1. Effects of Bay Shore power plant on ecosystem function in Maumee Bay, western Lake Erie Feb 23, 2009 Toledo Blade

2. University-Agency Collaboration University of Toledo: Christine Mayer: PI, fish entrainment, algal blooms Carol Stepien: fish entrainment genetics Thomas Bridgeman: algal blooms Ohio DNR, Division of Wildlife Jeff Tyson: fish entrainment U.S. Geological Survey Patrick Kocovsky: fish entrainment NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Craig Stow: fish entrainment uncertainty analysis

3. Goal To quantify the possible impact of the Bay Shore power plant (Oregon, OH) on ecosystem function of Maumee Bay, in western Lake Erie Specific Objectives 1.Test whether and to what degree fish entrainment affects important species such as walleye and yellow perch 2.Determine whether heated water from the plant promotes the growth and persistence of nuisance algae such as Lyngbya wollei

4. Bay Shore power plant water intake discharge

5. http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http:// www.epa.gov/med/research_summaries/images/ hoffman_walleye_yolksac.gif Previous estimates done by FirstEnergy show that ~2 billion larval fish pass through plant screens (entrained) each year. Includes walleye, freshwater drum, white perch/white bass, and many other species Fish Entrainment 9 mm walleye Cause for concern to local environmental groups and fishermen Regulated by section 316b of Clean Water Act

6. http://www.toledoblade.com/article/20101120/NEWS16/11190362

7. Billions of fish lost to Lake Erie populations Forage fish lost to plant would support more sport fish Commissioned study showing $30 million dollar annual cost of lost fish “Environmentalist” view Larval fish produced in very high numbers, losses to plant not important Plant has been operating since the 1950s, doesn’t account for recent declines Altering plant with cooling tower would raise utility rates Power company view

8. Approach: Combine net collections for species composition hydro-acoustic visualization for counts What percent of larval fish exiting the Maumee River during the spring are entrained in the plant? Hydro-acoustic unit Echogram showing fish position and size

9. What percent of larval fish exiting the Maumee River during the spring are entrained in the plant? Hydro-acoustic and net samples in main river channel and power plant intake canal Will provide estimate of proportion of larval fish entrained

10. boat 25m June 2009 time In field short time In field long time

11. What is the uncertainty in estimates of numbers of larval fish exiting the Maumee River and how does uncertainty affect estimates of impact to the walleye population? Numbers of larval fish and river conditions are inherently highly variable Dynamic Linear Models will be used to estimate the proportion of larval fish entrained under differing sets of conditions Bayesian statistical framework includes estimates of uncertainty Helpful in supporting effective management decision-making ? ?

12. In 2006 a bluegreen algae, Lyngbya wollei, became established in Maumee Bay forming ~1m thick mats in protected coves This species, from the southern US, may thrive in conditions near the plant’s warm water discharge that elevates spring water temperature and provides an extended winter ice-free period Algal Blooms Ice Open water

13. What is the distribution of Lyngbya wollei in relation to the thermal plume and a reference location? Approach: Collect samples near the power plant and at reference location(s) with rake and dredge Possible reference location(s)

14. Early summerMid-summer Red = Lyngbya absent; Blue = Lyngbya present. Lyngbya sampling 2009

15. What are the relationships between biomass of Lyngbya wollei and environmental variables such as temperature, nutrient availability and substrate type? Approach: Examine statistical correlations between Lyngbya and data we collect on environmental variables X1X1 Y(X 2 ) X1X1 positive negative

16. Mayfly larvae Lyngbya Biota may interact with Algae