1. Model Status Update December 17, 2014

2. Agenda Purpose Model Conceptualization Recap Model Development Model Calibration Status Model Data for Review Next Steps Schedule Public Input

3. Purpose Inform stakeholders on status of model development Provide more detailed information on some of the model components Discuss the model data to be shared for review Discuss next steps and timeline

4. Model Conceptualization Recap 2500x2500 ft grid 7 layers HSPF models Steady-state calibration (2001 and 2009)

5. Model Layers

6. Lateral Boundary Conditions

7. Recharge and Calibration Approach Rainfall and ET HSPF models Steady-state calibration 2001 and 2009 Transient Calibration (2000-2012)

8. Model Development MODFLOW-NWT Springs and Rivers Recharge Package Well Package Calibration Target Data

9. Springs and Rivers GHB and River Package SRWMD HEC-RAS model St. Johns River SW Model

10. Recharge Package – HSPF Models 54 USGS HUC 8 watersheds More than 1800 subbasins Rainfall and PET NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System)

11. MODFLOW -HSPF Interaction Max ET rate for MODFLOW ET Package ( Remaining ET for Active groundwater) Recharge (AGWI + IGWI)

12. 2001 Initial Draft Recharge Input Map Modification may be needed if required through calibration

13. ET Extinction Depth (Modified from Shah et al., 2007) Extinction Depths (ft) under Forest Land Cover Soil TypeHydricPartly hydricNon-hydric sand4.99.814.8 loamy sand5.610.515.4 sandy loam7.512.517.4 sandy clay loam9.814.819.7 sandy clay10.215.120.0 loam12.016.921.8 silty clay14.319.224.1 clay loam16.621.526.4 silt loam16.921.826.9 silt17.422.327.2 silty clay loam18.023.027.9 clay23.628.533.5 Extinction Depths (ft) under Grass Land Cover Soil TypeHydricPartly hydricNon-hydric sand4.96.68.2 loamy sand5.67.28.9 sandy loam7.59.210.8 sandy clay loam9.811.513.1 sandy clay10.211.813.5 loam12.013.615.3 silty clay14.315.917.6 clay loam16.618.219.8 silt loam16.918.520.3 silt17.419.020.7 silty clay loam18.019.721.3 clay23.625.326.9

14. Water Use Data RegionPS/CII/RecDSSAG FL Water Use SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by SJRWMD using parcel data and well construction database and SWFWMD Database SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use GA Water Use Provided by USGS Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use SC Water Use Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use

15. Water Use Summary (MGD) (Draft – subject to change) YearRegionPS/CII/RecDSSAGTotal 2001 FL60486213902 GA/SC362418681272 Total96612710812174 2009 FL55486212853 GA/SC2984410761418 Total85213112882270 2010 FL55685202843 GA/SC302448101156 Total85812910111999

16. Well Package AE wells (Permitted Wells) Well coordinates are known Source aquifer is only one aquifer MNW package (Permitted Wells) Well coordinates are known Source aquifer is more than one aquifer and/or not identified in the database BC wells (Estimated water use) Well coordinates are unknown Water use estimated

17. Calibration Target Wells Data Filling Types (2001, 2009, 2010) (1) Original data > 6 months (2) Filled data > 6 months (3) Filled second data > 6 months (4) PCA data > 6 months (5) Any data < 6 months

18. Calibration Target Baseflows Estimated Baseflows using Observed Flows Baseflows from HSPF

19. Calibration Status (Below Gulf Trough) UFASAS Absolute Mean3.55.8 Standard Deviation5.010.5 Mean-0.62.7

20. Simulated Potentiometric Map Insert a map showing simulated 2001 pot map

21. Data to be reviewed Water Use Geodatabase by the end of this week

22. Next Steps Update Water Use Complete Manual Calibration (2001 and 2009) Run Preliminary WSP Simulations (still in development) Complete PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009) Initiate transient calibration process

23. Schedule End of Jan 2015 - Initial Manual Calibration completed End of June 2015 – PEST Calibration completed

24. Public Input