION, COMPROMISE AND APPEARANCE

33. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 33 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? OTHER (LESS UNIVERSAL) POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE: TIMING IS EVERYTHING POLITICAL PROBLEMS BECOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS (OR OPPORTUNITIES!) POLITICS PREFERS IMMEDIATE, NEAR-TERM GRATIFICATION POLITICS BELIEVES IN GURUS AND HEROES A CATCHY SLOGAN IS ESSENTIAL TO GETTING ATTENTION PERCEPTION IS OFTEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE TRUTH STAFFERS SHAPE DECISION-MAKING

34. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 34 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE –IN YOUR PRESENTER’S HUMBLE (AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION –U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM): CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING FOREIGN COMPETITION CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING –CUT-OFF OF RUSSIAN LAUNCHES AND SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020

35. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 35 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) –FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION –OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIES OUT OF FEAR INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020 –AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY

36. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 36 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) –FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS: –PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION –NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION –SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORT DOD (AIR FORCE) TO FOCUS ON MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS –DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTER